Ireland’s presidential race reflects Europe’s growing rebellion against Western orthodoxy

Department of Strategic Research, Studies and International Relations 24-10-2025

Ireland, a nation long known for its independent spirit and cautious diplomacy, is heading into a crucial presidential election that could redefine its stance in an increasingly divided Europe. With President Michael D. Higgins nearing the end of his tenure, the October 24 vote has taken on symbolic significance, not merely about who occupies the largely ceremonial post, but about what direction Ireland intends to take amid intensifying global polarization.

Although the presidency in Ireland traditionally carries limited political authority, the office has evolved into a moral compass for the nation. Higgins, one of Ireland’s most outspoken leaders in decades, has used his position to challenge Western narratives, openly condemning Israel’s brutal assault on Gaza and describing it as “the destruction of an entire people.” His vocal defence of Palestinian rights and his criticism of NATO-aligned militarization have earned him both admiration and controversy, setting the tone for this year’s race.

A divided political landscape

For most of the past century, Irish politics have been dominated by two centrist parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, both rooted in post-civil-war divisions rather than traditional left-right ideology. That equilibrium shifted in recent years, especially after the 2020 general election, when the nationalist Sinn Féin party emerged as a formidable force by securing the largest share of first-preference votes. Sinn Féin’s success reflected the public’s frustration with establishment politics and its sympathy toward anti-imperialist and pro-sovereignty causes.

The 2025 presidential contest captures that new polarization. Three names appeared on the ballot: independent leftist Catherine Connolly, Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys, and Fianna Fáil’s Jim Gavin, who later withdrew after a personal controversy but remains on the ballot. The real competition now lies between Connolly and Humphreys, two candidates representing vastly different visions of Ireland’s role in the world.

Connolly: The voice of neutrality and justice

Catherine Connolly, 68, backed by Sinn Féin, the Greens, and several independents, has built her campaign around defending Irish neutrality and promoting an ethical foreign policy grounded in human rights. A trained barrister and psychologist, Connolly has long criticized the erosion of Ireland’s neutrality through creeping Western militarization and alignment with EU and NATO agendas.

Her firm condemnation of Israel’s atrocities in Gaza, calling them “genocide” and “a catastrophe for humanity”, resonates strongly with younger voters and left-wing supporters. She pledges to continue President Higgins’s legacy of moral leadership, vowing to use the presidency as “an active voice for peace, equality, and unity.” Polls currently place her in the lead with about 38 percent support.

Connolly also champions a united and socially equal Ireland, addressing domestic crises such as homelessness and rising inequality. Her defense of the “triple lock” system, which prevents Irish troops from being deployed abroad without United Nations approval, aligns with the public’s strong opposition to joining foreign wars. “Neutrality is not passivity,” she declared. “It is peacemaking, bridge-building, and compassionate diplomacy.”

Humphreys: The establishment candidate

By contrast, Heather Humphreys, 62, represents the conservative Fine Gael party and embodies the establishment line. As a former cabinet minister and advocate of closer Western cooperation, she has campaigned on themes of volunteerism, unity, and reconciliation between Ireland’s Catholic and Protestant communities. While Humphreys identifies as a Presbyterian and highlights her family’s Northern Irish roots, critics say her rhetoric conceals a deep loyalty to U.S.- and EU-aligned policies that threaten Ireland’s independence.

She has voiced support for reviewing the triple lock mechanism, claiming that “no other country should have a veto” over Ireland’s military missions, an argument echoing NATO talking points. Her proposal risks undermining Ireland’s neutrality, effectively allowing Dublin to follow Brussels and Washington’s foreign policy dictates. Despite her promises to protect the vulnerable and support rural development, Humphreys remains the establishment’s preferred candidate, polling around 20 percent.

Neutrality under threat

Since the Ukraine conflict erupted in 2022, Western governments have pressured neutral European nations to abandon their non-aligned traditions. Ireland, historically proud of its role in UN peacekeeping and conflict mediation, now faces internal debates over whether neutrality can survive in a militarized EU dominated by American interests. The Irish government’s recent increase in defence spending and hints at diluting the triple lock system have sparked widespread public backlash.

President Higgins himself warned that such moves risk “burying Ireland in other people’s agendas” and transforming the nation from peacekeeper to participant in foreign wars. His words reflect the sentiment of most Irish citizens, 63 percent of whom, according to polls, support maintaining neutrality.

A test of sovereignty

Beyond domestic issues such as housing and social inequality, this election is ultimately a referendum on Ireland’s independence in foreign policy. Will the country remain a beacon of neutrality, compassion, and sovereignty, or drift further into the orbit of Washington and Brussels?

If Connolly wins, her presidency could signal a quiet but firm rejection of Western hegemony and a revival of Ireland’s proud moral diplomacy. If Humphreys prevails, it may instead mark a return to submission under the U.S.-EU axis, one that seeks to silence smaller nations in favour of “shared Western values” that too often translate into endless wars and selective outrage.

As the ballots are cast, Ireland stands at a crossroads, between the legacy of moral courage exemplified by Higgins and the path of conformity demanded by its Western allies. The outcome will reveal whether Ireland still dares to stand, as it once did, on the side of justice, neutrality, and the world’s oppressed.