Rising isolation: Israel’s regional aggression risks long-term blowback

Department of Research, Studies and International News 21/07/2025

Over the past two years, Israel has expanded its military operations far beyond
Gaza and the West Bank, targeting countries such as Syria, Iran, Lebanon, and
Yemen. While Israeli officials claim these offensives are rooted in national
security concerns, the broader picture reveals a dangerous strategy driven by
aggression and impunity, one that risks intensifying regional instability and
accelerating Israel’s diplomatic isolation.
In its most recent strike on Syria, Israel escalated tensions by targeting none
other than the Syrian Ministry of Defence. The official pretext for this attack
was to “protect” the Druze minority in southern Syria. However, critics across
the region view this as another chapter in Israel’s long-standing strategy of
using security narratives to justify illegal incursions and violations of
sovereignty. Despite the announcement of a U.S.-brokered ceasefire, the
prospects for long-term calm remain uncertain.
Elsewhere, Israel’s military justifications follow a familiar pattern. In Lebanon,
the rationale was to weaken Hezbollah. In Iran, the strikes were supposedly
aimed at halting the country’s nuclear ambitions. And in Yemen, Israel acted in
response to attacks from Houthi forces. But beyond these rationales lies a
deeper question: how long can Israel maintain this pattern of cross-border
aggression without incurring serious geopolitical consequences?

Strategic aggression or regional recklessness?
Israel’s current leadership, dominated by ultranationalist figures, appears
indifferent to how it is perceived across the Arab and Islamic world. Instead, it
prioritizes power projection and military dominance, banking on its close
alignment with Washington to act with impunity.
Backed by the United States, still the world’s most powerful military actor,
Israel continues to defy international law with little accountability. The liberal
international order, once upheld by institutions like the United Nations, has
proven ineffective in curbing Israel’s actions. Repeated violations of
international norms, particularly in Gaza, have been documented by human
rights organizations and global watchdogs, yet punitive measures remain
elusive.
In Gaza alone, Israel’s devastating campaign has resulted in the deaths of more
than 58,000 Palestinians. Illegal settlements in the West Bank are expanding,
and settler violence against Palestinian civilians is on the rise. Yet, the silence of
Western capitals persists, signaling that might continues to eclipse right.

Exploiting a shifting global order
Israel’s military ventures coincide with a moment of transition in global politics.
The decline of U.S. moral leadership, particularly under President Donald
Trump’s transactional foreign policy, has opened the door for actors like Israel
to exploit the vacuum of enforcement.

The absence of real deterrents emboldens Israel. It is the only nuclear-armed
state in the Middle East, and it leverages this status to maintain regional
superiority. But this short-term supremacy carries significant long-term risks.
The so-called "Axis of Resistance," led by Iran and supported by groups in Iraq,
Syria, and Lebanon, has thus far exercised restraint, likely to avoid full-scale
war. However, Iran did retaliate directly against Israel earlier this year, with
unprecedented missile strikes reaching Tel Aviv. The confrontation lasted 12
days, but it exposed Israel’s vulnerability and signaled a new phase in regional
confrontation.

Cracks in the regional order
Lebanon offers another cautionary tale. Following Israel’s intensified
operations, Hezbollah suffered notable losses, including the death of its
symbolic leader Hassan Nasrallah and degradation of its military infrastructure.
While Israel sees this as a tactical win, the broader outcome is far from secure.
Lebanese society remains fractured, and Israel’s actions have only added to the
region’s volatility.
In Syria, the situation is more complex. After Israel’s attacks and external
pressure, President Ahmed al-Sharaa agreed to withdraw Syrian forces from
Suwayda, a Druze-majority area. However, chaos ensued, with tribal militias
mobilizing and violent clashes erupting. Eventually, Syrian troops were
redeployed to stabilize the province, showing that only strong, sovereign
governance, not foreign intervention, can guarantee lasting peace.
Saudi Arabia, once seen as a potential normalizer of ties with Israel, has
expressed firm support for Syria’s new leadership. The aftermath of Israel’s war

on Gaza has made any progress on normalization, like the Abraham Accords,
politically toxic for Riyadh and other Gulf states. The image of an emboldened,
far-right Israeli government has become synonymous with chaos and
expansionism.

Blowback on the horizon
Israel’s military ventures may yield short-term tactical victories, but they come
at the cost of long-term strategic security. The current trajectory risks
alienating regional players and eroding what little international goodwill
remains.
Iran, despite recent setbacks, is expected to recalibrate its strategy and
continue countering Israeli influence through asymmetric means, possibly
redoubling its efforts to develop advanced defense capabilities or even nuclear
deterrence.
Domestically, Israel faces signs of fatigue. Reports suggest a decline in the
willingness of reservists, who form the backbone of the Israeli military, to
respond to repeated call-ups. This reflects a broader societal disillusionment
with the endless cycle of wars and insecurity.
The growing divide within Israel, between ultranationalist forces bent on
military domination and more centrist elements wary of diplomatic isolation,
may come to define its internal political struggle. However, as long as hawkish
elements remain in control and U.S. support stays intact, Israel is likely to
continue down this perilous path.

Yet history has shown that no state can maintain regional hegemony
indefinitely by sowing division and flouting global norms. Without a shift
toward cooperation, mutual respect, and justice, especially for Palestinians,
Israel may one day face the full weight of the blowback it has long dismissed.