الصين والهند … بين التقارب والنفور
إعداد: صبرين العجرودي قسم البحوث والدراسات والعلاقات الدولية
مراجعة : الدكتورة بدرة قعلول رئيسة المركز الدولي للدراسات الإستراتجية الأمنية والعسكرية
تونس 04-09-2021
تعتبر الصين والهند أكبر عملاقين اقتصاديين وعسكريين لهما تأثير كبير في المشهد السياسي والاقتصادي في العالم، خاصّة مع الكثافة سكانية الضّخمة والخلفيّة التاريخية والحضارية التي يتميّزان بها، فقد تواصلت تقاليدهما رغم التغيرات الجذرية التي شهدها العالم. لذلك تبدو العلاقة بينهما في غاية من الاهمية بالنسبة للعالم لما تملكه من قدرة على تغيير الموازين، خاصّة بالنسبة للولايات المتحدة الامريكية .
كما تتراوح العلاقة بين البلدين بين التعاون والصراع حسب ما تفرضه المصالح، وهو ما يبيّن تعقيد العلاقة و ضرورة تفكيك عناصرها.
فكيف تسير العلاقة بينهما على مختلف الجوانب خاصّة منها الاقتصادية، و ما هي أوجه التعاون والتنافس بينهما ؟
العلاقة التاريخية بين العملاقين الآسيويين
انطلقت العلاقة الديبلوماسية بين الصين الشعبية والهند في النصف الثاني من القرن العشرين، حيث كانت الاخيرة من بين الدول الاولى التي أحدثت قطيعتها رسميا مع جمهورية الصين لصالح الصين الشعبية مدرجة إيّاها في قائمة الدول الشرعية التي تعترف بها على حدودها.
كان لطريق الحرير منذ العصور القديمة دور في تمتين العلاقة الاقتصادية والثقافية بين البلدين، حيث لم تقتصر التبادلات التجارية على نشر البضائع فقط، بل كان هناك تبادل كبير للثقافات والاديان والافكار، خاصّة ” تعاليم بوذا ” وهي الديانة المنتشرة كثيرا في الهند، ويذكر التاريخ أن البوذية قد عمّت الصين في ذلك الوقت ولم يكن لها تأثير سلبي على المعتقدات والاديان المحلية، بل ساهمت في تطوير افكار وخلق أفكار اخرى وعادات جديدة انتشرت بدورها في شرق آسيا الى حدود القرن الحادي عشر قبل هيمنة “المغول” (Mongols) على الصين و انتشار الاسلام في الهند، حيث تراجع التبادل الثقافي بين الطرفين .
في الفترة ما بعد الاستعمارية، كانت سياسات الدولتين واستراتيجياتهما في السعي نحو بناء الدولة العصرية على الأراضي المتحررة من الاستعمار البريطاني مختلفة تماما في ذلك الوقت.
توجهت السياسية الهندية الى السعي نحو تكريس العدالة الاجتماعية والتطور الاقتصادي من خلال بناء الدولة العلمانية الديمقراطية الفدرالية المعتمدة على سيادة القانون .
كان المعتقد السائد آنذاك لدى ” نهرو” (Nehru)، أول رئيس وزراء في الهند بعد فترة الاستقلال والمعروف بزعماته في حركة الاستقلال، أن بناء علاقة متينة مع الصين سوف تكون له تأثيرات ايجابية وستعزّز الاستقلال والتحرر الذي تعيشه بلاده، ليس ذلك فقط، بل يرى أن الصداقة مع الصين ستؤثر على القارة الآسيوية بأكملها وتقودها نحو الخوض في مسار جديد مختلف عن الذي كانت تعيشه سابقا في فترة الاستعمار.
لم تقم الهند بتحديد موقعها من بين الاطراف المتصارعة خلال الحرب الباردة، بحيث خيّرتتطبيق مبدأ السلم معتبرة انّ وضعها دقيق للغاية خصوصا في تلك الفترة بالذات ولا يسمح لها باتخاذ أي وضعية هجوم أو إعلان للعداء.
في المقابل وضّحت الصين موقفها واصطفّت الى جانب الاتحاد السوفياتي، منتقدة الهند على عدم الانحياز.
وبالرغم من ذلك فقد تواصلت متانة العلاقة بين الطرفين حتّى أنّ الصين الشعبية احتلت مقعد الصين في الامم المتحدة تلبية لرغبة الهند وتجاوزا لموقف الولايات المتحدة الامريكية التي كانت معارضة لذلك بشدّة، كما لم يبدي ماو تسي تونغ (Mao Tsé-toung)مؤسس جمهورية الصين الشعبية أي ردع لتدخّل الهند في تهيئة الاوضاع الخاصّة ببلاده بعد الحرب التي خاضها مع كوريا.
