Department of Research, Studies and International News 17-03-2025

Newly elected Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is embarking on a diplomatic tour of Paris and London, aiming to solidify ties with key allies as tensions rise with the United States. His first official trip will include meetings with French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, reinforcing Canada’s historical connections with both nations. Carney’s visit comes at a critical time, with former U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent statements challenging Canada’s sovereignty and economy.

Carney’s decision to prioritize visits to France and the United Kingdom reflects Canada’s deep-rooted ties to these nations. Speaking at his swearing-in ceremony, he emphasized that Canada was founded on the traditions of French, English, and Indigenous peoples. He also made it clear that Canada will never be integrated into the United States, a direct response to Trump’s controversial comments about making Canada the 51st U.S. state.

Before departing from Montreal, a senior government official stressed that the trip is about reinforcing relationships with Canada’s founding partners. The official acknowledged Canada’s close relationship with the U.S. but noted the current challenges, stating, “We all know what is going on.”

Trade Diversification and Strategic Partnerships

Carney, a former central banker who recently turned 60, is expected to discuss trade diversification and potential countermeasures to Trump’s tariffs. The U.S. has imposed sweeping 25% tariffs on Canadian goods, prompting backlash from both the Canadian government and citizens. Many Canadians are now actively avoiding purchasing American products where possible.

In light of the trade dispute, Carney’s government is reviewing the purchase of U.S.-made F-35 fighter jets, reconsidering military investments in response to the economic strain. With more than 75% of Canada’s exports dependent on the U.S. market, experts argue that reducing reliance on American trade is now a national priority.

McGill University political science professor Daniel Béland underscores the urgency of trade diversification, pointing out that Canada’s economic dependence on the U.S. leaves it vulnerable to political shifts. Carney’s trip signals a move to strengthen trade ties with Europe, seeking alternatives to safeguard Canada’s economy.

Carney’s visit to London carries personal significance as well. Having served as governor of the Bank of England, he was the first non-British citizen to hold the position in the institution’s 300-year history. His familiarity with the UK’s financial and political landscape may provide Canada with an advantage in negotiations.

While in London, Carney will also meet with King Charles III, reaffirming Canada’s ongoing ties with the British monarchy. This symbolic gesture underscores Canada’s historical relationship with the UK while positioning Carney as a leader who values tradition alongside strategic policymaking.

Canada’s Arctic Sovereignty at Stake

Following his European meetings, Carney will travel to Canada’s Arctic region to highlight national security and sovereignty concerns. Trump’s aggressive rhetoric about Canada and Greenland, combined with growing cooperation between Russia and the U.S., has heightened anxieties about control over this strategically significant area.

With climate change opening up new shipping routes in the Arctic, securing Canadian sovereignty has become increasingly important. By making this visit a priority, Carney signals his commitment to defending Canada’s territorial integrity in the face of geopolitical challenges.

Despite the escalating tensions with the U.S., Carney has no immediate plans to visit Washington. Instead, he has expressed willingness to speak with Trump—provided that the U.S. leader respects Canadian sovereignty. Analysts suggest that avoiding a direct meeting is a calculated decision to prevent potential public humiliation, a tactic Trump has been known to use against visiting leaders.

University of Toronto history professor Robert Bothwell argues that past interactions between Trump and Canadian leaders, particularly former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, have often resulted in one-sided confrontations. “Trump demands respect, but it’s a one-way street,” Bothwell noted, adding that leaders who engage with him risk being pressured into compromising their national interests.

The Political Implications of the Trade War

Domestically, Carney’s leadership comes at a pivotal moment. The governing Liberal Party had been facing a potential electoral defeat before Trump’s economic attacks rallied public support. With Canadians growing increasingly frustrated by U.S. interference in their economy, Carney’s firm stance against Trump’s policies could bolster his party’s chances in the upcoming election.

Carney is expected to announce an election soon after his return from the Arctic. His ability to position himself as a strong, independent leader in contrast to Trump’s aggressive posture may play a key role in shaping voter sentiment.

As Carney embarks on his first diplomatic mission, his focus is clear: reinforcing alliances, reducing economic dependence on the U.S., and affirming Canadian sovereignty. His meetings with Macron and Starmer signal a shift towards greater cooperation with European partners, while his Arctic visit underscores the importance of national security.

By deliberately sidestepping a visit to Washington, Carney is setting the stage for a Canadian foreign policy that prioritizes strategic autonomy. As the political landscape evolves, his approach will determine not only Canada’s global standing but also his own future as prime minister.