The Fall of Al-Assad: A Geopolitical Crisis Unfolds

International News Department 11-12-2024

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has publicly addressed the fall of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, labeling it a strategic conspiracy orchestrated by the United States and Israel. Speaking in Tehran, Khamenei described the event as a “joint American-Zionist plot” and attributed complicity to a “neighboring state,” though he refrained from naming the country. Observers speculate this may refer to Turkiye, which has historically supported opposition forces in Syria.

The swift rebel offensive that culminated in Damascus marked the end of the Assad family’s decades-long reign. Despite significant backing from Iran and Russia, including military, political, and logistical support, al-Assad was unable to withstand the coordinated efforts of rebel factions. The fallout disrupted the Iran-led “axis of resistance,” a coalition opposing U.S. and Israeli regional influence.

Iranian intelligence reportedly warned the Syrian government of imminent threats over the past months, but these warnings went unheeded. In response to the collapse, the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami, confirmed that Iranian forces have withdrawn from Syria, signaling a strategic recalibration.

In the aftermath, U.S. President Joe Biden highlighted America’s multifaceted role in supporting Israel’s campaigns in Gaza and Lebanon, backing Syrian opposition groups, and maintaining military presence in northeast Syria. He also pointed to the war in Ukraine as a factor that strained Russian support for Assad, weakening Moscow’s capacity to sustain its Syrian ally.

The geopolitical consequences have been profound. Israel has intensified its air campaigns across Syria, targeting strategic military sites, and has moved forces into key demilitarized zones. Meanwhile, Iranian officials, including Khamenei, have downplayed the collapse’s impact on Tehran’s regional influence, asserting that resistance movements will grow stronger under pressure.

Iran has called for a unified Syrian government representing all factions to stabilize the region, emphasizing the enduring alliance between Tehran and Damascus. While the future of Syria remains uncertain, the fall of Assad signals a transformative moment in Middle Eastern geopolitics, with reverberations likely to persist for years.