عموما فقد زخرت فترة النصف الاول من القرن العشرين بالعلاقات المتينة والاتفاقيات بين الصين والهند .
علاقات عصرية بين التنافس و التعاون
تعتبر الصين أكبر قوّة اقتصادية في القارة الآسيوية والمنافس الأقوى للولايات المتحدة الامريكية، كما تعدّ ثاني أكبر اقتصاد في العالم بناتج محلي إجمالي بلغ ما يقارب 14.72 تريليون دولارفي عام 2020، أمّا الهند فتتصدّر المرتبة الثالثة اقتصاديا على القارة الآسيوية ب 2.7 تريليون دولار.
في خطوة اقتصادية جيّدة، تمكّنت الصين من افتكاك موقع الولايات المتحدة الامريكية التي كانت أكبر شريك تجاري للهند في السنوات الماضية، لتحتلّ مكانها في عام 2020 وفي العام الجاري، وتبلغ حجم التجارة بين البلدين نسبة 70% بقيمة 48 مليار دولار في الخمس الاشهر الاولى من 2021.
تشير هذه الاعداد الى أهميّة العلاقة الاقتصادية بين العملاقين الآسيويين رغم النزاع السياسي الذي يسود على العلاقة بين الصين و الهند .
ويجمع الخبراء الاقتصاديين، أنّ الصين تمكنت من زحزحة الولايات المتحدة الامريكية نتيجة ارتفاع واردتها من الهند في الاربع الاشهر الاولى من هذا العام، خاصّة من الكميات الكبيرة من الخام الحديد بهدف تحسين بنيتها التحتية الداخلية، ممّا ادّى الى ارتفاع صادرات الهند بنسبة 16% مقارنة بالعام الماضي .
في السنوات الماضية، كانت الهند تعاني من العجز التجاري حيث فاقت نسبة وارداتها من الصين نسبة المنتجات التي تصدّرها لها، لكنّ سرعان ما سجّل هذا الميزان التجاري السلبي تراجعا مع سعي الاخيرة للانفتاح على العالم والتعامل مع المستثمرين لتجنّب أي تراجع اقتصادي لها في الجائحة العالمية .
تؤكد هذه الاوضاع أنّ العلاقات والروابط الاقتصادية لا تتأثر بالنزاعات السياسيّة ولكن المهم هو التوازن بين العرض والطلب لتفادي الوقوع في العجز التجاري .
إلا أنّ التعاملات التجارية الكبيرة بين البلدين لا تخفي رغبة الهند في فك تبعيتها عن الصين أو حتى تخفيض اعتمادها الاقتصادي عليها عن طريق التشجيع على الاستهلاك المحلي، لكن ذلك يبدو صعبا بالنسبة لها وليس بتلك السهولة المتوقّعة خاصة وأنّ أسعار المنتجات الصينية رخيصة وهي مناسبة بالنسبة للهند في ظلّ الجائحة التي تعاني منها جميع الدول.
كما أنّ هناك العديد من المنتجات التي لا تستطيع الهند صناعتها بتاتا إذا لم تتمكّن من استيرادها من الصين، ويؤكّد ذلك عدم قدرة الهند على التخلي الاقتصادي التّام عنها، لكنها تحاول قدر الامكان تحسين إمكانياتها في الصناعة والانتاج المحليين، حيث تمّ توظيف 1.45 ترليون روبية هندية لدعم قطاع الصناعة كانطلاقة لاعتماد الهند على نفسها .
وتبدو أنّ تخوّفات الهند مستمّدة على وجه التحديد من عودة تراجع ميزانها التجاري، إذ يمكن للصين التوقف عن استيراد المواد الخام بعد الانتهاء من تحسين بنيتها التحتية الداخلية ، لذلك تسعى الهند لتصدير منتجات ذات قيمة مضافة عن طريق دعم التصنيع لديها متحدية بذلك الصين .
· الصراع حول الحدود :
يعود الصراع حول الحدود بين الجارتين الهند و الصين الى عام 1959 حيث اندلعت آنذاك انتفاضة التبت، يقع إقليم التبت في جنوب غرب الصين وعاصمته لاسا، حيث يتمتع بحكم ذاتي ويوجد تحت السيادة الصينية، يتميّز هذا الاقليم بعدد كبير من الانهار والبحيرات، مساحته تقارب مليونين ونصف كيلومتر مربع.
في آواخر عام 1913، حدث مؤتمر في سميلا في شمال الهند بين كلّ من بريطانيا، الصين، والهند، وقد تمّ التوصّل الى حلّ مشكلةالحدود بين الهند والتبت وعُرف الخط الحدودي المتفق عليه منذ ذلك الوقت بـ ” خطّ ماكليلان”، إلاّ أنّ الصين عبّرت عن رفضها الشّديد لترسيم الحدود، و دخلت في نزاع مع الهند التي في المقابل وافقت على ذلك .
