US withdrawal from Afghanistan

Department of Research and International studies
The International Center for Strategic, Security and Military Studies
Written by Rabab Hadada
Tunis in 05-07-2021
Reviewed by: Dr. Badra Gaaloul
Translator: Wiem Sayari

The United States of America started a process of reducing its military forces in various regions of the world by following a policy of limiting multiple war fronts after great human and material losses .The obvious changes of the international system and the balance of power between international actors makes the rearrangement of strategies a vital matter for Washington. The withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan and the Middle East is only one of the most prominent features of the military reorganization plan.

Peace Agreement between the United States of America and the Taliban:

The most important withdrawal of American forces from the areas of their traditional military bases was from Afghanistan after two decades. In January 2021 Trump took the first step toward the withdrawal from Afghanistan particularly at the end of his presidential term .He decided to reduce the number of American soldiers to 2500 soldiers after the agreement signed between the Taliban and the United States of America in September 2020 and stipulates the expulsion of the US forces and the Taliban’s commitment not to carry out any attack that affects the security of the United States of America and its allies, as well as committing not to support any extremist group.

After rounds of negotiations, the Taliban and the United States of America signed a peace agreement in February 2020 in Doha, which stipulates the reduction of American forces from 13,000 to 8,000 troops during the 135 days following the signing of the agreement.
It also states that all American forces have to slowly leave Afghanistan in preparation for a total war end only if the Taliban commits the agreement. The parties agreed on a mutual exchange of prisoners with a commitment from the Taliban not to carry out any attack that affects the security of the United States of America and its allies, and not to support any extremist group.
This agreement, like others, was supplemented by a draft amendment to the new president. The White House National Security Council spokesman, Emily Horne, indicated in a statement to the Afghan government that the new administration agrees to the principles of the peace agreement, but it is necessary that the Biden administration first review it. It is going to work on obliging the Taliban to sever its ties with extremist movements, with the need to include provisions that protect women and minorities, as well as establishing a ground of understanding between the movement and the official authorities in order to establish a real and lasting peace.

For its part, the Taliban considered that the review of the agreement by the Biden administration is a direct breach of it, which the Taliban will consider a violation of the agreement, and it will consider the presence of US forces in Afghan territory longer than the agreed period as an “occupation.” The movement’s spokesman in Doha Suhail Shaheen said: “We did not conclude an agreement with The United States for four years, we even concluded an agreement with the United States and its ruling regime, we are committed to the agreement and in case of a violation by the Biden administration, we will re-evaluate our position.”

There was no change in the agreement signed by the Biden administration, which was one of his first decisions. According to the Biden administration, the complete withdrawal from Afghanistan is scheduled to end on September 11, corresponding to the twentieth anniversary of the events of September 11, 2001. The US military deployment began on May 1st to secure the exit of American and NATO forces.

According to the agreement signed on the first of May between the Trump and the Taliban administrations .The withdrawal of US forces is scheduled to end and this is what the movement considered a breach of the agreement and threatens the return of chaos to the region. The movement considered the presence of any foreign soldier after May 1st, 2021 as a “foreign invasion” that gives its fighters the right to take “the appropriate measures”, denying any negotiation with the US administration about its role to prevent attacks by other armed organizations on foreign bases and their soldiers during the withdrawal process.

There are currently about 3,500 US soldiers and 7,000 soldiers from the coalition forces and NATO forces, which also decided to follow the US decision and reduce its military forces and those operating within the framework of the non-combat support mission that began in 2015 in order to train the Afghan forces.

Motives for the US withdrawal:

The American war in Afghanistan is considered the longest in the history of the American army. America experienced a “war fatigue” in the level of funding, military equipment and soldiers. American military expenditures in Afghanistan amounted to approximately $778 billion from 2001 to 2019.

All these losses push the American administration to reduce the military dispersal of its forces and stop the military expenditures that exhausted its budget in side wars not only in Afghanistan but in the Middle East and Africa without achieving the expected goals. America also failed to achieve its political goals. Maintaining control over major global files is no longer possible in the middle of the escalation international pressure.

The escalation of the Chinese-Russian axis has become the biggest threat to American political power. The American president confessed that his country has retreated in the recent years. For that reason, he has begun to rearrange his political cards and to focus directly on the rival alliance.

The United States of America ruled the world according to the system it imposed. Its foreign intervention in various issues came within the framework of consolidating a system in which the United States plays the role of the world’s policeman. The emergence of a different Chinese global system where countries are not followers but partners has become tempting countries and their leaders, especially ambitious countries looking to take their international and regional standing.

