Trump’s influence reshapes Canadian election as voters head to polls

Department of Research, Studies and International News 28-04-2025

Canadians are casting their ballots today in a federal election heavily shaped by growing anger toward U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive rhetoric and intensifying trade disputes. What was initially predicted to be a straightforward Conservative victory has been dramatically altered by heightened concerns over national sovereignty and economic stability.

Throughout the month-long campaign, which leaders have called the most crucial in a generation, Trump continued to insert himself into Canadian political discourse. In a recent interview with Time magazine, he provocatively suggested that Canada should become a U.S. state, further stoking fears and stirring nationalistic sentiment across the country.

Tragedy also marked the final stretch of campaigning, as a devastating attack at Vancouver’s Lapu Lapu festival, a vibrant Filipino community event, left 11 dead and numerous others injured. Prime Minister Mark Carney, the Liberal leader, paused his campaign to address the nation, expressing deep sorrow and emphasizing the importance of unity through the Filipino principle of “Bayanihan”, the spirit of communal support.

Earlier this year, prospects looked grim for the Liberal Party. Under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, they faced record-low polling numbers, trailing Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre by a staggering 27 points. The Conservatives appeared destined for a historic landslide, bolstered by years of strategic campaigning against the minority Liberal government.

However, Trump’s escalating hostility toward Canada fundamentally shifted public opinion. Mark Carney, who assumed leadership of the Liberal Party just months ago, capitalized on rising fears about national security and economic independence. His campaign message resonated, narrowing the gap dramatically and pushing the Liberals toward a possible majority, a scenario few could have imagined at the start of the year.

Despite the resurgence of the Liberals, many Canadians remain frustrated after nearly a decade under their governance, citing continued struggles with the cost of living and housing affordability. Some voters, like Sam from Ottawa, expressed a desire for change, criticizing Carney’s portrayal as a political outsider and comparing him unfavorably to Trump as another “businessman in politics.”

Meanwhile, Poilievre’s campaign focused sharply on economic hardship, promising a fresh start and drawing large, energetic crowds, particularly among younger voters burdened by soaring living costs. He warned voters against granting the Liberals a fourth consecutive term, arguing that it would mean continued tax hikes, deficits, and unaffordable housing.

Political analysts note an unprecedented generational divide: older Canadians are alarmed by threats to national sovereignty, while younger citizens are primarily concerned with economic survival. This dynamic has complicated the Conservative path to victory, as traditional support among senior voters has weakened.

Smaller parties have struggled for relevance in an election dominated by concerns over Trump’s influence. The New Democratic Party faces significant losses, with leader Jagmeet Singh’s seat at risk, while the Green Party’s Elizabeth May also confronts an uphill battle. Even the separatist Bloc Québécois has been impacted by a surge of national unity sentiment, benefiting the Liberals.

Early voting saw record participation, with over 7 million ballots cast. As polls close, Canadians await results that could redefine the country’s political landscape at a pivotal moment in its history.