Department of Research, Studies and International News 26-03-2025

Russia and Ukraine have reached an agreement to cease hostilities in the Black Sea, following negotiations involving U.S. representatives in Saudi Arabia. However, Moscow has made it clear that the implementation of this maritime truce is contingent on the lifting of Western sanctions on its agricultural exports.

The development marks a significant shift in the ongoing conflict, though many core issues remain unresolved, particularly regarding territorial disputes. While Ukraine has cautiously welcomed the agreement, concerns have been raised about the extent of U.S. involvement in discussions with Russia, particularly regarding potential territorial concessions.

Disputed Territorial Claims

Reports indicate that Russia has demanded full control over three Ukrainian regions, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, where it currently maintains partial occupation. Ukraine, however, continues to reject these claims, stating that it would only recognize the present lines of control as a temporary reality, rather than granting Russia any formal sovereignty over these territories.

The White House issued two separate statements following the negotiations. Both included identical key points, affirming the commitment to ensuring safe navigation and refraining from the use of force in the Black Sea. However, a crucial distinction emerged in Russia’s version of events, which claimed that the U.S. had pledged to facilitate Moscow’s reintegration into global markets for agricultural exports by easing trade restrictions, lowering insurance costs, and restoring access to international payment networks.

Trump, however, refrained from explicitly confirming any concessions, stating, “They will be looking at them, and we’re thinking about all of them right now. There are about five or six conditions. We’re looking at all of them.”

Russia’s Economic Justifications

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov defended Moscow’s stance on agricultural trade, arguing that a stable grain and fertilizer market was essential not only for Russia’s economy but also for global food security, particularly in African and developing nations.

Lavrov also criticized Zelenskyy and European leaders, suggesting that Western nations were preventing Kyiv from engaging in realistic peace talks. He dismissed Witkoff’s optimism about a broader ceasefire, attributing it to a misunderstanding of European geopolitical dynamics.

Despite the announced truce, Ukraine remains cautious. Kyiv expects Russia to halt its attacks on port facilities in Odesa and other key locations as part of the agreement. However, officials have also stated that they will independently monitor Russian naval activity and hold Moscow accountable for any violations.

The Future of the Black Sea Agreement

While both nations have agreed to the maritime ceasefire, its enforcement remains a major question. Ukraine has suggested that third-party nations, such as Turkey or Saudi Arabia, could play a role in ensuring compliance. Additionally, European countries may assist in monitoring energy and shipping activity in the region.

Adding another layer of complexity, Trump recently mentioned that discussions with the Kremlin had also included the issue of “power plant ownership.” This was widely interpreted as a reference to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which has been under Russian occupation since early in the war. The U.S. has reportedly explored options for securing control over the facility, though Zelenskyy clarified that this was not part of the latest round of negotiations.

In response, Russian state media reported that Moscow’s foreign ministry ruled out any possibility of transferring the plant to Ukraine or any other country. Russian officials dismissed speculation on the matter, further complicating future diplomatic discussions.