As a result, the focus on initiating wars is no longer a strong point for the American side. This policy opened the door to international criticism, especially concerning human rights. Therefore, it supported the withdrawal policy and focused on narrowing the field of China’s activity, especially in the strategic areas of the belt and road initiative. America located its forces in the most important global trade routes and areas of Chinese political influence .What is happening in the China Sea is the best proof of that.

Consequences of the US withdrawal:

The withdrawal of US and coalition forces raises fears of Taliban expansion, terrorist activities, and the integration of al-Qaeda elements into the Taliban movement. The Afghan forces are weak to face all these challenges as they are mainly dependent on foreign forces and external funding. The official forces of the state control only the centers of the regions, while the rest are under the control of the Taliban and other armed groups.

According to the United Nations report, the confrontations between the Afghan authorities and the Taliban claimed nearly 2,346 deaths in 2020 and 1,800 dead and wounded in the first trio of 2021. These numbers may rise because of the existing tensions and the weakness of the Afghan government added to the withdrawal of foreign forces that support it.

The previous security campaigns greatly limited the spread of extremist movements. 2,300 Taliban and Al-Qaeda fighters were injured and 564 were arrested from 6000 fighters. These campaigns will not be so effective after decreasing military presence in the country and will also make civilians a direct target of terrorism and extremism. Military presence is situated in the provinces that are under the control of the Afghan authorities, but this control will weaken and the state will lose some of the territory under its control. The return of chaos and the growth of terrorism will pave the way for the intervention of neighboring countries and regional powers.

With its withdrawal, does the United States want to plunge the neighboring countries into terrorism?

Iran is the most important neighboring country to benefit from the exit of the United States of America from Afghanistan. Historically, Iran has achieved a wide political influence in the country through religious and cultural ties, which it exploited to strengthen its influence on the Afghan ethnic groups. The most important group is the “Hazaras”. It is the largest gathering of Shiites in Afghanistan along with the Qizilbash, the Farswan tribes and the Sidi.

Shiites represent 20 percent of the Sunni majority Afghan people.
The Hazaras group is considered as a political extension of Iran in Afghanistan, especially after the fall of the Taliban regime in 2001.
It strengthened its political influence and gained many government positions .Perhaps it’s going to retain its positions even after the withdrawal of the United States of America. “The Islamic Unity” is their most important party. The number of Hazaras representatives in the Afghan parliament has reached 55, and Iran is likely to have a direct influence on them.

The language factor also created an Iranian-Afghan interaction since the Dari language, which is one of the two official languages in Afghanistan, closely converges with the Persian language in a way that ensures communication between the two nations.

Historically, Afghanistan had a direct impact on Iran’s national security, so the latter is working to maintain its political influence to serve its interests. Since the Soviet control of Afghanistan, Iran has worked to strengthen the anti-communist political parties for fear of the continuity of its political system and the Welayat-e faqih model.

Even after the fall of the Soviet regime and the escalation of the Taliban activity, Iranian interference in the country increased, especially through the persecution of the Hazaras Shiites by the Taliban. The most tragic incident was the 1996 massacre and the assassination of Iranian diplomats in Mazar-i-Sharif.

The exit of the United States of America from Afghanistan will lead to a rapprochement between the Iranian and the American position in the coming period for several reasons. The American withdrawal relieves pressure on Iran, since its military presence in Afghanistan was directly threatening its nuclear programs.

On the other hand, the Taliban is a common enemy. Therefore, the void that the American forces will leave, Iran will work to fill. The escalation of armed groups in Afghanistan with different religious ideologies threatens Iranian security. The Taliban is an extension of the extremist Wahhabi ideology of Saudi origin and the first competitor to Iran and its Shiite orientation. Besides the Shiites, Iran works on approaching other religious minorities and in particular the oppressed Sunnis such as the Tajiks, known for their relation with Iran. The latter also maintained its relations with small armed groups as a strategic intervention card that can be used under any circumstance.

Declining US support for the Afghan government will open the way for Iranian financial support. Iran is one of Afghanistan’s most important economic partners, and the two governments share important interests such as sharing waterways and the file of Afghan refugees in Iran.

For its part, the United States of America left the scene and paved the way for Iran. It is working to reposition its troops to face the Chinese expansion, and Africa is the future space for the Chinese-American confrontation.
The return of terrorist groups in Africa, extremist attacks, military coups and assassinations is nothing but a preparation for field operations and in particular the American intervention.