The Border Battle: How Immigration Policies Could Decide the Next U.S. Election

By Hibaterahmen Boussenna, Department of International Relations and Strategic Affairs 

16/07/2024   

Introduction :

This year is critical for democracy, with roughly half of the world’s population living in countries holding elections. These contests are being held at a time when international migration is at a record high and has emerged as a central topic in electoral campaigns.

 In the United States, United Kingdom, European Union, and India, political debates have consistently revolved around border security and immigration policies. The upcoming 2024 U.S. election is no exception, increasingly framed in the language of migration and border crises.

The Mexico–United States border crisis, an ongoing issue in North America, highlights the complexities of migration, with illegal immigrants arriving from Latin America and other countries, including China, through Mexico and into the United States. This situation has not only strained resources and policies but has also become a focal point in political discussions, impacting how candidates shape their platforms and address voter concerns.

But what do American voters really think about immigration, and how will these sentiments shape the election?

What are the contrasting immigration policies of Donald Trump and Joe Biden?

How could these policies sway voter decisions and shape the future direction of the nation?

Surge in Migration at the U.S. Southern Border: A Growing Crisis:

The last few decades have seen periodic surges at the U.S. southern border, each prompting intense political debate on the best course of action. As the crisis continues to evolve, it has become a central issue in political campaigns and public discourse, influencing policy decisions and voter sentiment.

During the pandemic, crossings had significantly decreased, but the recent surge has brought the issue to the forefront of public concern.Migrant encounters at the Mexico–U.S. border began to surge in late 2020, reaching a record number of 1.73 million migrant encounters in fiscal year 2021, 2.76 million in fiscal 2022, and more than 2.8 million in fiscal year 2023. This influx has highlighted not only the scale of the crisis but also the complex and evolving nature of migration patterns.

The scenes coming from the border, and from many U.S. cities that have been touched by the migrant crisis, have helped elevate the issue in voters’ minds.

What do American voters really think about immigration?

Public attitudes towards immigration policy in both Europe and the United States have shown notable stability over the past decade. These enduring attitudes are deeply rooted in early-life socialization, psychological predispositions, and broader political orientations. The serve as a foundational lens through which individuals evaluate immigration issues, shaping their perceptions of policies related to border control, refugee resettlement, and pathways to citizenship.

Political leaders and policymakers recognize the persistence of these attitudes, incorporating this understanding into their communications with the public and strategic planning, especially in electoral contexts.

American attitudes towards immigration:

Based on recent data, American attitudes towards immigration reflect a nuanced perspective influenced by various factors.

A majority of Americans continue to view immigration as beneficial for the country. However, there has been a slight decline in this sentiment from previous years.

Despite general support for immigration, significant concerns persist regarding its impact. These concerns primarily center around perceived effects on crime rates, drug problems, and economic factors such as taxes and job competition. This indicates a complex interplay between the perceived benefits and potential drawbacks of immigration.

Moreover, Americans tend to differentiate their views based on whether immigration is legal or illegal. Polling suggests higher levels of support for legal immigration pathways compared to unauthorized immigration.The nuanced nature of American public opinion on immigration presents challenges and opportunities for political leaders, particularly in the context of upcoming elections.

Joe Biden’s Immigration Policies and Election Promises:

Since taking office, President Joe Biden has implemented several changes to immigration policies, focusing on reversing many of the hardline measures from the Trump administration.

“The Statue of Liberty is not some relic of American history. It still stands for who we are,” Biden said at the White House, as he articulated his Democratic Party’s line on immigration – a hot-button issue in the country.

One of the notable actions was the lifting of Title 42, a policy that allowed for the rapid expulsion of migrants during the COVID-19 pandemic. Since its repeal in May 2023, Biden has introduced a “Circumvention of Lawful Pathways” rule to manage asylum claims more systematically. This rule encourages migrants to use legal entry points and disqualifies those without proper appointments from claiming asylum.

Biden’s policies also include expanding family-based immigration by increasing per-country caps and clearing application backlogs. For refugees, he significantly raised the cap from 18,000 during the Trump administration to 125,000 for the fiscal year 2022.

Additionally, Biden has proposed legislation to boost employment-based green cards, eliminate per-country caps, and increase the annual number of diversity visas from 50,000 to 80,000.He has also worked on increasing the capacity for detention and implementing programs like the Family Expedited Removal Management (FERM) to handle the growing number of migrant families.

Despite these efforts, Biden faces challenges with the high number of irregular arrivals and the strain on processing resources.

His administration has also faced criticism from both sides: from those who believe these policies are too lenient and those who feel they don’t go far enough in protecting immigrants’ rights.

Donald Trump’s Immigration Policies and Election Promises:

Former President Donald Trump’s (also a candidate for the 2024 election) immigration policies were marked by a focus on strict enforcement and border security. His administration implemented the “zero tolerance” policy, which led to the separation of thousands of migrant children from their families at the border, sparking widespread outrage and criticism. Trump also worked to limit both legal and illegal immigration through measures such as building a border wall, reducing refugee admissions, and implementing travel bans on several predominantly Muslim countries.

During his presidency, Trump implemented measures such as building the border wall and enforcing Title 42, which resulted in a significant number of expulsions. His administration capped refugee admissions at record lows and attempted to eliminate the diversity visa program.

Trump has continued to advocate for these hardline measures, promising to reinstate and expand them if re-elected. He has pledged to finish building the border wall, reinstate Title 42 or similar measures, and continue reducing legal immigration pathways.

He argues that these policies are necessary to protect American jobs and security. However, these measures have been highly polarizing, with supporters praising his tough stance on immigration and opponents condemning the policies as inhumane and discriminatory.

The Immigration Crisis and Its Potential Impact on the 2024 Elections:

The ongoing immigration crisis, coupled with the contrasting approaches of President Biden and former President Trump, is likely to be a pivotal issue in the 2024 elections as it continues to polarize public opinion in the U.S.

Biden’s efforts to reverse “Trump-era” measures and implement more humane immigration policies, such as reversing family separations and proposing pathways to citizenship, have garnered support from progressive and liberal voters who prioritize human rights. However, criticisms over border management and enforcement effectiveness persist, potentially alienating moderate and undecided voters.

On the other hand, Trump’s stringent immigration policies and emphasis on border security continue to rally his base, emphasizing national security and law enforcement.This stark division in immigration strategies underscores a broader ideological battle that could significantly influence voter turnout and preferences, ultimately shaping the outcome of the next presidential election.