Department of Research, Strategic Studies and International Relations 04-10-2024

Japan’s new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba warned in his first policy speech Friday that “today’s Ukraine could be tomorrow’s East Asia” while also dubbing the country’s low birth rate a “quiet emergency.”

“Many fear that today’s Ukraine could be tomorrow’s East Asia. Why did deterrence not work in Ukraine?” Ishiba told parliament.

“Combined with the situation in the Middle East, the international community is becoming increasingly divided and confrontational,” the 67-year-old former defense minister said.

Japan’s relations with China have deteriorated in recent years as Beijing asserts its military presence around disputed territories in the region and Tokyo boosts security ties with the United States and its allies.

In August, a Chinese military aircraft staged the first confirmed incursion by China into Japanese airspace, followed weeks later by a Japanese warship sailing through the Taiwan Strait for the first time.

Ishiba backs the creation of a regional military alliance along the lines of NATO, saying on Tuesday that the security environment in Asia was “the most severe since the end of World War II.”

Falling population

Japan, like many developed countries, is facing a looming demographic crisis as its population ages and the birth rate stays stubbornly low.

The country has the world’s oldest population after tiny Monaco, according to the World Bank.

Last year its birth rate — the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her life — stood at 1.2, well below the 2.1 children needed to maintain the population.

On Friday, Ishiba called the birth rate situation a “quiet emergency”, adding that the government will promote measures to support families such as flexible working hours.

Minimum wage

Kishida was unpopular with voters because of a string of scandals and inflation squeezing earnings in the world’s fourth-biggest economy.

Ishiba wants to boost incomes through a new monetary stimulus package as well as support for regional governments and low-income households.

Within this decade, he said Friday he wants to hike the average national minimum wage to 1,500 yen ($10.20) per hour, up nearly 43 percent from the current 1,050 yen.

The yen surged last Friday after the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) voted Ishiba leader, because he had broadly backed the Bank of Japan’s exit from its ultra-loose policies.

But Ishiba told reporters late Wednesday that he did not think the environment was right for further interest rate hikes, sending the Japanese currency south again.

On Friday morning, one dollar bought 146.42 yen, having slightly recovered from levels past 147 earlier this week.