Heightened Fears and Mistrust: A Battleground County Grapples with US Election Security Concerns

Department of Research, Strategic Studies and International Relations 30-10-2024

In Saginaw County, Michigan, anxiety surrounding the upcoming U.S. presidential election has shifted from fears of fraud to concerns about safety, reflecting the tense atmosphere gripping the nation. Once primarily focused on whether the election would be rigged, locals are now increasingly worried about potential violence at polling stations.

Vanessa Guerra, Saginaw County’s clerk, has grown accustomed to addressing the suspicions voiced by supporters of former President Donald Trump. Questions about the integrity of election results have been common, but at recent public meetings meant to ease voters’ concerns, a new fear has surfaced: safety. Guerra recounts the change, noting, “I’ve always had questions about election validity, but now people are asking: Will it even be safe to go to the polls? Will something happen on election day?”

The upcoming presidential election is shaping up to be one of the most contested in recent memory, with Republican officials reportedly prepared to challenge results if they go against Trump. The former president has repeatedly hinted at a violent response should he lose again, a threat made more real by the storming of the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, following his 2020 defeat.

In Michigan, a pivotal swing state, distrust in the electoral process runs deep. Although Trump narrowly won Michigan in 2016, he lost the state to Joe Biden four years later, prompting lingering claims of election fraud. Polls reveal that about one in five Michigan residents remain skeptical about whether votes will be counted correctly, with even fewer Trump supporters nationally expressing confidence in a fair election. Only 8% of Trump’s supporters have strong faith in the election process, compared to 72% of Harris’ supporters who feel confident the election will be fairly conducted, though significant doubts persist even among Democrats.

Alarmingly, a large proportion of both Trump and Harris supporters anticipate mass protests regardless of who wins the election. This fear is heightened in Michigan, where tensions boiled over in 2020 when Trump supporters attempted to breach a vote-counting center in Detroit as Trump’s lead evaporated. Michigan has since bolstered security at election sites, preparing for the possibility of further unrest.

In response to Trump’s repeated claims of fraud, Guerra and other clerks across the country have held informational sessions to clarify the election process. They’ve even encouraged skeptical citizens to volunteer as election inspectors to witness the process firsthand. However, addressing concerns about personal safety is more difficult. Guerra, although a Democrat, emphasizes the nonpartisan nature of her role, explaining that election security has always been a priority. Yet she admits that the charged rhetoric surrounding this election has intensified fear among voters.

Michigan’s Secretary of State, Jocelyn Benson, has also faced heightened security threats. Benson, who regularly receives threats related to the election, was recently targeted by swatting incidents, where false emergency reports resulted in armed police descending on her home. In 2020, armed protesters gathered outside Benson’s home, demanding she overturn Michigan’s election results. Benson remains defiant, refusing to be intimidated by these acts of political violence.

Although Guerra herself hasn’t been threatened in her current role, she experienced significant intimidation during her time in the Michigan legislature in 2020. That year, armed Trump supporters stormed Michigan’s state capitol to protest pandemic-related lockdowns, an event many now see as a precursor to the January 6 Capitol attack. As the election nears, she’s observed a growing trend of people opting to vote absentee due to concerns over safety. Over 25% of registered voters in Saginaw County have already requested absentee ballots, with many citing fears of violence on election day.

Absentee voting, however, has become a focal point of conspiracy theories. Trump and his allies have long claimed, without evidence, that mail-in ballots were used to rig the 2020 election. In Michigan, absentee ballots were counted after in-person votes, leading to delays in results that ultimately favored Biden. While Michigan has since amended its laws to allow absentee ballots to be processed before election day, doubts persist among Trump’s supporters.

Trump’s stance on absentee voting has also evolved. Initially, he discouraged his supporters from voting by mail, fearing it would be used against him. But with absentee voting now more accessible, he has softened his position to avoid dissuading his base from voting altogether. Nonetheless, many local Republicans in Saginaw remain skeptical.

Debra Ell, who led a pro-Trump takeover of Saginaw’s Republican party, maintains that absentee ballots were used fraudulently to steal the 2020 election. While she does not accuse local officials of wrongdoing, she remains distrustful of the electoral system as a whole, particularly regarding absentee voting and voter roll maintenance. Ell believes that deceased individuals and those who no longer live in the area were still able to vote, adding fuel to her suspicions.

Andrea Paschall, a Republican activist in Saginaw and founder of “Latinos for Trump,” also believes the 2020 election was stolen, though she hasn’t found evidence specific to her county. Despite her uncertainty about Saginaw, she is convinced that widespread fraud occurred and worries that this election will be similarly compromised.

Guerra remains steadfast in her belief that the 2020 election was conducted fairly, and she continues to meet with local Republican officials in an effort to build trust. However, she acknowledges that public confidence in the election process is fragile. For Guerra, the only way to avoid post-election chaos may be for the results to show a decisive victory for one candidate, leaving little room for dispute.

“Ideally, there would be a clear winner,” Guerra states, hoping that a wide margin between the candidates will prevent prolonged battles over the legitimacy of the results.