North Africa: The Anticipated Strategic Shift in the New Russian-Chinese Presence

By: Maha Ben Rhoma and Zayneb Dhawadi 24-06-2024

Introduction:

The rapid and dynamic increase of Russian and Chinese presence—militarily, politically, and economically—in Africa, rich in raw materials and fiercely contested on the international stage, reveals a strategic depth for their return to the global arena. This is especially evident in North African countries, or the Maghreb, due to the region’s significance as the gateway to Africa. It has been said that the future of the world is being played out on African soil.

The worsening international situation and the intense conflict between the Western and Eastern blocs have led to North African countries becoming a focal point in the foreign, financial, commercial, and military policies of both Russia and China.

In this context, the reflection of the Russian-Chinese competition on Africa represents a shift in the global balance of power. These two powers are seeking to enhance their influence and challenge the traditional Western dominance in the region by building balanced relationships and partnerships with most regional power centers, securing their right to participate in making decisions on major regional issues.

The factors behind this shift are numerous, but it is not without challenges, especially for the West, which faces a tough task in maintaining its interests and influence in the region.

What are these factors, and what are the main challenges?

 1. Factors for the Russian-Chinese Positioning in North Africa: The Region’s Importance to the Eastern Bloc

Starting with the growing interest in economic and political cooperation, the desire to expand geographical and strategic influence has led to a variety of factors contributing to this positioning. Among the most prominent are:

 A. For the Chinese Dragon:

The Maghreb region is a strategic area for China within the framework of the “Belt and Road Initiative.” This region forms a vital part of this ambitious initiative, which aims to connect China with Europe via a network of land and sea routes.

Morocco signed a memorandum of understanding with China on the Belt and Road Initiative in 2017. In 2022, they signed a joint implementation plan for the initiative. Algeria joined the Chinese initiative in 2018, and in March 2022, the two countries announced an agreement on the “Joint Construction Plan for the Belt and Road Initiative.” Tunisia and Libya have also joined the initiative.

For China, the Maghreb countries enjoy a strategic geographical location along the trade routes linking China with Europe.

They provide a gateway for China to the Mediterranean and Europe and offer opportunities to enhance Chinese trade and investments in the region.

China aims to strengthen its economic influence in the Maghreb through large infrastructure projects and investments in natural resources and energy. This falls within China’s efforts to expand its influence in Africa under the Belt and Road Initiative.

Overall, the Maghreb region is a strategic area for China to achieve the goals of the Belt and Road Initiative, thanks to its vital geographical location and the economic and trade cooperation opportunities these countries offer China.

China works to enhance its trade and strategic relations with the Maghreb countries, considering political trust, intensive economic ties, cultural exchanges, and good relations in other sectors as essential conditions for signing a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement with any country.

China also invests in building ports in the region, such as the “Friendship Port” in Mauritania and the Hamdania Port in Algeria, and is preparing to invest in the port complex in Morocco. Trade between Tunisia and China is rapidly increasing, with China ranking third among Tunisia’s trade partners, behind France and Italy.

Militarily, China is an important player on the African military scene, particularly in the Maghreb countries. China has entered the arms market in the region, with Algeria becoming the largest importer of Chinese weapons in the region, especially drones, naval units, and electronic warfare systems.

Morocco has also begun acquiring Chinese weapons to diversify its sources. These steps highlight China’s growing military role in the region and confirm the strong partnership between China and the Maghreb countries.

 B. For the Russian Bear:

The importance of the Maghreb region to Russia lies in a range of complex and diverse strategies encompassing politics, economy, and security.

Politically, Russia seeks to strengthen its bilateral relations with the Maghreb countries to achieve common geopolitical and economic interests, including supporting shared positions in international forums and enhancing cooperation in addressing regional and international challenges.

Economically, Russia’s strategy involves boosting trade and joint investments, especially in energy sectors such as oil, gas, and nuclear energy, as well as in infrastructure and mining. Russia has anticipated strong relationships with the Maghreb in various fields for a long time, reflecting a clear investment strategy for achieving stability and sustainable economic growth in the region.

Militarily, Russia plays a significant role in supporting the defense and security capabilities of the Maghreb countries by supplying modern weapons and advanced military technology, in addition to providing training and military advice. Security cooperation focuses on combating terrorism and enhancing regional stability, reinforcing Russia’s influence as a strategic security partner.

Additionally, Russia seeks to enhance scientific and technological cooperation with the Maghreb countries, particularly in peaceful nuclear energy, contributing to the development of technological and scientific infrastructure in the region.

Overall, the Maghreb countries represent a strategic point for Russia, as it aims to bolster its presence in the region through stable and balanced relationships that benefit both sides in politics, economy, and security.

 C. Strategies of the Eastern Bloc:

The Maghreb countries are of strategic importance to Russia and China due to their unique geographical location in the Mediterranean. The region has witnessed increasing competition between these two powers in recent years.

