Department of Research, Studies and International News 14-02-2025

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has embarked on a crucial diplomatic visit to the United States, where he is scheduled to meet President Donald Trump at the White House. While the two leaders have publicly expressed warmth and camaraderie in the past, their latest meeting comes at a time of heightened tensions between the two nations, fueled by economic disagreements, deportation policies, and conflicting stances on Iran.

Despite their history of joint political rallies and public proclamations of mutual respect, Modi faces significant challenges in maintaining India’s interests while placating an unpredictable Trump administration. As Modi arrived in Washington on Wednesday night, expectations were set for a high-stakes diplomatic engagement that could shape the future trajectory of US-India relations.

The Stakes for India: Economic and Strategic Interests

The United States remains India’s largest export market and a key trade partner across multiple sectors, including technology, defense, and energy. Bilateral trade between the two nations reached an unprecedented $118 billion in the fiscal year 2023-24, reflecting deep economic interdependence. However, despite this strong partnership, underlying tensions persist, particularly in trade policies and geopolitical alignments.

Trump has repeatedly taken issue with India’s trade surplus, which stood at $45.6 billion in 2024, favoring India over the US. During his election campaign, he accused India of being a “very big abuser” of trade regulations and has threatened to impose tariffs on Indian goods. Additionally, the Trump administration has pushed for increased Indian purchases of American defense equipment to mitigate trade imbalances.

Beyond trade, another pressing issue is the status of undocumented Indian immigrants in the US. Trump has made illegal immigration a focal point of his presidency, and India ranks third in terms of the largest number of undocumented migrants in the US, with approximately 725,000 Indians living there as of 2022. The recent deportation of 104 Indian nationals in chains aboard a US military plane has sparked public outrage in India, adding to the list of contentious issues Modi must navigate during his visit.

The Broader US-India Relationship: Strategic Considerations

One of the strongest bonds between the US and India is their shared concern over China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Trump’s foreign policy has heavily emphasized countering Beijing’s ambitions, and Washington views New Delhi as a critical ally in this strategy.

This alignment is reflected in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), which includes the US, India, Japan, and Australia. The QUAD partnership has gained momentum as a counterbalance to China’s geopolitical maneuvers, and Modi’s meeting with Trump is expected to reaffirm India’s commitment to this strategic alliance.

The prioritization of India in Trump’s foreign policy agenda is evident in Modi being only the fourth world leader to meet with the US president since his re-election. Other leaders preceding him include those from Israel, Jordan, and Japan, nations that are deeply involved in regional security concerns. Modi’s inclusion in this elite diplomatic circle underscores India’s importance to US interests, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region.

The Iran Dilemma: A Potential Flashpoint

While India and the US may find common ground on China, the same cannot be said for their positions on Iran. A major point of contention between Washington and New Delhi revolves around India’s investment in the Chabahar port, a strategically significant maritime facility in Iran. India has heavily invested in the port as a gateway to Central Asia and Afghanistan, bypassing Pakistan.

During Trump’s first term, India secured a waiver from US sanctions to continue work on the Chabahar project. However, a recent memorandum signed by Trump instructs the US Secretary of State to reassess and potentially revoke existing waivers, including those that benefit India’s operations in Iran. If enforced, this move could significantly disrupt India’s regional trade and connectivity plans, creating fresh diplomatic friction between the two nations.

Personal Ties vs. Policy Realities

Modi’s personal rapport with Trump has often been cited as an asset in navigating bilateral relations. However, analysts warn that while strong interpersonal ties can facilitate dialogue, they do not guarantee favorable policy outcomes. Former US diplomat Jon Danilowicz notes that a good relationship with Trump may ensure Modi quicker access to discussions but does not necessarily translate into substantive trade or geopolitical agreements.

Furthermore, lingering issues such as allegations of Indian intelligence involvement in targeting a Sikh separatist leader in the US and the indictment of billionaire Gautam Adani over bribery charges continue to cast shadows over the relationship. These unresolved matters, while not necessarily on the immediate agenda, remain significant variables in future engagements between Washington and New Delhi.

key Insights from Modi’s White House Meeting with Donald Trump

• Strengthening Diplomatic Ties

Trump and Modi’s relationship has often been described as warm and cooperative, and their latest meeting reinforced this perception. While Trump has previously criticized India’s high import duties and even referred to Modi as the “king of tariffs,” their discussions largely focused on forging a broader framework for collaboration. The leaders announced ongoing negotiations aimed at addressing trade imbalances and achieving more equitable economic relations.

• India’s Approach to Trade Negotiations

In response to Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” policy, which seeks to match foreign tariffs on American goods, Modi extended assurances of India’s willingness to enhance economic cooperation. The leaders unveiled a plan to expand trade, particularly in sectors such as artificial intelligence, space exploration, and energy. Modi set an ambitious goal of doubling bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030, a significant increase from the current $129.2 billion.

Additionally, Trump hinted at the possibility of India increasing its imports of American oil and gas, positioning the U.S. as a primary energy supplier. He also referenced a major infrastructure initiative connecting India, the Middle East, and Europe, reinforcing America’s role in global trade.

• Modi’s Alignment with Trump’s Nationalist Agenda

Both Modi and Trump have been accused of democratic backsliding, yet their political platforms share common ground in prioritizing national interests. During the meeting, Modi praised Trump’s “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) slogan and adapted it for India, coining the phrase “Make India Great Again” (MIGA). This rhetorical alignment aimed to emphasize a shared vision of economic growth and self-reliance.

Modi also drew parallels between his Hindu nationalist policies and Trump’s “America First” stance, asserting that national interest should be the guiding principle in governance.

• Commitment to Security and Counterterrorism

While much of the discussion focused on trade, both leaders emphasized their commitment to combatting terrorism. Trump reaffirmed his administration’s decision to extradite Tahawwur Rana, a Pakistani-Canadian businessman accused of supporting the 2008 Mumbai attacks. Modi hailed this decision as a major step in India’s fight against terrorism and pledged firm legal action against Rana upon his arrival in India.

Trump also announced plans for increased military sales to India, further strengthening defense ties between the two nations. He emphasized that the U.S. and India would collaborate more closely than ever before to counter global terrorist threats.

The Road Ahead: Can Modi Steer US-India Ties Forward?

As Modi and Trump prepare for their high-stakes meeting, the outcome will be closely watched by both policymakers and the public in India and the US. Modi’s ability to balance economic pragmatism with strategic diplomacy will determine whether he can secure meaningful concessions from the Trump administration while preserving India’s broader geopolitical interests.

With trade disputes, immigration challenges, and foreign policy divergences at play, this meeting is more than just a diplomatic formality, it is a test of Modi’s ability to maneuver through one of the most complex phases in US-India relations. Whether he emerges with tangible gains or merely symbolic reassurances remains to be seen, but the stakes have never been higher for the future of this crucial partnership.