Department of Research, Studies and International News -11-08-2025

As the self-imposed August 8 ceasefire deadline approaches, the United States under President Donald Trump is intensifying its pressure campaign against Russia. However, this latest escalation, through sweeping secondary tariffs, risks boomeranging back on Washington and its Western allies, while also provoking growing frustration in major global powers like China and India.

On Wednesday, Trump’s chief diplomatic envoy Steve Witkoff traveled to Moscow in a final attempt to secure a ceasefire agreement from Russian President Vladimir Putin. Though the meeting concluded with reports that Moscow had requested direct talks with Trump, no breakthrough was announced. The Trump administration, despite repeated claims of being able to end the Russia-Ukraine war in 24 hours, has so far failed to deliver results after months of negotiations, phone diplomacy, and high-level engagement.

Frustrated by what he perceives as Putin’s refusal to accept U.S.-led conditions for a truce, Trump is now threatening a new wave of economic pressure, this time through secondary tariffs aimed not directly at Russia, but at the countries that continue to trade with it.

Weaponizing trade against Russia’s partners

Unlike the initial sanctions wave, over 21,000 restrictions since February 2022, these new tariffs are designed to hit Russia indirectly by punishing its trading partners. Trump hopes that by threatening heavy import duties, he can coerce nations such as China, India, Türkiye, and even European Union members into halting commerce with Moscow.

In mid-July, Trump threatened a 100% secondary tariff on imports from countries doing business with Russia, giving the Kremlin a 50-day ultimatum. When Moscow brushed off the threat, the White House shortened the deadline to August 8.

On Wednesday, the impact of this strategy began to show. The U.S. sharply increased tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 50%, citing New Delhi’s continued imports of Russian crude oil. India, now facing the highest U.S. tariffs alongside Brazil, has firmly rejected Washington’s pressure. Calling the tariff increase “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable,” India reiterated that its energy purchases are dictated by national security concerns for its 1.4 billion citizens, not foreign interference.

If fully enacted, these secondary tariffs would drastically raise the cost of imported goods from targeted countries, doubling prices for a wide range of products in the U.S. and potentially triggering a trade backlash.

Key Targets: China and India

Two of the largest global economies, China and India, are directly in Washington’s crosshairs.

China, Russia’s closest strategic partner, now buys nearly one-third of all Russian exports and accounts for nearly half of its oil exports. India, a longtime friend of Russia, purchased nearly 40% of Russian oil exports in 2023 alone, with 17% of all Russian exports headed to India that year.

Both nations have refused to bow to U.S. demands. In fact, India’s engagement with Moscow continues to deepen. At the same time Witkoff was in Moscow, India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval was also in the Russian capital. Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar is expected to visit later this month, and India has publicly announced plans to host Putin before the end of the year.

Europe’s double standards

Trump’s tariff strategy also risks straining relations with the EU, which continues to maintain significant trade ties with Moscow despite its public alignment with Washington’s stance. In 2024, EU trade with Russia totaled €67.5 billion ($77.9 billion), only slightly less than India’s $68.7 billion in trade during the same period.

Despite sweeping Western sanctions, the EU has actually increased its imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) by 9% compared to 2023, an inconvenient truth as Washington pressures others to reduce their dependence on Russian energy.

Europe has already been hit with a 15% tariff under Trump’s current trade agenda. With further penalties looming, questions are growing over whether Trump is willing to punish his own allies to isolate Russia, or whether his strategy will fracture the Western bloc instead.

Blowback for the U.S.

These aggressive moves could ultimately hurt the U.S. itself. China, India, and Europe are all top suppliers of essential goods to the U.S. economy, from textiles and electronics to strategic minerals and rare chemicals.

Imposing massive tariffs on imports from these nations would not only spark trade disputes but would significantly inflate prices for American consumers. Everyday items, including electronics, clothing, and home goods, would become more expensive. Worse still, the fragile détente in U.S.–China trade talks could collapse entirely if Washington targets Beijing for its Russian ties.

Moreover, Washington itself remains dependent on certain imports from Russia, including uranium hexafluoride, critical for enriching nuclear fuel. The U.S. cannot entirely insulate itself from the repercussions of its own sanctions.

Global resistance to U.S. coercion

Despite Trump’s escalating rhetoric and economic threats, neither China nor India has shown signs of changing course. Both nations have historically resisted Washington’s unilateral sanctions approach and see their ties with Russia as part of broader strategic alignments, not merely commercial transactions.

China, for instance, continues to import Iranian oil despite long-standing U.S. sanctions, and has shown no inclination to distance itself from Russia. India, too, has maintained its independent foreign policy and balanced relations, prioritizing energy security and strategic autonomy over alignment with any single power.

Conclusion

Trump’s aggressive secondary tariff plan is a gamble that may alienate friends, embolden adversaries, and hurt the U.S. economy, all while failing to bring Moscow to heel. The attempt to coerce sovereign nations into isolating Russia risks accelerating the very global shift away from Western hegemony that Washington hopes to prevent.

China, India, and other emerging powers are unlikely to sacrifice their strategic interests to accommodate U.S. demands, particularly when the supposed moral high ground of the West is marred by double standards and self-serving policies. The world is watching, and increasingly choosing its own path.