Iraqi Militias Intensify Attacks on Israel Amid Iranian Proxy Strategy

Department of Security and Military Strategic Research and Studies 18-10-2024

Iranian-aligned militias in Iraq have escalated their attacks on Israel, launching approximately 40 operations using missiles, drones, and rockets over the past two and a half weeks. This surge in aggression is part of a larger, covert proxy conflict unfolding across the Middle East.

The hostilities can be traced back to October of the previous year, coinciding with the outbreak of war in Gaza. However, recent data from the Washington Institute indicates a significant uptick in attacks following the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli airstrike on September 27. Established over 40 years ago with Iranian support, Hezbollah remains a central figure in the loose alliance of militant groups backed by Tehran.

With Hamas weakened after prolonged conflict in Gaza and Hezbollah currently facing a sustained Israeli offensive in Lebanon, Iran is now turning to its lesser-known proxies across the region. “The volume of missile and drone strikes originating from Iraq directed at Israel has surged dramatically. This shows a shift toward a more aggressive stance in support of Hezbollah,” noted Michael Knights, an analyst at the Washington Institute.

These missile launches reflect Iran’s strategy of leveraging its “axis of resistance” to bolster support among its various factions, while also highlighting internal competition among them. “The Iraqi militias, while not as capable as Hezbollah, are concerned about being overshadowed by other groups,” Knights explained.

Experts point out that Iran’s proxies in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen—where the Houthi militia has also targeted Israel—are potential retaliatory targets for Israel as it weighs responses to Iran’s recent missile barrage aimed at Israeli territories. Over the past year, Israel has executed numerous airstrikes, including a notable ground operation in Syria. These militant groups are not only focused on regional dominance but also aim to secure vital supply routes for Iran to support Hezbollah in Lebanon.

In a recent incident believed to be an Israeli sabotage operation, thousands of pagers issued by Hezbollah detonated, injuring individuals across Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon, with reports suggesting up to 40 casualties in Yemen. Kirsten Fontenrose from the Atlantic Council referred to these explosions as a “momentary flash of light on a dark network map,” indicating their potential to help intelligence agencies better understand Hezbollah’s extensive operations.

Among Israel’s recent operations was a raid on a weapons production site in Masyaf, Syria, where special forces targeted underground facilities and secured critical intelligence. Israel has increased its strikes on Iranian-linked positions in Syria since the October 7 attack by Hamas, targeting various locations including an industrial site in Homs and a military installation near Hama.

While Israel has not yet launched attacks directly in Iraq, it has targeted Iranian-affiliated figures operating in Syria. The Islamic Resistance of Iraq (IRI), formed shortly after the Gaza conflict escalated, has claimed responsibility for numerous strikes against Israeli and U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria.

Notably, the IRI conducted an attack that resulted in the deaths of three U.S. personnel earlier this year, leading to significant U.S. retaliatory airstrikes against Iranian-affiliated sites. After the IRI fired upon Eilat in September, an Israeli drone strike eliminated an IRI commander near Damascus.

Significantly, the IRI has been collaborating with the Houthis, who have expanded their operations into Iraq. A U.S. strike in July targeted both a Houthi commander and several Iraqi militia members, illustrating the increasingly intertwined nature of these militant groups.

Israel has also carried out direct strikes in Yemen, destroying strategic oil facilities and power plants, indicating its broader strategy to signal Iran. Recent airstrikes resulted in numerous civilian casualties, highlighting the complex humanitarian implications of this ongoing conflict.

The geopolitical turmoil in Iraq and Syria has garnered limited media and political attention. As Knights remarked, “Every major conflict has its overlooked dimensions.” This underscores the intricate and often hidden nature of the proxy battles that define the broader Middle Eastern landscape.