Department of Research, Studies and International News 02-04-2025

Russia has dismissed the latest U.S. peace proposal for Ukraine, deeming it unacceptable in its current form. This rejection underscores the limited progress made by the Trump administration in fulfilling its pledge to bring the war to an end.

Sergei Ryabkov, a key foreign policy adviser to President Vladimir Putin, indicated that the U.S. proposals fail to address several of Russia’s fundamental concerns. His comments, published in the Russian magazine International Affairs, signaled a rare admission that negotiations between Washington and Moscow have reached an impasse.

“We take the American proposals very seriously, but in their current state, they cannot be accepted,” Ryabkov stated. He emphasized that while the U.S. framework appears focused on achieving a ceasefire, it does not consider what Moscow sees as the root causes of the conflict.

For Putin, these so-called “root causes” serve as justification for Russia’s insistence on certain conditions before agreeing to any peace settlement. Moscow has consistently demanded that Ukraine recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea and four occupied regions in southeastern Ukraine, withdraw its forces from those territories, and formally renounce any ambitions to join NATO. Additionally, Russia insists on Ukraine’s demilitarization terms that would, in effect, strip the country of its sovereignty.

Putin’s Demands

Beyond these territorial and military conditions, Putin has recently pushed for a change in Ukraine’s leadership. The Russian president argues that Volodymyr Zelenskyy lacks the legitimacy to negotiate a peace agreement, suggesting that Ukraine should be placed under external governance. This position further complicates any potential ceasefire negotiations.

Meanwhile, hostilities have continued despite diplomatic efforts. Although U.S.-brokered meetings in Saudi Arabia resulted in a 30-day energy ceasefire on paper, both Russian and Ukrainian forces have continued to target each other’s energy infrastructure. Additionally, the Trump administration’s attempts to mediate a ceasefire in the Black Sea were met with resistance from Moscow, which insisted on easing European sanctions as a precondition an ultimatum swiftly rejected by European Union officials.

Trump’s Growing Frustration

Donald Trump, who initially vowed to resolve the war within 24 hours of taking office, appears increasingly frustrated with both Russian and Ukrainian leaders. Over the weekend, he expressed his dissatisfaction with Putin, stating that he was “pissed off” over the Russian leader’s unwillingness to compromise on a ceasefire. This marked a significant shift in tone from Trump, who had previously spoken admiringly of Putin. However, he later softened his rhetoric, redirecting his frustrations toward Ukraine by accusing Kyiv of trying to renegotiate an economic deal with Washington.

A White House spokesperson acknowledged on Tuesday that Trump was frustrated with leaders on both sides of the conflict, further highlighting the challenges in securing a peace agreement.

Uncertain Prospects for a Ceasefire

Despite diplomatic engagements, including talks in Saudi Arabia, no significant breakthroughs have been made. Russian representative Grigory Karasin recently admitted that negotiations could stretch into the next year. Nonetheless, the Trump administration remains committed to diplomatic efforts, with Trump stating that he expects to speak with Putin again soon.

In an attempt to push for progress, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, who recently met with Trump, proposed setting an April 20 deadline for Putin to agree to a full ceasefire. However, analysts close to the Kremlin believe Russia is unlikely to accept any peace deal unless its demands are met. Among these conditions is a halt to all military and intelligence support from the U.S. and its allies to Ukraine.

Prominent Russian political analyst Fyodor Lukyanov, who advises the Kremlin, suggested that Moscow sees little urgency in ending the war under current conditions. “We are gradually winning, and the main sponsor of Ukraine, the U.S., seems to be retreating. Why should we rush?” he remarked.

With Russia holding firm on its demands and Trump’s efforts facing significant resistance, the prospects for a ceasefire remain uncertain. Moscow’s rejection of the latest U.S. proposals signals that negotiations will likely continue to be drawn out, leaving the war’s resolution in a state of uncertainty.