The Return of Trump: Far-Reaching Implications for Latin America

Department of Strategic Security and Military Research and Studies 12-12-2024

As Donald Trump prepares to take office for a second term, Latin America faces the potential for a profound transformation in its relations with the United States. The former president’s policies, rooted in nationalism and economic protectionism, are expected to bolster far-right allies, strain trade partnerships, and intensify security measures, leaving both governments and citizens grappling with the potential outcomes.

Empowering Far-Right Movements

One of the most immediate impacts of Trump’s re-election is the invigorated support for far-right leaders across the region. Argentina’s newly elected President Javier Milei, whose policies reflect Trump’s cost-cutting and privatization ethos, has already aligned himself with the U.S. president-elect. Their recent meeting underscored the synergy between their economic visions, signaling a possible deepening of bilateral ties that emphasize austerity and deregulation.

Meanwhile, in Guatemala, conservative figures such as Rafael Curruchiche have openly celebrated Trump’s victory. Curruchiche, an adversary of Guatemala’s progressive President Bernardo Arevalo, views Trump as a kindred spirit in opposing leftist policies. Similarly, in Brazil, supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro, another figure likened to Trump, see his return as a chance to reignite their political momentum.

These developments highlight a larger ideological shift, where right-wing actors across Latin America anticipate greater alignment with Trump’s administration, potentially reversing the gains made by progressive movements in recent years.

Economic Pressures: A Double-Edged Sword

Trump’s trade policies, particularly his preference for tariffs, are poised to create ripples throughout the region. The president-elect has already hinted at imposing 25% tariffs on Mexican imports, leveraging economic measures to pressure Mexico into taking action on migration and drug trafficking. Such tactics, while characteristic of Trump’s “America First” agenda, risk destabilizing trade relationships vital to Latin American economies.

The region’s growing economic ties with China may also come under scrutiny. Trump’s administration could employ trade barriers and institutional leverage, such as IMF negotiations, to dissuade countries like Argentina from deepening relations with Beijing. This approach may force difficult choices on Latin American governments, caught between maintaining trade partnerships with China and avoiding punitive actions from the U.S.

Import quotas may also emerge as a tool to protect American industries, potentially limiting exports from Latin American nations. For example, Trump could pressure countries to reduce beef exports or sever ties with Chinese suppliers, threatening economic stability in nations heavily reliant on these trade flows.

Intensified Immigration and Security Policies

Immigration remains a cornerstone of Trump’s political platform, with his administration likely to adopt even more stringent measures to curb migration from Latin America. Trump’s rhetoric around deploying military force in Mexico to combat drug cartels has alarmed Mexican leaders, who view such actions as violations of national sovereignty. These proposals, while contentious, underscore the aggressive stance the U.S. may take under Trump’s leadership.

In El Salvador, President Nayib Bukele’s hardline approach to gang violence aligns closely with Trump’s philosophy. Bukele’s policies, including mass arrests and the suspension of civil liberties, have gained popularity domestically despite widespread allegations of human rights abuses. Trump’s endorsement of such tactics could embolden other leaders in the region to adopt similarly authoritarian measures, further eroding democratic norms.

The Haitian Crisis and U.S. Disengagement

Haiti’s protracted political and security crisis poses a critical challenge for the region. Following the assassination of President Jovenel Moise in 2021, armed gangs have seized control of vast swaths of the country, creating a humanitarian and governance vacuum. The Biden administration had supported international stabilization efforts, including funding a United Nations-backed mission led by Kenyan police.

However, Trump’s return to the White House is likely to shift U.S. priorities away from such interventions. Analysts predict a withdrawal of financial and logistical support for Haiti, leaving the country more vulnerable to its escalating crisis. While U.S. disengagement might reduce perceptions of foreign interference, it risks further destabilizing Haiti and exacerbating regional migration pressures.

Diplomatic Challenges: Balancing Sovereignty and Influence

Trump’s leadership style, characterized by threats and unilateral decisions, may strain diplomatic relations with Latin American countries. Proposals for military action in Mexico and other hardline policies highlight the challenges of balancing U.S. influence with respect for regional sovereignty. Mexico, in particular, has signaled its unwillingness to acquiesce to measures perceived as infringements on its autonomy.

At the same time, Trump’s focus on transactional relationships could marginalize efforts to address root causes of instability in the region, such as poverty, corruption, and weak governance. This short-sighted approach may yield immediate political gains for the U.S. but risks undermining long-term stability and cooperation in Latin America.

Conclusion: A Region at a Crossroads

Donald Trump’s second term as U.S. president is poised to reshape Latin America’s political and economic landscape. By strengthening far-right allies, applying economic pressures, and intensifying migration and security policies, his administration will test the resilience of democratic institutions and regional cooperation. As Latin America braces for these changes, the stakes for diplomacy, trade, and human rights remain higher than ever, leaving the region at a critical crossroads in its relationship with the United States.