Department of Strategic Security and Military Research and Studies 10-10-2024

Hurricane Milton has made landfall in Florida, with US authorities warning of “life-threatening storm surges, severe winds, and flash flooding” impacting the central areas of the southern state. The storm’s arrival follows closely on the heels of Hurricane Helene, which caused significant destruction across the southeastern US two weeks ago.

 When Did Hurricane Milton Strike Florida?

Hurricane Milton touched down in Siesta Key, Florida, a coastal community just south of Tampa, at approximately 20:30 EST on Wednesday (03:30 BST Thursday), according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The storm has left over two million homes and businesses without power, destroyed numerous residences, and caused several fatalities, though the exact number remains unconfirmed.

Meteorologists are continuing to warn of heavy rainfall, flash flooding, strong winds, and potential storm surges, where ocean water is pushed inland, with some surges reaching several feet. Tornadoes were also reported as Milton made its approach.

Where Is Hurricane Milton Headed Next?

With wind gusts recently measured at speeds of up to 90mph (150km/h), Hurricane Milton continues its path through central Florida, affecting not only Florida but also Georgia and South Carolina. It is expected to move into the Atlantic Ocean later in the day.

Milton’s journey began in the Gulf of Mexico, where it was designated a category one hurricane last Sunday. It also impacted Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula before shifting slightly south, prompting forecasters to revise its projected path. The storm is currently affecting areas previously ravaged by Hurricane Helene, including the Tampa metropolitan area, home to over three million residents, which lies just north of Siesta Key.

 Evacuation Zones for Hurricane Milton

In anticipation of Milton, heavy traffic congestion was reported, and airports across Florida shut down as the state braced for one of its largest evacuation operations in years. Officials warned that Hurricane Milton could be the most destructive storm to hit the region in nearly a century.

Most counties along Florida’s west coast declared states of emergency, with evacuation orders issued up and down the coast. Emergency shelters were also set up to accommodate those unable to evacuate.

 Understanding Hurricanes and Their Formation

Hurricanes, known as cyclones or typhoons in other regions, are tropical storms that originate in the North Atlantic, bringing powerful winds and torrential rains. These storms form when warm, moist ocean air rises, cools, and forms clouds. When the air at the top of the storm moves faster than the air at the surface, pressure drops, causing the winds to intensify as more air is pulled into the storm.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the 2024 hurricane season is expected to be unusually active, a trend partially attributed to rising sea temperatures caused by human-induced climate change.

 How Are Hurricanes Classified?

Hurricanes are rated on a scale of one to five based on wind speed. Hurricane Milton, initially a category five storm, weakened to category three by the time it made landfall. After hitting Florida, it was downgraded to category one.

 The Role of Climate Change in Hurricane Milton

Hurricane Milton gained strength rapidly as it passed over the Gulf of Mexico, where sea surface temperatures were 1-2°C above normal. Warmer waters allow hurricanes to absorb more energy, increasing the potential for higher wind speeds. Additionally, a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, resulting in more intense rainfall during storms.

Global sea levels, which have risen significantly due to climate change, exacerbate the risk of coastal flooding. Since 1970, sea levels in Florida have risen by more than seven inches (18 cm), according to US government data. While a thorough scientific study is required to determine the exact influence of climate change on Hurricane Milton, its rapid intensification aligns with expectations of how storms behave in a warming world