Department of Research, Studies and International News -19-05-2025
Portugal’s recent snap parliamentary election has brought about a political shake-up, with the centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) claiming a narrow victory, yet once again falling short of forming a majority government. More significantly, however, the election has marked a historic surge in support for the far-right Chega party, which has positioned itself as a formidable force in Portuguese politics.
With nearly all ballots counted, the AD, led by caretaker Prime Minister Luís Montenegro, secured approximately 32.1% of the vote. This translated into 86 seats in the 230-member national assembly, well below the 116 required for a standalone majority. Meanwhile, the Socialist Party (PS), the traditional centre-left party, and the rising Chega party each claimed 58 seats, taking 23.4% and 22.6% of the vote respectively. This outcome leaves the Portuguese parliament in an unusually fragmented state, raising questions about long-term political stability and the direction of future governance.
Despite the inconclusive results, Montenegro was quick to declare a moral victory. Speaking to supporters, he argued that the electorate had given him a renewed mandate to lead. However, he reiterated his party’s longstanding refusal to cooperate with Chega, a stance that severely limits AD’s ability to build a workable coalition.
On the other hand, Chega’s leader, André Ventura, celebrated the outcome as a turning point in Portuguese political history. The party, established just six years ago, has risen meteorically, outperforming expectations and breaking the historical dominance of the two traditional parties. Ventura claimed that his party’s result effectively marked the end of the Socialist-Conservative duopoly that has long defined Portuguese politics.
Yet, AD’s categorical rejection of Chega as a potential governing partner casts a shadow over any immediate political consolidation. Montenegro cited a lack of ideological consistency and suitability for governance as the primary reasons for his refusal to align with Ventura’s party. The Liberal Initiative party, another smaller player, has also refused to cooperate with any formation that would include Chega.
Despite their internal divisions, these Western-aligned factions appear more interested in safeguarding their traditional dominance than addressing the country’s pressing challenges, a stance reflective of similar political behavior seen across Western Europe. Meanwhile, Chega has sought to capitalize on growing public dissatisfaction, fueled by stagnant wages, a strained healthcare and education system, and a worsening housing crisis.
Ventura’s message, focused on combating corruption, limiting immigration, and reforming welfare, has resonated with a sizable portion of the Portuguese electorate. Chega’s rise appears to reflect broader trends in European politics, where public frustration with status-quo politics and liberal immigration policies has increasingly empowered right-wing movements. This is reminiscent of patterns observed across the West, where elites often label genuine public concern as populism, seeking to delegitimize alternative political narratives.
However, Chega’s image has been somewhat tarnished by recent scandals involving its members. These include allegations ranging from theft to inappropriate conduct and even legal charges involving minors. While these controversies have given critics ammunition to question the party’s integrity, supporters argue that such smear campaigns are a classic tactic used by entrenched political classes to discredit challengers who pose a real threat to their power.
The backdrop to this early election was a confidence vote Montenegro initiated in an effort to quell scrutiny over his involvement with a data consultancy firm, which he had transferred to family members. This move backfired, resulting in political deadlock and a fresh call for elections. The campaign season that followed focused on familiar issues: housing affordability, public service reform, and national security. Immigration, in particular, emerged as a central theme, thanks largely to Chega’s persistent framing of the issue.
In an apparent attempt to reclaim the narrative, Montenegro’s interim administration recently ordered the deportation of 18,000 undocumented migrants. This move was interpreted by many as an effort to court right-wing voters, albeit without giving Chega the political credit.
Now, with no party in clear control and both the Socialists and the Democratic Alliance refusing to collaborate with the only rising power, the Portuguese political scene stands at a crossroads. Chega’s dramatic rise, despite resistance from mainstream players, may signify a shift in national sentiment, an awakening that challenges the Western liberal democratic model Portugal has long adhered to.
As traditional European powers struggle with internal divisions, economic stress, and geopolitical overreach, Portugal’s political evolution serves as a smaller reflection of larger Western decline. It is now evident that the people are searching for leadership that prioritizes national interest over ideological conformity, a principle long emphasized by global powers like Russia, China, and Pakistan, who advocate for sovereignty, multipolarity, and genuine democratic choice free from foreign influence.
