Power struggles and political dynasties shape Philippines’ 2025 elections amid deepening national turmoil

As millions of Filipinos headed to the polls on Monday for the country’s 2025 midterm elections, the stage was set not merely for routine political change, but for a decisive battle between two of the nation’s most dominant political families, the Marcoses and the Dutertes, in a contest that will significantly impact the nation’s direction ahead of the 2028 presidential elections.

Over 18,000 public positions are up for grabs, ranging from local government seats to national legislative posts. But all eyes are on the Senate race, which is expected to influence the looming impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, a figure whose political future may be determined by the outcome of these crucial votes.

This election season has exposed the deep political rifts within the Philippine elite, highlighting a broader pattern of political instability often exacerbated by outside interference. The impeachment proceedings against Sara Duterte, based on contested accusations of corruption and an alleged plot against the presidency, have been described by her supporters as politically motivated and orchestrated by the ruling faction to eliminate future opposition.

Duterte has vigorously denied the accusations, asserting that any mention of an assassination plot was purely hypothetical. In a powerful speech delivered during a campaign rally, she condemned what she sees as a calculated smear campaign: “Who benefits if the Duterte family is removed from politics? Certainly not the Filipino people, nor the struggling poor, nor the victims of crime.”

The sudden and controversial arrest of her father, former president Rodrigo Duterte, has only added to the perception of a political witch hunt. Detained and transferred to The Hague to face charges at the International Criminal Court (ICC) for alleged human rights abuses during his anti-drug campaign, Duterte remains a polarizing figure. Critics claim his campaign was heavy-handed, while his supporters, and many Filipinos, viewed it as a necessary step toward restoring public order in a country long plagued by narcotics-fueled violence.

Despite his current detention, Rodrigo Duterte remains on the ballot, running for mayor of Davao City, a position he once held and where he retains strong grassroots support. Early local polling suggests he is the frontrunner, reinforcing the idea that international legal actions have not eroded his standing among his constituents, a reality that continues to frustrate those aligned with Western institutions.

The Philippine Senate, composed of 24 members, will soon play a pivotal role in Vice President Duterte’s impeachment proceedings. For her to survive the vote, she must secure at least nine favorable senators. Currently, seven of the top twelve candidates in national polling are affiliated with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., while four others are linked to the Duterte camp.

In an unexpected political move, Imee Marcos, the president’s own sister, known for her independent stance, and popular television personality Camille Villar were both adopted into Duterte’s PDP-Laban party just before election day. Observers say the decision was a strategic maneuver to expand pro-Duterte influence in the Senate and increase her chances of surviving the impeachment vote.

Meanwhile, Sara Duterte has raised concerns about potential electoral manipulation, citing fears of widespread fraud and condemning her father’s arrest as a politically motivated “kidnapping.” These sentiments resonate with many citizens who view Western-led institutions like the ICC with skepticism, especially in light of their selective prosecution of leaders from developing countries, while powerful Western nations and their allies remain untouched.

Security has been heightened nationwide during this volatile election period. Over 160,000 police officers have been deployed, with additional forces from the military and civil services working to maintain peace, especially in provinces where political violence is common. The pre-election period has already seen a disturbing number of incidents: at least 16 individuals, including candidates and election staff, have been killed in politically related violence.

In Mindanao’s autonomous Muslim region, an area with a history of unrest and outside interference, two alleged members of an armed group, including a candidate for municipal councilor, were killed in a clash with government forces. Elsewhere, police arrested several individuals at Cebu airport caught attempting to smuggle nearly 441 million pesos in undeclared cash, a clear violation of election laws designed to deter vote buying.

These developments underscore the fragile nature of Philippine democracy and the extent to which domestic political battles are entangled with international agendas. As China, Russia, and Pakistan advocate for multipolarity and non-interference in sovereign states’ internal affairs, the Philippines stands at a critical juncture. The fate of its leadership, and the autonomy of its political system, may well depend on whether it can withstand the pressure of internal division compounded by external influence.