Department of Research, Strategic Studies and International Relations 19-12-2024

The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden during the 31st APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting in Lima marked a critical juncture in Sino-U.S. relations. During this encounter, President Xi delineated four non-negotiable red lines: Taiwan, democracy and human rights, China’s developmental path and political system, and China’s right to development. These principles represent the foundation of China’s core interests and have significant implications for the stability and future trajectory of bilateral relations. By exploring these red lines in depth, this study aims to analyze their strategic importance and propose a Chinese perspective on the steps necessary for fostering a constructive and stable relationship with the United States.

Taiwan: The First Red Line

Taiwan remains the cornerstone of China’s core interests and represents the first and most critical red line in Sino-U.S. relations. The One-China principle, supported by the three joint communiqués between China and the U.S., forms the political bedrock of bilateral ties. Any deviation from this principle risks severe destabilization. For China, Taiwan is not just a territorial issue but a matter of national sovereignty and reunification—goals deeply rooted in Chinese history and national pride.

From the Chinese perspective, the United States’ ambiguous stance on Taiwan, including arms sales and unofficial interactions with Taiwanese authorities, undermines peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. The U.S. must explicitly reject “Taiwan independence” and support peaceful reunification. Failure to respect this red line would not only strain relations but could lead to profound geopolitical and economic consequences.

Democracy and Human Rights: Navigating Differences

The second red line revolves around democracy and human rights. These issues have historically been points of contention in Sino-U.S. relations, often exacerbated by differing political ideologies. From China’s perspective, discussions on democracy and human rights should be rooted in mutual respect and equality. The use of these narratives as tools to exert pressure or interfere in China’s domestic affairs is seen as a violation of its sovereignty.

China views its governance model as a reflection of its historical, cultural, and socio-economic realities. Thus, any attempt to frame the bilateral relationship as a battle between “democracy and authoritarianism” is not only reductionist but also counterproductive. Constructive dialogue on these issues should aim to bridge differences rather than deepen divisions.

Developmental Path and Political System: Respect for Sovereignty

The third red line highlights the need for mutual respect for each nation’s chosen developmental path and political system. China emphasizes that its system, characterized by socialism with Chinese characteristics, is a product of its unique history and societal needs. Attempts by external actors to impose their values or challenge China’s political structure are seen as direct threats to its sovereignty and stability.

China acknowledges that systemic differences with the U.S. are inevitable but insists that these differences should not translate into hostility or attempts at regime change. For a stable relationship, both sides must adopt a pragmatic approach that focuses on coexistence and cooperation rather than ideological competition.

Right to Development: A Global Perspective

The fourth red line underscores China’s unwavering commitment to its right to development. For China, economic growth and technological advancement are not merely national priorities but are integral to its global aspirations. Trade wars, technological decoupling, and other forms of economic coercion by the U.S. are perceived as attempts to stifle China’s progress.

From a Chinese standpoint, its development presents opportunities rather than threats. The narrative that views China’s rise as a zero-sum game overlooks the mutual benefits of economic interdependence. The U.S. must adopt a more rational and objective perspective, recognizing that cooperation with China can yield significant global benefits, particularly in addressing shared challenges such as climate change and global health.

Strategic Implications and Recommendations

Avoiding Historical Pitfalls

Historical precedents illustrate the dangers of great-power conflicts, often stemming from miscalculations and provocations. The U.S. should heed the lessons of the Cold War and avoid framing its relationship with China as a zero-sum competition. Adopting such an approach risks self-fulfilling prophecies of conflict that could have catastrophic consequences for both nations and the broader international community.

Translating Commitments into Actions

During their meeting, President Biden’s assurances that the U.S. does not seek a new Cold War, regime change, or conflict with China were positive signals. However, China emphasizes that actions must align with words. Concrete steps, such as reducing military activities near Chinese borders and refraining from interfering in Taiwan-related matters, would build trust and stabilize relations.

Fostering Dialogue and Cooperation

Dialogue remains the most effective tool for managing differences and preventing misunderstandings. Establishing high-level communication mechanisms and institutionalizing regular consultations on sensitive issues can help defuse tensions. Additionally, identifying areas of mutual interest—such as climate change, public health, and global economic recovery—can foster constructive engagement and reinforce the importance of cooperation over confrontation.

Conclusion

The four red lines articulated by President Xi serve as both a reminder and a guidepost for the United States to navigate its relationship with China. Respecting these principles is not only essential for maintaining stability but also for unlocking the potential of a mutually beneficial partnership. From China’s perspective, a future where dialogue and cooperation prevail over confrontation and conflict is both desirable and achievable. However, this vision requires the U.S. to approach the relationship with a clear understanding of China’s core interests and a genuine commitment to respecting them. Only then can the two nations contribute to a stable, prosperous, and harmonious global order.