Israel is Preparing for a Potential Ground Offensive in Lebanon

Department of Strategic Security and Military Research and Studies 26-09-2024

Israel’s military chief has indicated that the country is gearing up for a possible ground operation into Lebanon, even as international pressure mounts for a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah.

As airstrikes targeting Hezbollah positions in Lebanon continued for a third consecutive day, Israel’s chief of staff, Major General Herzi Halevi, stated that these operations are intended to dismantle Hezbollah’s infrastructure, preparing for the possibility of Israeli troops entering Lebanon.

Addressing soldiers stationed in northern Israel, Halevi explained, “We are setting the stage for a ground operation, meaning that your boots will cross into enemy territory, into villages fortified by Hezbollah with underground networks, military outposts, and launchpads used to carry out attacks on Israeli civilians.”

However, despite these statements, Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh mentioned that a ground incursion did not seem imminent.

On Wednesday, Hezbollah launched a long-range missile towards Tel Aviv, prompting Israeli strikes on areas north of Beirut for the first time during this conflict. This escalation led to an Israeli warning about a significant response.

Halevi’s statements come as the U.S. pressures for a pause in hostilities, with President Joe Biden expressing concern about the risk of an “all-out war” in the region. Biden remarked to ABC that while such a war is possible, there may also be an opportunity for a resolution that could reshape the region. The U.S.-led effort to broker a ceasefire has gained support from France and Arab nations, but it depends on Hezbollah ceasing its attacks on Israel. France has also called for a UN Security Council meeting to discuss the conflict in Lebanon.

Hezbollah, however, insists that it will not halt its actions unless Israel ceases its operations in Gaza, where negotiations for a ceasefire in exchange for hostages have been stalled.

As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepared to attend the UN General Assembly, Israeli officials remained skeptical of any potential ceasefire.

Lebanese authorities reported that the Israeli bombardment over the past three days has resulted in over 600 deaths, with thousands more injured. The UN noted that 90,000 people had been displaced since the bombardment began, adding to the over 200,000 who had already fled southern Lebanon amid cross-border clashes.

With the situation escalating into a full-blown conflict, world leaders at the UN General Assembly warned of the potential for broader regional warfare. In response, governments from Moscow to Washington urged their citizens in Lebanon to leave while commercial flights out of Beirut were still available.

Israel has justified its campaign against Hezbollah by pointing to the evacuation of 60,000 Israelis from border areas. So far, Israeli operations have been limited to airstrikes, but the military has called up two reserve brigades for operations in the north, signaling that ground forces may soon be ready to cross the border.

Major General Uri Gordin, head of the IDF northern command, told soldiers from an armored unit that the conflict had entered a new phase and that they should be ready for action. “We need to change the security situation,” he said in a message broadcast on army radio.

Israeli strikes continued to target Hezbollah positions, including a missile strike on Maysaara, 100km north of the border, raising concerns that the conflict may expand to other parts of Lebanon.

In Lebanon, aid agencies reported that thousands of people fleeing Israeli attacks have crossed into Syria, reversing a decade-long trend of Syrian refugees entering Lebanon.

Despite days of heavy bombardment by Israeli forces, Hezbollah remains capable of posing a serious threat. On Wednesday, it attempted to strike Tel Aviv with a missile, but Israel’s air defense system intercepted it, preventing any damage. Hezbollah claimed it had targeted intelligence facilities, emphasizing its continued operational capabilities even after many top commanders had been killed and a significant portion of its arsenal destroyed by Israeli strikes.

An Israeli military spokesperson said the missile was headed towards civilian areas, and clarified that the Mossad headquarters, which Hezbollah claimed to be targeting, was not in that location.

Elsewhere, a drone attack hit a building in Eilat, southern Israel, injuring two people. The attack was claimed by an Iran-backed militia based in Iraq.

Israel estimates that Hezbollah had an arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles at the start of the conflict. Several top commanders, including the head of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan force and the commander of its missile unit, Ibrahim Qubaisi, have been killed in recent Israeli strikes.

Although Hezbollah has suffered significant losses, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has expressed confidence in the group’s ability to endure. “Hezbollah’s organizational strength and human resources remain robust and won’t be crippled by the loss of a senior commander, even though it’s a notable blow,” Khamenei said.

Over the years, Hezbollah has shown resilience in the face of major losses, often bouncing back to confront Israeli forces despite the significant disparity in military capabilities.

In response to escalating tensions, Israel has increased security measures, including closing schools in northern areas and evacuating civilians. One rocket strike hit an assisted living facility in Safed, but there were no reported casualties. Meanwhile, life in Tel Aviv resumed a semblance of normalcy after the missile threat was neutralized, with residents going about their daily activities, including kite surfing on the coast.

Bar Zinderman, a Tel Aviv resident, reflected on the tense situation after rushing to a bomb shelter with his two-year-old son earlier that morning. “It’s frightening, but I think we’re making the right choice. We’re fighting to protect our country and hope this pressure leads to peace.”

Lebanese parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri said he was working with the U.S. and his government to broker a diplomatic resolution between Hezbollah and Israel, while Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib expressed disappointment with President Biden’s recent UN address, saying it did not offer a solution to Lebanon’s problems.