Department of Research, Strategic Studies and International Relations 19-09-2024

Abdelmadjid Tebboune has secured a second term, but what are the most pressing issues he will face?

While election results often dominate the narrative, the real challenge lies in ensuring a high voter turnout, which can legitimize the political process.

On September 7, 2024, Algeria’s current president, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, was re-elected with a significant 94.65% of the vote. However, provisional figures from the National Independent Authority for Elections (ANIE) revealed that only 23% of eligible voters cast their ballots.

Amid controversy, the Constitutional Court later revised the figures, indicating that Tebboune won with 84.3% of the vote and voter turnout was adjusted to 46%.

Despite the support of major political parties, such as the National Liberation Front (FLN) and the National Democratic Rally (RND), the low voter enthusiasm raises concerns about Tebboune’s legitimacy, which may hinder his ability to address key domestic and international challenges during his second term.

 Domestic challenges: Engaging civil society

The low voter turnout reflects a larger issue: under Tebboune’s leadership, Algerian civil society has been severely restricted. Between 2019 and 2024, numerous media outlets, human rights groups, and civic organizations were shut down. Many activists from the Hirak movement, which led to the end of former President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s 20-year rule, were either forced into exile or jailed. Some remain imprisoned for participating in protests or sharing their opinions on social media.

Currently, around 200 people are incarcerated for these reasons, according to the International Federation for Human Rights.

Several opposition figures, such as Youcef Aouchiche of the Socialist Forces Front (FFS), have called for their release. Analysts suggest that with his new mandate, Tebboune has the opportunity to relax these restrictions. Hasni Abidi, director of the Study and Research Centre for the Arab and Mediterranean World (CERMAM), said Tebboune should adopt a more inclusive approach to governance, noting that civil society is crucial to maintaining stability.

Restoring civil liberties could also boost the morale of Algeria’s youth, who make up two-thirds of the population. Many young people were involved in the Hirak protests and have grown disillusioned with the political situation, contributing to a rise in “harga” (irregular migration) to Europe.

Raouf Farrah, a senior analyst at the Global Initiative, explained in 2021 that the lack of civil liberties and an uncertain future were major drivers of emigration, alongside economic factors. The broader sense of despair stems from deteriorating living conditions and a lack of trust in the government’s ability to implement meaningful reform.

 Domestic challenges: Economic concerns

To address youth migration and general discontent, Tebboune’s government must also tackle Algeria’s economic struggles, which have been exacerbated by the post-COVID-19 world. High inflation, declining purchasing power, and an unemployment rate exceeding 10%, according to the International Monetary Fund, continue to challenge the population.

In 2022, Tebboune’s administration introduced unemployment benefits for people aged 19 to 40, offering a monthly allowance that was increased in 2023. Approximately two million people have benefited from the program.

Tebboune has also promised to diversify the economy, create hundreds of thousands of jobs, and raise public sector salaries. His strategy relies heavily on Algeria’s oil and gas revenues, which have increased due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

According to Abderrahmane Mebtoul, an expert in economics, Algeria’s energy sector, led by state-owned company Sonatrach, remains the backbone of the economy. It supports financial growth, foreign exchange reserves, and domestic spending. However, the future success of Tebboune’s domestic policies will depend on oil and gas prices, as well as rising domestic energy consumption due to Algeria’s growing population, which is expected to reach 51 million by 2030.

Foreign policy challenges

Tebboune will also face numerous regional and international challenges in his second term. He has been a key figure in revitalizing Algeria’s diplomatic efforts, reversing the country’s years of diminished influence under the ailing President Bouteflika.

Tebboune’s focus has been on playing a central role in regional issues, including Palestine, Western Sahara, the Sahel, and Libya. His leadership has raised Algeria’s standing, with the country being elected to the UN Security Council and the Human Rights Council. Algeria also hosted the Arab Reunification Summit and facilitated the signing of the Algiers Declaration for National Unity by Palestinian factions.

However, Tebboune’s foreign policy has faced setbacks, particularly in Mali and Western Sahara. In Mali, the government recently annulled the Algiers Accords of 2015, a peace deal mediated by Algeria between the Malian state and northern rebel groups. Mali has instead turned to the Russian mercenary Wagner Group for assistance in its conflict, which has implications for Algeria’s border security.

The situation in the Sahel is expected to remain a persistent issue for Algeria, as its influence in the region has waned. Algeria’s relations with Niger seem to be on better terms, but restoring ties with Mali may prove more difficult.

In addition, Algeria’s relations with key European countries, including Spain and France, have cooled due to disagreements over Western Sahara. While Morocco considers Western Sahara an integral part of its territory, Algeria views Moroccan actions as expansionist, a stance that has strained relations in the region.

Ultimately, Tebboune’s success in addressing these domestic and foreign challenges will shape the legacy of his second term and determine the long-term stability and prosperity of Algeria.