Department of Research, Strategic Studies and International Relations 23-10-2024

As the U.S. election nears, both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are intensifying their outreach to Latino voters. On Tuesday, they focused their efforts on this key demographic, and by Wednesday, both candidates will turn their attention to Georgia, a pivotal battleground state. Meanwhile, voters in Hawaii, Missouri, Utah, and Wisconsin have begun early voting, joining a growing list of states that have initiated the process in recent weeks.

Polling data indicates a highly competitive race between the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, and the Republican contender, Donald Trump. Both candidates are running nearly even at the national level and in critical battleground states. On Tuesday, Harris participated in two major interviews, while Trump addressed supporters at a rally in North Carolina after holding a roundtable with Latino leaders.

Below is an analysis of the latest polling information, key moments from the candidates’ campaigns, and a preview of what lies ahead.

Polling Insights: Neck-and-Neck Race

According to recent polling data, the competition between Harris and Trump remains extremely tight. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday shows Harris holding a slight edge over Trump, with 46% support compared to Trump’s 43%. This margin closely mirrors the results of a similar poll conducted the previous week, where Harris led by a 45% to 42% margin.

Despite Harris’s modest advantage, voters expressed growing concerns about the economy and immigration, two issues where Trump’s policies seem to resonate more strongly. Approximately 60% of respondents believe the country is heading in the wrong direction economically, which may explain Trump’s appeal on these fronts.

The polling tracker from FiveThirtyEight further reinforces this narrow divide. As of October 22, Harris holds a slim 1.9 percentage point lead over Trump in national polls. While these figures offer insight into overall voter sentiment, it’s ultimately the Electoral College that will determine the outcome of the election, with seven battleground states poised to play a crucial role.

The margins between Harris and Trump in these key states—Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada—are within the margin of error. Trump holds small leads in Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona, while Harris has slight advantages in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. If these trends persist, Trump could emerge victorious, but any unexpected surge in support for Harris in one of these critical states could shift the result in her favor.

Kamala Harris: Campaign Moves and Media Appearances

On Tuesday, Harris remained active in the media, giving interviews to NBC News and Telemundo. Speaking with NBC from Washington, D.C., Harris addressed potential challenges in the election, stating that her campaign is fully prepared to counter any early victory claims Trump might make. Her focus, she emphasized, remains on securing a decisive win.

Harris sharply criticized Trump’s attempts to undermine the legitimacy of the electoral process, recalling the January 6 Capitol riot as an example of the former president’s disregard for democracy. She also highlighted her campaign’s readiness to respond to any challenges posed by Trump, citing their expertise and resources.

In her interview with Telemundo, Harris shifted her focus to economic issues affecting the Latino community, pledging to strengthen the economy in ways that benefit the working class. She spoke of bringing more capital to underserved communities, underscoring her commitment to fostering equitable economic growth. This interview is set to air on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Harris’s running mate, Tim Walz, rallied supporters in Madison, Wisconsin, where he took aim at Trump’s stamina and erratic campaign speeches. Former President Barack Obama also made an appearance in Madison, urging voters to head to the polls, declaring, “If you haven’t voted yet, I won’t be offended if you just walk out right now [to go vote].” Obama’s remarks were peppered with sharp critiques of Trump, suggesting that the former president was seeking unchecked power and warning of the consequences of another Trump term.

Donald Trump: Rallying and Latino Outreach

On the same day, Donald Trump hosted a roundtable with Latino leaders in Florida, where prominent local Republicans praised his record on issues important to the Hispanic community. According to reports, Harris enjoys strong support among Latino voters, but Trump has been working to secure key endorsements, especially in battleground states like Arizona and Nevada.

John Holman of Al Jazeera reported that Harris leads among Latino voters with 63% support, compared to Trump’s 31%. Trump’s strategy isn’t to surpass Harris in overall Latino support but to win over enough voters in key states to carve out a path to victory. Some signs indicate he may succeed in doing so, particularly among male Latino voters.

During his appearance, Trump took jabs at Harris, implying she was not actively campaigning, and mocked her attempts to portray him as exhausted. He also turned his attention to the Biden administration, accusing it of mishandling classified documents related to Israel’s plans concerning Iran, labeling it a “bad thing” and hinting at internal threats within the government.

Trump further raised the stakes of the upcoming election, warning supporters that if he loses, “we may not have a country anymore.” He closed out the day with a rally in North Carolina, where he criticized Harris’s economic policies and the state’s economic struggles under Democratic leadership.

Looking Ahead: Campaigns Ramp Up in Georgia

As the election looms, both campaigns are set to intensify their efforts in Georgia, a crucial battleground state with 16 electoral votes. Trump currently leads Harris by 1.5 percentage points in Georgia, making it a key focus for both campaigns.

On Wednesday, Harris is scheduled to participate in a town hall event hosted by CNN outside Philadelphia, engaging with undecided voters. Her running mate, Walz, will return to Philadelphia later in the week, his first appearance there since joining Harris’s ticket. Meanwhile, Trump will continue his Georgia push, with plans for additional rallies and events designed to solidify his lead.

In the days ahead, both candidates will vie for every possible vote in these critical battlegrounds, knowing that the outcome in just a few key states could determine the direction of the country for the next four years.