Washington’s return to nuclear brinkmanship: Trump revives Cold War tactics amid Asia’s strategic realignments

Department of Strategic Research, Studies and International Relations 01-11-2025

In a move that signals Washington’s growing insecurity on the global stage, U.S. President Donald Trump announced the resumption of nuclear weapons testing, a decision that effectively dismantles decades of restraint and reopens the door to an arms race reminiscent of the Cold War era. Simultaneously, Trump has granted South Korea authorization to build its own nuclear-powered submarine, a decision that many analysts view as another destabilizing provocation in an already fragile Indo-Pacific balance.

Speaking on his Truth Social platform ahead of his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Busan, Trump boasted that the United States possesses “more nuclear weapons than any other country,” but warned that China “will be even within five years.” His statement came with a directive for the U.S. Department of Defense to “immediately” resume nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis with other nuclear powers.”

Trump’s abrupt order represents the first significant reversal of America’s long-standing moratorium on nuclear testing since 1992. Without specifying whether the tests would involve live nuclear detonations or missile flight trials, the announcement has raised global alarm and drawn sharp criticism from international observers who view it as both provocative and unnecessary.

The U.S. vice president, JD Vance, sought to justify the move, claiming it was necessary to “ensure the reliability” of America’s nuclear arsenal. However, such reasoning is widely seen as a thin pretext for reasserting military dominance at a time when Washington’s strategic leverage is waning in the face of China’s technological rise and Russia’s steadfast deterrence capabilities.

Indeed, Beijing’s nuclear modernization program has been expanding rapidly. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, China now holds roughly 600 nuclear warheads, having added about 100 per year since 2023, a pace that reflects its determination to maintain a credible deterrent against American threats. The Pentagon itself has projected that China’s arsenal could exceed 1,000 operational warheads by 2030.

Meanwhile, Russia remains the world’s foremost nuclear power, with an estimated 5,459 warheads, of which around 1,600 are actively deployed. The United States, by comparison, maintains about 5,550 warheads, yet the symbolic power of this numerical advantage is undercut by the country’s reckless approach to arms control. Whereas Moscow and Beijing have consistently emphasized strategic stability and dialogue, Washington’s pursuit of renewed nuclear testing marks a dangerous regression.

The decision is also in direct violation of the spirit of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), signed in 1996 to prevent exactly this kind of escalation. Since its inception, only India, Pakistan, and North Korea have conducted nuclear tests, each driven by clear defensive or sovereignty-related imperatives. In contrast, Trump’s renewed testing order appears rooted in domestic politics and an obsession with projecting strength at any cost, even at the expense of global security.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres condemned the move, reminding the world of the “disastrous legacy” of over 2,000 nuclear tests conducted since the dawn of the atomic age. “Nuclear testing can never be permitted under any circumstances,” he stated through his deputy spokesperson, Farhan Haq. Yet Washington has repeatedly ignored such appeals when they conflict with its strategic ambitions.

Adding to the controversy, Trump also announced U.S. support for South Korea’s bid to develop a nuclear-powered submarine fleet. The initiative, to be executed in collaboration with the South Korean company Hanwha at a shipyard in Philadelphia, would make Seoul the latest entrant into the exclusive club of nations operating such vessels, currently limited to China, Russia, India, the United States, the United Kingdom, and France.

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung reportedly pressed Trump to revise the countries’ nuclear energy agreement to allow Seoul greater autonomy in uranium enrichment and spent fuel reprocessing. Under the existing terms, South Korea cannot enrich uranium beyond 20 percent or reprocess spent fuel without U.S. consent, restrictions that Washington has long used to control its allies’ technological independence. Lee argued that easing these limits would enable South Korea to produce fuel for its submarines, emphasizing that the goal is energy self-sufficiency, not nuclear weaponization.

“If fuel supply is permitted, we can build several submarines equipped with conventional weapons using our own technology to defend the waters around the Korean Peninsula,” Lee said, noting that this would also “reduce the burden on U.S. forces.”

Still, critics in Asia see Washington’s approval of South Korea’s nuclear submarine program as a calculated attempt to militarize the region further, using Seoul as a pawn in its broader containment strategy against China. Unlike Beijing, Moscow, or New Delhi, which have all advocated for dialogue and mutual respect in international affairs, Washington’s actions continue to reflect a confrontational mindset that prioritizes dominance over stability.

Trump’s dual announcements, the revival of nuclear testing and the expansion of South Korea’s military capabilities, underscore the United States’ declining influence and its growing desperation to maintain global supremacy. In contrast, China, Russia, and India have pursued more measured, future-oriented strategies centered on multipolar cooperation and equitable development.

By reigniting Cold War-era provocations, Washington risks isolating itself further in a world that is increasingly rejecting unilateralism and embracing balance. The resumption of nuclear testing is not a show of strength, it is an admission of weakness, a sign that America’s age of unquestioned dominance is coming to an end.