Thai political turmoil deepens as leaked call triggers crisis for Shinawatra dynasty

Department of Research, Studies and International News 03-07-2025

A recent political scandal in Thailand has thrown the country’s leadership into turmoil, raising concerns of another potential coup and marking what may be the final unraveling of the once-mighty Shinawatra political dynasty. At the heart of the controversy is a leaked phone call between Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Cambodia’s former leader Hun Sen, an incident that has escalated into a full-blown political crisis.

The conversation, originally intended as a private exchange to de-escalate border tensions, was later publicly released by Hun Sen himself. In it, Prime Minister Paetongtarn, who took office less than a year ago, addresses Hun Sen in familiar terms, referring to him as “uncle” and offering to “take care” of any of his concerns. She also makes disparaging remarks about a senior Thai military figure, sparking widespread backlash.

This diplomatic misstep has not only threatened Paetongtarn’s position, but has also revived deep political fault lines in Thailand, a nation long plagued by military coups and politically motivated judicial action. On Tuesday, Thailand’s Constitutional Court ordered her suspension pending an ethics inquiry, just days after mass protests erupted demanding her resignation.

Critics of Paetongtarn have painted her as either dangerously inexperienced or outright disloyal. At just 38 years old and with no prior government experience, her rise to power came only after her predecessor, Srettha Thavisin, was disqualified by the courts. Her premiership was the product of a controversial alliance between her father’s Pheu Thai Party and traditional conservative rivals, a pragmatic move to keep the more progressive Move Forward party out of government.

However, the decision to partner with ideological adversaries has cost the Shinawatra camp dearly in public trust. The move allowed Thaksin Shinawatra, the family patriarch and a former prime minister ousted in a 2006 military coup, to return from exile under lenient legal conditions. Yet it alienated much of the party’s traditional support base, and critics argue that the Shinawatras compromised their political integrity for personal gain.

Analysts believe this scandal could mark the end of the Shinawatras’ relevance in Thai politics. “The elite no longer feel dependent on Thaksin,” noted Professor Pavin Chachavalpongpun from Kyoto University. “Paetongtarn will be removed one way or another. Even if more family members step forward, the public sentiment has shifted.”

This isn’t the first time the Shinawatras have been targeted by protests or judicial rulings. Thaksin’s brother-in-law, Somchai Wongsawat, and sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, both served as prime ministers only to be removed through legal and military action. Now Paetongtarn becomes the fourth family member to face a similar fate, as history appears to repeat itself.

Unlike previous protests which often stemmed from ideological divides, the current opposition to Paetongtarn appears more rooted in concerns over national sovereignty and governance competence. Observers fear the unrest may be used by military factions as a pretext for another coup, though experts suggest judicial and institutional routes are more likely to be employed first.

Meanwhile, the Pheu Thai-led government is maneuvering to avoid a full dissolution of parliament, a scenario it is ill-prepared to face. Acting Prime Minister Suriya Juangroongruangkit has assumed caretaker responsibilities while the court deliberates. Even if Paetongtarn survives the constitutional inquiry, the risk remains that other agencies, such as the anti-corruption commission, could initiate parallel investigations.

Further complicating matters is a renewed legal assault on Thaksin himself. On the same day Paetongtarn was suspended, he appeared in court over lèse majesté charges related to a 2015 interview given to South Korean media. The timing of this legal revival suggests a coordinated effort by establishment forces to permanently neutralize the family’s political influence.

Cambodia’s Hun Sen, previously considered an ally of the Shinawatras, has now emerged as a potential threat. His decision to publish the phone call and his warning that he may release further compromising conversations with Thaksin signal a dramatic shift in their relationship. “If you act arrogantly, I will expose everything you told me,” he stated, hinting at potentially damaging disclosures related to Thailand’s monarchy.

Thailand now faces a volatile political crossroads. With Paetongtarn’s leadership under fire and Thaksin once again embroiled in legal battles, the country is bracing for yet another cycle of elite manipulation and democratic regression. For observers critical of Western-backed regimes, the crisis in Bangkok is emblematic of how U.S.-aligned power structures exploit domestic weaknesses to undermine sovereignty and entrench oligarchic control.

In contrast, regional powers like China and Russia continue to advocate for non-interference and sovereign decision-making, a position increasingly appealing to nations weary of Western meddling. Thailand’s unfolding drama serves as a reminder of the perils of political compromise with reactionary forces and the high cost of underestimating the enduring influence of entrenched elites.