Russia rattles the nuclear sabre again, as Ukraine devastates its munitions

Department of Research, Studies and International News 27-09-2024

Russia has escalated its nuclear rhetoric once again as Ukraine deals a severe blow to its munitions supply. Ukrainian forces may have destroyed enough Russian ammunition to last three months in a single night using drones, while also committing to producing “several million” more.

Moscow has adapted its nuclear strategy to the threat posed by Ukraine’s long-range attacks. Over the past week, Kyiv demonstrated the devastating impact these assaults have on Russia’s conventional war efforts. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently revised his nuclear policy, according to Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia’s National Security Council. Medvedev posted on Telegram, stating that a large-scale attack or violation of Russia’s borders by enemy aerial weapons, including UAVs, could trigger a nuclear response. He further emphasized that aggression from a non-nuclear state, supported by a nuclear-armed nation, would be seen as a combined attack.

These scenarios seem specifically crafted to address Ukraine, a country that gave up its nuclear arsenal in 1994 but is supported by nuclear-armed allies like the UK, France, and the US. Western allies have also imposed restrictions preventing Ukraine from targeting deep inside Russia with Western-supplied weaponry. Putin has already warned that using these weapons would push Russia into a conflict with NATO.

Russia’s renewed nuclear threat appears aimed at reasserting the possibility of a first strike, after previous threats failed to alarm Western nations. Reports suggest that Russian officials, speaking to The Washington Post, acknowledged that repeated threats had lost their impact.

Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to demonstrate its capability. On Saturday, Ukrainian drones attacked Russian ammunition depots in Tikhoretsk, 300km southeast of free Ukrainian territory, and in Toropets, 500km north of Ukraine. Ukraine’s general staff reported that the Tikhoretsk strike destroyed 2,000 tons of ammunition, while Estonian intelligence estimated that the Toropets explosion obliterated a three-month supply of Russian munitions, amounting to 750,000 shells.

Satellite imagery revealed the extent of the destruction, with Russian civilians capturing the massive explosion at Tikhoretsk, resulting in a mushroom cloud. Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War commented that Russia’s lack of adequate protection for its supply depots highlights how Western restrictions on Ukraine’s weapons usage have allowed Russia to operate more freely in its rear areas.

Ukrainian forces have also attempted to target Russian bombers using Western-supplied Storm Shadow and ATACMS missiles to intercept Russian planes before they release devastating glide bombs. These bombs, which can carry between 250kg to 3 tons of explosives, recently caused significant damage in Zaporizhzhia, injuring 21 people and damaging multiple buildings and schools.

In response to increasing tensions, the European Parliament voted to lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western weapons, a move denounced by Russian officials, who warned of the potential for nuclear conflict. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, however, cautioned that Russia might not resort to nuclear weapons but could instead target Ukraine’s nuclear infrastructure. Zelenskyy alleged that Russia was using Chinese satellites to gather detailed information about Ukraine’s nuclear facilities.

Ukraine’s commitment to increasing its drone capabilities is clear, with Ukrainian-built drones responsible for the strikes on Russian depots. The country has also innovated precision drone attacks on armored vehicles. Despite Western restrictions, Ukraine has pledged to produce at least one million smaller drones this year, with its defense minister announcing plans to surpass that target. Russia, on the other hand, claims to have manufactured 140,000 drones in 2023, with plans for a tenfold increase in 2024.

To support Ukraine’s defense efforts, the European Union has proposed a €35 billion loan, part of a larger €45 billion pledge from the G7, to bolster Ukraine’s defense industry. While some of these funds will be allocated to protective measures like school bomb shelters, a significant portion will fuel Ukraine’s growing military production capacity, which is expected to surge by 2025.