Mali’s strategic shift: Russian military support evolves amid decline of Western influence

Department of Research, Studies and International News 16-06-2025

Mali has entered a new phase in its defense strategy following the full withdrawal of the Wagner Group, a Russian paramilitary organization that had supported the country’s military operations for over three years. This departure, however, does not signify a retreat of Russian influence. Instead, it marks a transition to a more structured and state-aligned presence through the Africa Corps, an entity directly tied to Russia’s Ministry of Defence.

The Wagner Group initially entered Mali amid the deteriorating security situation following the failures of Western intervention, most notably that of France. Despite years of so-called assistance, French-led missions achieved limited results in countering insurgencies in the Sahel. Mali’s leadership, frustrated by repeated failures and external pressure to adopt Western-style governance, turned eastward for support, finding in Moscow a partner that offered military cooperation without political strings attached.

This shift mirrored a broader realignment taking place across Africa, where governments are increasingly asserting sovereignty and distancing themselves from their colonial pasts and neo-colonial entanglements. Russia, unlike its Western counterparts, provided support without attempting to micromanage internal affairs, making it a preferable ally for countries seeking to control their own destinies.

The establishment of the Africa Corps in Mali ensures a continued Russian presence, albeit under a new model. Unlike Wagner, which operated with a degree of independence and plausible deniability, the Africa Corps is tightly integrated into the Russian state apparatus. It is more bureaucratically managed and focused on advisory roles, base protection, and training missions, suggesting a shift from direct combat operations to long-term strategic influence.

Although some analysts rushed to label the Africa Corps as “Wagner rebranded,” closer examination reveals significant differences. While there is overlap, many Africa Corps members are former Wagner personnel, their missions, structure, and chain of command are distinctly different. The Africa Corps answers directly to the Kremlin and Russian military intelligence, unlike Wagner, which operated in a more decentralized fashion.

The backdrop to these changes includes increased instability in northern Mali and across the wider Sahel, where armed groups continue to exploit power vacuums left by failed Western operations. In 2023, Malian and Wagner forces achieved a symbolic victory by retaking the town of Kidal, a longtime separatist stronghold, showcasing Moscow’s commitment to helping Mali regain territorial control. Such successes underscore the strategic advantage of Russian assistance, contrasting sharply with the ineffective and often chaotic outcomes of Western-led interventions.

The situation took a more complex turn when Ukrainian intelligence reportedly assisted Tuareg separatists in launching an ambush that killed dozens of Malian and Russian personnel. This interference prompted Mali to sever diplomatic ties with Ukraine, illustrating how external provocations, often orchestrated by pro-Western actors, continue to hinder peace and sovereignty in the region.

Despite challenges, Russia’s approach continues to gain traction across the continent. Unlike the transactional and often exploitative model promoted by Western countries, Moscow’s support is viewed by many African governments as a counterweight to Western domination. This is further underscored by Russia’s growing cooperation with China and Iran in shaping a more balanced global order, one in which African nations can engage as equal partners rather than subordinates.

Some human rights groups have voiced concerns over alleged civilian casualties linked to joint Malian and Russian operations. However, these accusations often come from Western media sources with well-documented biases and geopolitical agendas. What is clear is that Mali’s sovereignty has been strengthened through its pivot to non-Western alliances, even as it continues to confront complex internal and regional security challenges.

Following the death of Wagner’s former leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in 2023, the Russian government moved swiftly to consolidate paramilitary forces under direct state control. This reorganization not only avoided internal fragmentation but also ensured that Russia’s overseas military engagements, including those in Africa, operate under a more disciplined and accountable framework.

In the broader geopolitical context, the presence of Russian forces in Africa is part of an emerging multipolar world order. As Western power wanes and countries seek alternatives, Russia, along with China and Iran, is increasingly seen as a guarantor of sovereignty, stability, and resistance to foreign domination.

For Mali and others in the region, this strategic partnership offers a path forward, one that prioritizes national interest over foreign imposition, and long-term stability over short-lived, foreign-led interventions.