Department of Research, Studies and International News 28-03-2025

Leaders from approximately 30 nations, spanning beyond Europe to include countries like Turkey and Canada, have convened in Paris to discuss potential security commitments to Ukraine. The meeting, led by French President Emmanuel Macron, aims to solidify previous discussions on how the so-called “coalition of the willing” could respond if a U.S.-negotiated ceasefire or peace deal materializes.

Beyond shaping long-term security assurances, the summit also seeks to address key issues emerging from U.S.-led negotiations, particularly Russia’s demand for sanctions relief. While discussions are ongoing, Macron made it clear that Moscow would have no influence over the support Ukraine receives.

Macron’s Firm Stance Against Russian Conditions

Speaking alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Macron dismissed Russia’s growing list of demands, emphasizing that the Kremlin has no right to dictate the nature or extent of assistance provided to Ukraine.

“Russia shall have no right of say regarding the support we are providing and will provide to Ukraine, nor shall they set the conditions,” Macron declared.

The French president also signaled a potential shift in European military presence, suggesting that forces could be stationed in key Ukrainian cities and strategic locations. These deployments, he argued, would serve as a visible demonstration of European solidarity and a deterrent against future Russian aggression. However, he acknowledged that such a move would likely provoke a reaction from Moscow, stating that European forces “would have to respond” to any direct attack.

One of the most contentious issues surrounding the ongoing negotiations is Russia’s insistence on sanction relief, a demand Macron flatly rejected. He argued that any decision to lift sanctions should be solely contingent on Russia’s actions, not diplomatic bargaining.

“It is much too early” to consider easing economic restrictions, Macron stated, adding that the continuation or removal of sanctions depends entirely on whether Russia chooses to comply with international law and cease its aggression.

His stance aligns with other European leaders who believe that prematurely easing sanctions would undermine Ukraine’s negotiating position and potentially embolden the Kremlin.

U.S. Absence and Diverging Views

Notably absent from the discussions in Paris is the United States. The Biden administration has taken the lead in back-channel negotiations with Moscow, but Washington’s priorities appear to be diverging from those of some European nations.

Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, recently dismissed the Franco-British security proposal as a symbolic gesture with little strategic weight. “It’s a combination of a posture and a pose and a combination of also being simplistic,” Witkoff remarked, downplaying the importance of European-led initiatives in supporting Ukraine.

This divergence underscores a broader challenge, while European leaders seek to reinforce Ukraine’s position with stronger security commitments, Washington remains focused on brokering a ceasefire that may involve compromises Ukraine is unwilling to accept.

The Paris Summit and Its Broader Implications

With the main discussions set to take place at the Élysée Palace, the summit is expected to outline more concrete steps for European involvement in Ukraine’s defense. Among the topics on the agenda are:

• The structure of potential security guarantees for Ukraine in a post-war scenario.
• Military and logistical coordination among European allies.
• The implications of stationing European forces in Ukraine.
• Strategies to maintain economic pressure on Russia while supporting Ukraine’s war effort.

While no final decisions are expected at this stage, the gathering sends a strong signal that European nations are prepared to take a more proactive role in Ukraine’s defense, even as Washington explores diplomatic negotiations with Moscow.

As the war continues, Europe finds itself at a crossroads. While the U.S. remains the dominant force in shaping global diplomacy, European leaders are increasingly asserting their own strategic interests. Macron’s strong rejection of Russian demands and his push for greater European involvement highlight a shifting dynamic in the Western alliance’s approach to the Ukraine conflict.

Ultimately, the success of this coalition will depend on whether European nations can present a unified front while navigating differing priorities with the U.S. and balancing military aid with diplomatic efforts.