Japan’s Prime Minister cancels overseas trip following experts’ ‘megaquake’ warning

Department of Research, Strategic Studies and International Relations 12-08-2024

Japan’s Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, has canceled a planned trip to Central Asia following an advisory from experts regarding an increased risk of a “megaquake” along the Pacific coast. The decision came after a 7.1 magnitude earthquake hit the southwestern region on Thursday, raising concerns about potential seismic activity.

The Japan Meteorological Agency issued a rare warning, indicating a higher-than-normal probability of a large earthquake occurring in the Nankai Trough, a subduction zone known for its history of powerful quakes. The advisory emphasized that while the likelihood of a significant earthquake has increased, it does not guarantee that one will happen in the near future.

Experts estimate a 70% to 80% chance of a magnitude 8 or 9 earthquake occurring in the next 30 years in this region. The potential worst-case scenario could result in up to 300,000 deaths and financial losses reaching $13 trillion. Geologists have described the history of earthquakes in the Nankai Trough as alarming, but they also noted that the probability of a large quake following Thursday’s event remains low, cautioning against public panic.