حافظت التبت على استقلالها الى غاية عام 1950، حينها قامت الصين بالسيطرة على كامل المنطقة، ورغم جهود الشعب التبتي في الدفاع عن أرضهم إلا أنّهم لم ينجحوا في ذلك و أصبح الاقليم ذو حكم ذاتي تحت سيادة الصين الشعبية، لكن وبعد سنوات من الصمت عاد الشعب التبتي للانتفاض في عام 1959، إلاّ أنّ الصين قامت بقمع هذه التطّلعات بكلّ قوتها العسكريّة الى أن أعلنت انتصارها، و نتيجة للحصار والضغط الشديدين على المنطقة فرّ الزّعيم الروحي للمنطقة ” الدالاي لاما “(Dalaï-lama)الى الهند التي أعطته حقّ اللجوء بكلّ طواعية، وقد أثارهذا القبول غضب الصين الشعبية التي اعتبرت أنّ ذلك تحديا لها.
حاولت الهند كثيرا مع الصين الشعبية لتهدئة الاوضاع، ولم تترك أيّ محاولة لتقنعها بقانونية الحدود المرسومة، لكنّها فشلت مع تشبّث الاخيرة بموقفها .
كان عام 1962 النقطة المفصلية الهامّة التي أثبتت جديّة توتّر العلاقة بين البلدين حول مسألة الحدود، فقد قامت الصين بالهجوم مباشرة على التحصينات الهندية في الشمال الشرقي وفي لاداخ و خرجت من هذه الحرب الدامية منتصرة نتيجة الضّعف العسكري للقوات الهندية وعدم تلقيها المساعدات من حلفائها .
أدّى الصراع الحدودي بين البلدين الى تعميق الازمة، حيث تطوّرت العلاقات الاقتصادية والعسكرية بين الصين و باكستان التي تعتبر أكبرعدو للهند في جنوب آسيا، و تغيّرت التحالفات في خضم الحرب الباردة، حيث انحازت الولايات المتحدة الامريكية الى جانب الصين وباكستان لمواجهة الاتحاد السوفياتي، ولم ترحّب الهند بها التّكتل القوي الذي اعتبرته تهديدا لها.
في عامي 1993 و 1996 تمّ التوقيع على اتفاقيات بين الصّين والهند تقرّ بالاعتراف القانوني بالخط الحدودي المتنازع عليه، وبذلك عادت العلاقات الديبلوماسية والاقتصادية بين الطرفين، لكنّ هذا الاتفاق لا يعكس فعليا قناعة الصين بخصوص مسألة الحدود، فقد اعتبر اعترافها ليس إلاّ انطلاقة شكليّة لتسوية العلاقة مع الهند ووضعها في إطار براغماتي لتحقيق اهداف مشتركة من أبرزها النمو الاقتصادي .
مفارقات عميقة
تبدو العلاقات بين الصين والهند غير ثابته ومتراوحة بين الصداقة والعداوة، فرغم احتلال الاخيرة المرتبة السابعة عالميا في قائمة البلدان الاكثر استيرادً للمنتجات الصينية، إلا أنّ الهند قلقة بشأن هذا الوضع الذي ساهم في تفاقم عجزها التجاري مقابل هيمنة الصين عليها وازدياد قوّتها إقليميا وعالميا، لكنّها لا تستطيع بأي شكل من الاشكال مقاطعتها، إلاّ أنّها تنتهج سياسة أكثر قوّة من تلك المخطّطات الاقتصادية التي تعتبر دون جدوى أو ذات تاثير بسيط وهي البرنامج النّووي، فاستمرار صعود الصين هو إقصاء مباشر وتهديد لقوّتها داخل القارة الآسيوية، وهو ما يفسّر التقارب البراغماتي بينها وبين الولايات المتحدة الامريكية .
فمن ناحية تستغل الاخيرة الهند لمحاربة أكبر منافس اقتصادي لها من خلال سعيها لتخفيض حجم التجارة بينهما والعودة الى المرتبة الاولى، ومن ناحية اخرى تسعى الهند لاستغلال قوّة الولايات المتحدة الامريكية وعداوتها اتجاه الصين لتخفيض تبعيتها وحلّ ازمة الحدود التي تواصلت الى غاية اليوم و تطوّرت الى مواجهات عسكرية حادّة .
وما يؤكّد أنّ الموقف الهندي من الصين في الحدّ الاقصى من الجديّة، هو انسحاب نيودلهي في العام الماضي من النقاشات المتعلّقة باتفاقية الشراكة الاقتصادية الاقليمية الشاملة(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) قبل التوقيع عليها في شهر نوفمبر ، فرغم اجماع الدول المشاركة في هذه الاتفاقية بأهمية الشراكة بالنسبة لمصالح الهند، إلا انّ الاخيرة زادت من التّدقيق في ابعادها لتستنتج في النّهاية أنّ ذلك سيضرّ مصالحها الاقتصادية خاصّة وأنّ لديها عجز تجاري مع 11 دولة من جملة 15 دولة عضوة في الاتفاقية .
