The Future of Submarine Warfare… From Aircraft Carriers to the Era of Submarines

Written by Faten Jebari: Department of Research, Security and Military Studies

Tunis, March 8, 2024

The superiority of the United States in wars has long been known through its “Midway Strategy” utilizing its fleet of aircraft carriers, which traverse the oceans and seas, imposing military dominance over other nations and providing protection to allied countries, thus declaring an international arms race.

However, the era of aircraft carriers seems to be gradually fading, and within the next decade, we may not see any significant impact from them in the Red Sea, the Arabian Gulf, or the Strait of Hormuz.

Observers anticipate, according to a report by “Popular Mechanics” magazine, the decline of aircraft carriers that emerged since 1945, surpassing nuclear-powered warships, as experience has proven their ineffectiveness in combat situations against enemy barrages, whether in offense or defense.

Additionally, aircraft carriers are ill-equipped to handle a new generation of offensive weapons, including high-speed torpedoes, anti-ship ballistic missiles, and supersonic weapons. The possibility of these carriers becoming obsolete in the face of modern warfare is highly likely, prompting experts to propose some intriguing ideas about potential replacements.

The Submarine Era and the terror of Technology Challenges American Capacities

The American warship “Gerald Ford” symbolizes the strength of the American military arsenal, costing $13 billion as a standalone vessel, excluding the 74 aircraft comprising its air crew, from Super Hornets fighters to MH-60R Seahawk helicopters, costing an additional $5 billion. This is in addition to maintenance expenses, surpassing $44,000 per hour for the F-35C aircraft produced by Lockheed Martin.

Nevertheless, China has worked to undermine any notion of technological superiority held by America, developing weapons faster and more powerful, capable of destroying aircraft carriers. China has developed the DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile and the DF-17, which travels faster than the speed of sound.

In its conflict with Taiwan, the United States realizes that submarines, as the sole weapons platform and alternative to aircraft carriers, can inflict the most damage on any Chinese invasion force heading towards Taiwan. However, the United States lacks the sufficient capability to carry out these tasks.

A Russian-Chinese Fleet With a Terrifying International Impact

Submarines are stealthy vehicles capable of carrying a variety of weapons—both nuclear and non-nuclear—capable of maneuvering, stealth, striking, and conducting covert operations.

During the Cold War, the Russian Navy relied on submarines that proved extraordinarily effective in secret intelligence missions, a trend that continues today.

The Russian military industry works to strengthen its submarine fleet, incorporating 12 strategic nuclear submarines of the “Yasen” class.

The Russian news agency “TASS” states: “In the near future, the process of manufacturing 3 new Yasen-class submarines will be initiated for the Russian Navy, in addition to previously manufactured submarines under Projects 885, M885, and 85MA.

With these submarines, the navy will possess the most powerful submarine fleet, some of which will operate for the Northern Fleet, and others for the Pacific Fleet.

 Currently, the Russian Navy operates the strategic nuclear submarine developed under the government project ‘885,’ known as ‘Severodvinsk,’ in addition to the ‘Kazan’ and ‘Novosibirsk’ submarines developed under Project 885M, which are undergoing final testing stages and are expected to join service before the end of this year.

Now, the Chinese Navy possesses about 49 fast attack submarines, 14 submarines armed with ballistic missiles, and four submarines equipped with guided missiles, with these assets deployed worldwide, operating in various theaters at any given time.

Through this elucidation, it becomes evident that the United States is no longer capable of responding to any Chinese threat regarding Taiwan or securing American interests elsewhere since the U.S. Navy lacks fast attack submarines.

Conclusion:

The American naval strategy, which has focused on aircraft carriers since World War II, has become outdated in today’s multi-threat environment.

With China, Russia, and others developing effective countermeasures such as weapons exceeding supersonic speed and anti-ship missiles, American aircraft carriers have become vulnerable targets.

As competitors adopt “anti-access/area denial” strategies, the likelihood of American aircraft carriers being sunk in a potential conflict increases, indicating a pressing need for change in American naval tactics.

The Pentagon seems unable to halt aircraft carriers, even if it means these technological marvels will be at the expense of adapting American naval strategy to confront the Chinese challenge.

The longer the U.S. Navy fails to adapt to the current reality, where aircraft carriers are costly and clearly vulnerable to massive Chinese missile threats, the greater the likelihood of the United States losing any open engagement with either the Chinese or Russian military alike.