Department of Research, Studies and International News 29-01-2025

The ceasefire brokered between Israel and Hezbollah was expected to bring about a complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Lebanese territory within 60 days. However, the timeline has expired, and Israeli forces remain entrenched in parts of southern Lebanon, raising concerns about the ceasefire’s implementation and effectiveness.

A Violent End to the Ceasefire Period

On the day designated for Israeli forces to withdraw, tragedy struck as Lebanese health officials reported the deaths of at least 15 individuals in southern Lebanon. The Lebanese Ministry of Public Health stated that the Israeli military opened fire on civilians attempting to return to their homes, injuring at least 83 others. These incidents, described as violations of the ceasefire agreement, add to the escalating violence that has marked the truce period since its initiation in November.

While the ceasefire significantly reduced the frequency of daily assaults on southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley, and Beirut’s southern suburbs, Israeli forces maintained their presence in border villages under the pretense of conducting demolition operations. This continued occupation has sparked widespread outrage and questions about the adherence to the agreement’s terms.

Key Provisions of the Ceasefire Agreement

The ceasefire arrangement required Hezbollah to retreat beyond the Litani River in southern Lebanon, while Israel was obligated to withdraw all troops within 60 days. Following the withdrawal, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) and the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) were to take control of the region, ensuring stability and preventing further conflict. Additionally, the agreement stipulated that the LAF would serve as the sole armed presence in the area.

However, as the deadline passed, Israeli forces remained stationed in southern Lebanon, citing various reasons for the delay. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defended the continued presence, claiming that Hezbollah had not fully complied with the terms by failing to withdraw from the border areas. Lebanon refuted these accusations, urging Israel to honor the agreement.

Expiration and Delayed Withdrawal

The ceasefire officially expired at 02:00 GMT on Sunday, marking the deadline for Israel’s withdrawal. Despite this, reports indicated that Israeli troops had vacated only certain parts of southern Lebanon while preparing to maintain control over strategic points in the southeast. UN sources confirmed that Israel’s military operations in the region showed no signs of full compliance with the agreement.

Blame for the impasse has been exchanged between both sides. Israel alleged that the Lebanese Armed Forces were too slow in deploying to the southern territories, a claim Lebanon vehemently denied. UNIFIL called on both parties to adhere to the ceasefire’s terms, urging restraint and cooperation.

Widespread Violations of the Ceasefire

The ceasefire period was marred by numerous breaches attributed to Israel. According to investigative reports, Israel violated the agreement hundreds of times through aerial and ground incursions. The Anadolu Agency documented at least 660 violations, while a U.S.-based think tank estimated over 800 instances of Israeli airspace intrusions.

These actions included demolishing civilian homes and seizing new areas previously inaccessible to Israeli forces. Lebanon’s Health Ministry reported that 90 civilians were killed during the truce, with many others displaced from their homes due to ongoing military operations. Satellite imagery and videos corroborated evidence of Israel’s aggressive maneuvers, which undermined the agreement’s intent.

Lebanon’s Response and International Reactions

Lebanon’s leadership has repeatedly called on Israel to uphold its commitments. President Joseph Aoun, himself a native of southern Lebanon, assured residents of his dedication to protecting their sovereignty and territorial integrity. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam expressed confidence in the Lebanese Armed Forces’ ability to secure the south, while Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri appealed to the international community for support in pressuring Israel to withdraw.

French President Emmanuel Macron also weighed in, urging Israel to honor the terms of the ceasefire during a conversation with President Aoun. Similarly, the UN’s special coordinator for Lebanon, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, alongside UNIFIL’s leadership, emphasized the need for both sides to comply with the agreement to prevent further escalation.

Despite the ceasefire, thousands of displaced Lebanese civilians attempted to return to their villages in the south. However, Israel declared large areas as restricted zones, including key villages like Shebaa, Marjayoun, and Qantara, preventing residents from reclaiming their homes. On the eve of the ceasefire’s expiration, residents mobilized in groups to march toward their villages, only to face resistance from Israeli forces, including gunfire that further heightened tensions.

Videos circulating on social media revealed harrowing scenes of villagers confronting Israeli tanks and soldiers, often fleeing under the threat of violence. Others raised Hezbollah and Amal flags as symbolic acts of defiance, reflecting the deep-seated resentment and determination among the local population.

Israel’s continued presence in southern Lebanon highlights its broader strategy to reshape the region’s political and military dynamics. According to political analyst Imad Salamey, Israel aims to neutralize perceived threats from Hezbollah, particularly in the aftermath of Syria’s destabilization. By retaining strategic control, Israel seeks to prevent Hezbollah from regaining its former strength and influence.

As the situation remains tense, the Lebanese Army has established checkpoints near southern villages to manage the flow of returning residents and maintain order. However, the ongoing Israeli presence and lack of a definitive resolution signal prolonged instability in the region.

The international community continues to watch closely, with calls for both Israel and Hezbollah to respect the ceasefire terms. The future of southern Lebanon hangs in the balance, as the fragile truce threatens to unravel, leaving civilians caught in the crossfire of geopolitical disputes.