والنّقطة الاخرى الهامّة بالنسبة للهند ، هو خدمة الاتفاقية بشكل كبير لمصالح الصّين المتعلّقة بمبادرة الحزام والطريق، الذي تتخوّف الهند من نجاحه بشكل كبير بالرّغم من مصالحها المرتبطة به، لكنّ مزيد بروز الصين في القارة الآسيوية واعتمادها على المبادرة للتّأثيرعلى بقية دول القارة المحيطة بها، يمثّل هاجسا بالنسبة لها، و ترى أن مزيد انفتاح الصين وبناء العلاقات مع العديد من الدول سيجعلها في زاوية ضيّقة خاصّة في ظلّ العلاقات المتوترة التي تعيشها مع دول جوارها على غرار المالديف وسريلانكا و النيبال، ممّا سيرسّخ تبعيتها ويساهم في مزيد تراجعها الاقتصادي مقارنة بالصين، لذلك فهي تسعى لمنع أي برنامج قد يساهم في نجاح مبادرة الحزام والطريق .
كما تسعى الهند لاقناع الدول المشاركة في المبادرة بوضع حدّ لتنامي نفوذ الاخيرة على أراضيها واغراقها في الديون، و هو ما تنادي به الولايات المتحدة الامريكية منذ سعي الصين لإحياء المبادرة، كما تحاول الهند تقديم كلّ المساعدات الممكنة للدول التي تسعى الى تحسين اوضاعها بالتعامل مع الصين .
في الجهة المقابلة، رغم إدراك الصين أنّ الهند لا تستطيع قطع العلاقات معها لا سيّما الاقتصادية، فإنّها لا تستطيع الاستهانة بمساعي الهند في كبح جماحها خاصّة وأنّ قوّتها الاقتصادية والعسكرية والاقليمية في القارة ليست قليلة وهي في علاقة وطيدة مع الولايات المتحدة الامريكية.
توظيف الضّغط التّكنولوجي:
لا تستطيع الهند المجازفة بعلاقتها الاقتصادية بالصين للضغط عليها، لذلك فقد وجدت فرصة للقيام بذلك باستغلال العلاقة التكنولوجية، إذ تجتاح شركات الهواتف الذكية الصينية سوق الهواتف في الهند بحصّة تُقدّر لكل من الشركات الصينية الثلاث ” أوبو” ، “فيفو” ، “تشاومي” ب 72% ، كما تحظى الصين باستعمال كبير لتطبيقاتها في الهند، وهي النقطة التي سعت الاخيرة لاستغلالها في الحدّ من صعودها .
لذلك فقد أصدرت الهند أوامر بـ :
- حظر 52 تطبيقا صينيا، مبرّرة ذلك بسعيها لحماية أمنها القومي والمعطيات الشخصية للمواطنين، وقد تمّ التركيز خصوصا على تطبيقتيكتوك (TikTok) الذي تعتبر الهند أحد أهم أسواقه الخاريجية، بحيث بلغت أرباحه داخلها 25 مليون دولار أمريكي .
- منع مساهمات كل من شركة الهواوي (Hiawei) و ZTE في تطوير شبكة الجيل الخامس (G5).
- الحد من الاستثمارات الصينية في الشركات الهندية .
- تشديد قواعد الاستثمار الاجنبي للحدّ من النفوذ التكنولوجي للصين من خلال منعها من السيطرة على بنية الانترنت أو حريّة التصرف في الاسواق الهندية .
- المناداة بمقاطعة الهواتف الصينية ، وتتجدّد هذه المطالب كلّما زاد الصراع الحدودي عمقا، إلاّ انها لم تجدي نفعا وتصدّرت أربع شركات صينية المرتبة الاولى في الهواتف الاكثر بيعا في الصين .
بالتالي تبدو العلاقة بين الصين والهند متشابكة كثيرا في ظلّ التعاون المتين والصراع الكبير، وتسير الهند بخطوات متناقضة وحذرة في منافستها للصين، فمن جهة تقوم بتحسين علاقاتها مع المنافس الاكبر لبكين وهي الولايات المتحدة الامريكية، ومن جهة اخرى تحتلّ الصين المرتبة الاولى في تعاملها التجاري مع الهند والذي لا ترحّب به واشنطن بتاتا.
بالتالي يتضّح للمراقبين الوضعيّة التّي بها الهند والتي تمنعها من التصعيد لأنّ ذلك قد يدمّر مصالحها ويؤثر عليها أكثر من الصين .
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