Department of Research, Strategic Studies and International Relations 01-10-2024

With only days left until election day, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are actively engaging voters, each targeting swing states crucial to securing a victory. Harris is making stops in pivotal states, while Trump heads to Nevada and New Mexico.

Both figures are focused on winning undecided voters in Wisconsin and North Carolina, where they held competing events. Harris urged Americans to “stop pointing fingers at each other” in an effort to temper tensions after President Joe Biden’s recent remark that seemingly labeled some Trump supporters as “garbage.” In a counter-move, Trump climbed into the passenger seat of a garbage truck labeled with his name, emphasizing the point of Biden’s comment in a literal, visually memorable display.

According to the University of Florida’s Election Lab, over 50 million Americans have already cast their votes, including roughly 29.3 million in-person ballots and 26 million mail-in ballots.

 Latest Polling Insights

The latest polling data from The Economist/YouGov and TIPP Insights, published on Wednesday, shows Harris with a narrow lead of just one point, holding 44 percent support over Trump’s 43 percent. Similarly, a poll by The Washington Post and George Mason University reveals concerns about the potential response of Trump supporters if he loses, recalling the reaction to the 2020 election results and the Capitol riot of January 6.

From a sample of over 5,000 registered voters across key battleground states, 57 percent expressed worry that Trump’s supporters might turn to violence if he loses, while only 31 percent believed Harris’s supporters would act similarly.

National polling by FiveThirtyEight indicates that Harris holds an average lead of 1.4 points. However, this lead falls within the margin of error, showing that the race remains incredibly close.

In swing states, where the outcomes are particularly influential, Harris and Trump are running neck-and-neck. The key battleground states include Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada. According to FiveThirtyEight’s data, Harris’s slight lead in Michigan has increased from a 0.2-point margin to 1 point, and she has also gained a narrow edge in Nevada and Wisconsin, leading there by 0.8 points.

Conversely, Trump maintains a slight advantage in Pennsylvania, increasing his margin from 0.2 to 0.4 points, while his lead in North Carolina has decreased slightly, from 1.3 points to 1.1 points. In Arizona, Trump has a 2.2-point lead over Harris, and he leads by 1.8 points in Georgia.

With margins within two points across six out of seven swing states, each state remains a potential toss-up, emphasizing the competitiveness of this election. Trump’s 2.1-point lead in Arizona, while a slight advantage, still hovers close to the poll’s three-percentage-point margin of error.

 Harris’s Campaigning Focus on Unity

On Wednesday, Harris rallied in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, emphasizing themes of unity and common purpose. “I’m not here to score political points,” she said. “I’m here to drive progress.” Her remarks sought to redirect attention from the controversy around Biden’s “garbage” comment.

The incident began when Biden, on a campaign call with the Hispanic advocacy group Voto Latino, criticized comedian Tony Hinchcliffe’s recent joke describing Puerto Rico as a “floating island of garbage.” Biden’s response included an offhand reference to Trump’s supporters, which quickly drew widespread attention and criticism.

Preparing to depart for Raleigh, Harris told reporters she did not endorse any derogatory comments directed at people based on their voting choices, saying, “I will represent all Americans, including those who don’t vote for me.” During her rallies, pro-Palestinian protesters confronted Harris, calling for action on Gaza. In Wisconsin, she addressed the crowd, saying, “We all want the war in Gaza to end and to secure the release of hostages. I will make sure these calls are heard.” Her firm response drew enthusiastic support from her followers, who nearly drowned out the protesters.

 Trump’s Campaign Stop and His Response to Biden’s Remark

Also on Wednesday, Trump stepped out of his Boeing 757 and into a white garbage truck marked with his name. Wearing a safety vest, he pointed to the truck and, in a jab at Biden’s comment, remarked, “How do you like my garbage truck?”

The controversy around comedian Tony Hinchcliffe’s “floating island of garbage” joke stirred backlash, but Trump distanced himself, claiming he didn’t know the comedian. “I love Puerto Rico, and Puerto Rico loves me,” he declared, sidestepping a full disavowal of the joke but reiterating his support for Puerto Rican voters.

After his brief remarks, Trump left the event, jokingly concluding, “Hope you all enjoyed the garbage truck. Thanks a lot.”

As both candidates double down on their efforts, the days remaining in this election cycle appear critical, with each focusing intensely on securing votes and amplifying their respective messages across the swing states that will decide the election.