Understanding the Shifting Dynamics of Control in Syria

International News Department 02-12-2024

Rebel Advances in Aleppo: A New Phase in Syria’s Conflict

Rebel forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have taken significant strides in Aleppo, one of Syria’s key cities. This rapid offensive, launched just five days ago, marks a potential turning point in Syria’s protracted 13-year war. The rebels, pushing southward toward Hama, have intensified tensions and reshaped the battleground.

The Syrian military confirmed a “temporary troop withdrawal” from Aleppo on Saturday, stating that it was regrouping in anticipation of reinforcements for a counteroffensive. Aleppo, the country’s second-largest city, had been under the control of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces since 2016, following a destructive campaign supported by Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah.

Key Players in Syria’s Fragmented Landscape

The control of Syria is divided among four primary groups:

Syrian Government Forces: These consist of the national army and the pro-regime National Defence Forces militia.

Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF): A predominantly Kurdish faction backed by the United States, controlling parts of eastern Syria.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Allied Rebels: Originating from the al-Nusra Front, HTS distanced itself from al-Qaeda in 2016 and now leads opposition offensives.

Turkish and Turkish-aligned Rebel Groups: Operating under the banner of the Syrian National Army, these forces maintain a presence in northern Syria, supported by Turkey.

Sequence of the Offensive

The latest escalation began on Wednesday, coinciding with a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. HTS spearheaded an assault from its base in Idlib governorate, targeting areas in western Aleppo and beyond. The rebel coalition framed the offensive as retaliation for recent attacks by Syrian government forces on civilian areas in Idlib, which caused numerous casualties, including children.

This operation is the most significant since the 2020 ceasefire in Idlib brokered by Turkey and Russia. By Wednesday night, HTS had seized control of at least 19 towns and villages, capturing military sites and advancing westward into Aleppo governorate. The Syrian regime retaliated with artillery shelling, while Russian warplanes launched airstrikes against the advancing rebels.

By Thursday, HTS forces had expelled government troops from additional areas in eastern Idlib and begun advancing toward the M5 highway, a critical route connecting Aleppo to Damascus. On Friday, they penetrated Aleppo city, detonating car bombs and clashing with regime forces on the city’s western front. Reports from a war monitor and rebel fighters indicated that Russian air support was aiding Syrian forces.

By Saturday, visual evidence surfaced online, showing rebel fighters at Aleppo’s iconic ancient citadel as they gained ground within the city. The rebels then shifted their focus southward, but conflicting reports emerged regarding their progress toward Hama.

Implications for Civilians

The opposition has announced initiatives to expand secure zones, facilitating the return of displaced residents from Idlib to newly acquired territories. This move underscores a strategic effort to consolidate gains and establish a broader support base.

This unfolding development signals a critical juncture in the Syrian conflict, highlighting the complexities of territorial control and the interplay of domestic and international forces shaping the region’s future.