Heat-Related Deaths in Europe Could Triple by the End of the Century

Department of Research, Strategic Studies and International Relations 22-08-2024

Southern European countries are at the highe strisk, with an increase in heat-related death sex pected to surpass the decline in cold-related fatalities if global temperature srise by 3°C to 4°C.

A recent study has projected that the number of heat-related deaths in Europe could triple by the end of this century, with southern European nations like Italy, Greece, and Spain facing the greatest impact.

Currently, cold weat heris responsible for more death sthanhe atacross Europe, leading some to believe that a warming climate might reduce mortality.

However, the study, published in *The Lancet Public Health*, reveals that this as sumption maybe mis guided.

 The research in dicates that rising temperatures, combined with an aging population, could actually lead to an increase in heat-related deaths, even as cold-related fatalities decrease more slowly.

If global warming reaches a sever elevel of 3°C to 4°C abovepre-industrial levels, the study warns that the rise in heat-related death swill far exceed the reduction in cold-related fatalities.

The findings suggest that climate change could create “unprecedented challenges” for public health systems, particularly during heat waves.

According to David García-León from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, whoco-authored the study, “significantly more heat-related deaths are expected as the climate warms and populations age, while cold-related deaths willonly decline slightly.”

The study projects that if temperature srise by 3°C abovepre-industrial levels, heatcould cause 129,000 deaths annually, compared to 44,000 today.

Even if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, the combine dannual deatht oll from heat and cold in Europe coul drise from 407,000 today to 450,000 by 2100.

This research follows a series of extreme heat waves that have devastated Europe, countering claims by climate change skeptics that global warming wills a velives by reducing cold-related deaths.

The study reveals that, even in Europe, where the climate is generally cooler, the increase in heat-related fatalities will out weigh any benefits from milder winters.

 Countries in other continents, including Asia, Africa, Oceania, and the Americas, are experiencing even more dangerous heat levels.

Madeleine Thomson, the head of climate impacts and adaptation at the Wellcome Trust, who was not involved in the study, emphasized the importance of the research.

Shenoted that the expected tripling of heat-related deaths in Europe is only part of the picture, as extreme heat is also linked to other health issues, such as mis carriages and deteriorating mental health.

Additionally, the indirect consequences of extreme heat, such as crop failures, wil dfires, infrastructure damage, and economic impacts, could furth erthre at enlives.

The researcher sbased their findings on data from 854 cities across Europe, analyzing death srelated to both hot and cold temperatures.

 They found that all regions of Europe would see an increase in heat-related deaths, with southern countries bearing the brunt.

 In a scenario where the planet warms by 3°C, the death toll from uncomfortable temperature scouldrise by 13.5%, leading to 55,000 additional deaths, primarily among people over the age of 85.

Gary Konstantinoudis, an epidemiologist from the MRC Centre for Environment and Health, who was not part of the study, praisedits quality but noted that predicting temperature-related mortalityis complex and involves uncertainties.

He pointed out that the study’s estimates might behigh becaus ethey did not account for improvements in health care and infrastructure, which other research suggests could mitigate some of the impacts of rising temperatures.

The study also extended urban heat mortality data to rural areas, which generally experience les sheat stress.

 Elisa Gallo, an environmental epidemiologist at IS Global who was also not involved in the study, stressed the growing necessity for adaptation to increasing temperatures.

The researcher surged governments to implement policies aimed at reducing heat-related deaths, such as investing in healthcare facilities, developing action plans, and improving building insulation.

 Theye mphasized that the projecte dincrease in death sisdriven by both demographic changes and climate trends in Europe.

To prevent the worst-case scenario, it is crucial to address the root cause by reducing green house gasemissions, according to Gallo.

 The study al so highlights the need for adaptation efforts to focus on region sfacing high unemployment, poverty, economic shifts, emigration, and aging populations, as these areas are more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and less equipped to adapt to the increasing number of heat-related deaths.