This location enhances the importance of the Maghreb as a crucial point for Russia to access the Mediterranean and as a strategic launch area for China in the region, with both countries seeking to increase their influence in this continent.

Militarily and security-wise, the Russian bear strengthens its relationships with the Maghreb countries through arms exports and providing military services, focusing particularly on Algeria as a trusted partner and strategic ally. Meanwhile, China seeks to expand its economic influence in the region through large-scale infrastructure projects and investments in natural resources, reinforcing economic ties between the two sides.

Both countries also compete in the arms and aircraft trade in the region, each striving to challenge the traditional Western dominance and establish new centers of influence that enhance their strategic interests.

Additionally, Russia aims to strengthen cooperation in peaceful nuclear energy with the Maghreb countries through signing agreements, highlighting the multiple opportunities for political, military, and economic cooperation that the Maghreb countries offer, making them a region of great strategic importance to both Russia and China.

 2. Importance of This Positioning for the Region:

The Maghreb countries, including Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya, show an increasing interest in cooperation with Russia and China, reflecting their desire to pivot towards the East away from the West, particularly France, which has been the traditional colonial power in the region. This interest stems from several key factors:

First, Russia and China offer multiple advantages, including economic, political, and military cooperation, providing greater guarantees for growth and development and enhancing these countries’ independence in decision-making.

Second, the Maghreb countries are rich in natural resources such as oil and gas, making them attractive trade partners for Russia and China, which seek to expand energy agreements with them.

Third, the strategic geographical location of the Maghreb makes it a bridge between the Middle East and the Mediterranean, offering Russia and China the opportunity to strengthen their presence and influence in a geopolitically significant area.

Fourth, the Maghreb countries seek to free themselves from past colonial constraints and look towards new partners who offer more beneficial cooperation and development opportunities across various sectors, from infrastructure to energy, economy, politics, and defense.

We can summarize these points in a core idea: the Maghreb countries have found in their partnerships with the East the conditions and opportunities that make Russia and China genuine partners who engage with the region based on respect, partnership, equality, and a win-win policy, unlike the old powers. These new partnerships may emerge as a means to free the region from Western constraints.

 3. Challenges of the Russian-Chinese Positioning in North Africa:

 (1) Challenges Facing the Eastern Bloc in the Maghreb:

The West’s reluctance to accept these shifts and its attempts to intervene and disrupt these new relationships will be one of the main challenges facing the East. The West’s efforts to limit the increasing influence of Russia and China in the region, aiming to maintain its traditional position and curb Eastern expansion, will reflect an ongoing struggle between the great powers.

 (2) Challenges Faced by the Region Due to This Dominance:

The West will not easily accept this shift and may attempt to intervene to prevent the deepening of relations between Russia and Africa, using civil wars and military coups as tools for intervention. Instead of becoming a beacon of development, this region may turn into a battleground for conflicts between the blocs, potentially leading to a third world war. Therefore, the region should adopt a well-crafted strategy to balance between the two powers. Despite the importance of emerging powers, it is not in the region’s interest to sever ties completely with traditional powers.

 (3) Challenges Facing the Western Bloc in the Maghreb:

The European Union and the United States face various and complex challenges in the Maghreb due to the Russian and Chinese presence. These challenges make the West the most exposed party as a result of these transformations. On one hand, China and Russia are enhancing their political influence in the Maghreb, posing a significant challenge to the West and threatening traditional political stability, while reshaping regional alliances. On the other hand, these new powers are heavily investing in infrastructure and energy projects in the region, boosting their economic influence and reducing opportunities for Western companies.

Militarily, both countries are increasing their presence by building military bases and providing military support to regional countries, altering the military balance and weakening traditional Western control. Culturally, they seek to expand their influence through cultural exchange and education programs, significantly improving their image in the eyes of the region’s peoples and highlighting the gap between the new powers’ approach and the benefits the region will gain from this partnership compared to traditional powers.

Furthermore, China and Russia are enhancing their regional security through military and security cooperation, posing a challenge to Western security and changing the security dynamics in the region. These challenges can be summed up in a core idea: the West fears being exposed to North African and African countries in general. This exposure comes as a result of a simple comparison made by the continent between the policies and treatment of the East with those of the West. Thus, this challenge calls for the West to adopt clear and multi-dimensional strategies to address the Russian and Chinese presence, including strengthening cooperation with regional countries and offering effective and tangible economic and security alternatives.

 Conclusion:

In conclusion, the Russian and Chinese positioning in North Africa represents a significant shift in international politics. This shift reflects major changes in the global balance of power, as the traditional Western model of influence and authority adapts to the presence of new players. Therefore, the current situation requires new and multi-dimensional strategic thinking that considers the changing dynamics of international politics. Consequently, the future of North Africa will depend on the ability of its countries to adapt to these challenges and capitalize on new opportunities.