Department of Research, Studies and International News 13-01-2025

Joseph Aoun, a seasoned military leader and former commander of the Lebanese Army, has been elected as the 14th president of Lebanon. His appointment marks the end of a prolonged two-year presidential vacuum that followed the departure of his predecessor, Michel Aoun. Despite sharing a surname, the two are not related.

This pivotal election resolved a significant deadlock in Lebanon’s parliament, which had convened 12 times without success to elect a president. Aoun eventually secured 99 votes out of the 128-member parliament in the second round of voting, receiving support from a broad spectrum of political figures.

A Career Rooted in Military Service

Born in 1964 in Sin el-Fil, a suburb of Beirut, Joseph Aoun’s career trajectory has been closely tied to his military service. As a Maronite Christian, he aligns with the constitutional requirement that the Lebanese presidency and certain other positions are held by members of this religious sect.

Aoun began his military journey in 1983 during the Lebanese Civil War by enrolling in the military academy. His career saw a steady rise through the ranks, bolstered by extensive training in Lebanon and abroad, including specialized counterterrorism programs in the United States. His efforts were recognized with multiple honors, including Lebanon’s prestigious Medal of War, awarded to him three times.

In 2017, Aoun was appointed commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). Shortly after assuming this role, he led a successful counterterrorism operation targeting ISIL (ISIS) fighters entrenched in the rugged terrain between Syria and Lebanon. This operation, which focused on the outskirts of the Christian villages Ras Baalbek and Qaa, enhanced his reputation and elevated his stature as a capable leader.

Throughout his tenure, Aoun cultivated relationships with key international and regional actors, including the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. These alliances proved instrumental in building support for his presidential candidacy.

Navigating Crisis and Challenges

Aoun’s time as commander coincided with one of Lebanon’s most challenging periods. A prolonged economic crisis plunged millions of Lebanese citizens into financial hardship, including members of the armed forces, many of whom had to take secondary jobs to make ends meet. This economic instability underscored a larger governance crisis, exacerbated by corruption and inefficiency within Lebanon’s political system.

The catastrophic Beirut port explosion in August 2020, which claimed more than 220 lives and caused widespread devastation, further eroded public trust in the government. The country’s inability to elect a president after Michel Aoun’s term ended in October 2022 left the state paralyzed during a time when decisive action was urgently needed.

During this period, the LAF, under Aoun’s command, was often seen as weaker compared to Hezbollah, the powerful Shia political and military group. This imbalance highlighted the difficulties of asserting state authority and sovereignty in Lebanon.

Adding to Lebanon’s woes was the impact of the recent conflict between Israel and Gaza. On October 8, 2023, Hezbollah’s exchange of fire with Israel escalated into a two-month-long conflict. The war resulted in devastating losses, with more than 4,000 people killed, including over 40 Lebanese troops. The violence only ceased with a fragile ceasefire agreement on November 27, 2023.

A Path Forward Amid Uncertainty

The resolution of the Israel-Gaza conflict created an opening for political progress in Lebanon. Amid international and domestic pressure to stabilize the nation, Aoun emerged as a consensus candidate. His ability to keep the Lebanese army neutral during the conflict bolstered his reputation, particularly as he facilitated Lebanon’s adherence to the ceasefire conditions. This agreement required Hezbollah to retreat south of the Litani River, with the LAF assuming responsibility for the area to ensure Israeli withdrawal to the UN-defined borders.

Aoun’s election was met with cautious optimism internationally, with Israel notably welcoming his presidency. However, Aoun’s political stance remains enigmatic. He rarely engaged with the media, leaving much of his ideology and future plans open to speculation. One notable instance of public critique occurred in 2021 when he openly condemned Lebanon’s political leadership for its role in the financial crisis, highlighting the dire conditions faced by soldiers.

In his inaugural address, Aoun emphasized the importance of national unity and pledged to rebuild areas ravaged by Israeli strikes, including southern Lebanon and Beirut’s Dahiyeh suburb. He also affirmed the state’s exclusive right to bear arms, a statement likely to face resistance from Hezbollah.

Joseph Aoun’s presidency marks a rare moment of agreement in Lebanon’s fractured political landscape. However, his ability to transform the lives of Lebanese citizens remains uncertain. Decades of entrenched corruption, political stagnation, and economic mismanagement have left the country in a precarious state.

The new president faces the monumental task of restoring public trust and leading Lebanon toward recovery. His success will depend on his ability to navigate the complex interplay of domestic and international politics, unify a deeply divided nation, and address the dire needs of a population yearning for effective leadership and stability.