Department of Research, Studies and International News 11-02-2025

The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is on the verge of collapse as Hamas announced an indefinite suspension of hostage releases, citing Israeli violations of the agreement. The move has prompted heightened military alert in Israel and fueled concerns among international mediators about the truce’s future. As tensions rise, Israel’s defense minister has ordered the army to prepare for any potential developments in Gaza.

Ceasefire Under Threat

Egyptian security sources indicate that mediators have postponed further negotiations until there is clarity from Washington on whether the phased ceasefire deal will continue. Israel’s security cabinet has advanced its meeting on the next phase of negotiations, initially planned for Tuesday evening, signaling growing urgency over the deteriorating situation.

In a statement issued on Monday, Hamas maintained that the “door remains open” for the next round of hostage-prisoner exchanges but emphasized that Israel must first adhere to its commitments. The militant group accused Israel of delaying the return of Palestinian civilians to northern Gaza, blocking humanitarian aid, and engaging in attacks on civilians. Hamas also insisted that its decision to halt releases was communicated five days ahead of the scheduled exchange to allow mediators time to pressure Israel into compliance.

Rising Political and Public Pressure

The announcement has sparked a wave of protests in Tel Aviv, where relatives of hostages and their supporters blocked streets, demanding that the government secure the release of all captives. Many accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of jeopardizing the deal through provocative rhetoric and stalling tactics.

“Netanyahu’s deliberate procrastination and unnecessary provocations have disrupted the agreement’s implementation,” said Einav Zangauker, whose son, Matan Zangauker, remains in captivity and is not listed for release in the current phase of exchanges.

As part of the first stage of the ceasefire deal, Hamas is expected to release 33 Israeli hostages, though eight of them are reportedly deceased. In return, Israel has agreed to free approximately 1,900 Palestinian prisoners. So far, Hamas has released 16 Israeli hostages and five Thai nationals, though the latter were not part of the official negotiations.

Adding to the mounting pressure, U.S. President Donald Trump has issued an ultimatum, warning that if all Israeli hostages are not returned by Saturday at noon, he would advocate for canceling the ceasefire and allowing “all hell to break loose.” Speaking from the Oval Office, Trump condemned Hamas’s decision to halt hostage releases and suggested that Israel should take decisive action if the deadline is not met.

“But as far as I’m concerned, if all of the hostages aren’t returned by Saturday 12 o’clock, I think it’s an appropriate time, I would say cancel it and all bets are off,” Trump stated. While leaving the final decision to Israel, he hinted at undisclosed consequences for Hamas should they fail to comply.

Trump’s remarks have further complicated an already volatile situation. His administration has proposed that Palestinian refugees from Gaza be relocated to neighboring Jordan and Egypt, threatening to withhold U.S. aid to those countries if they refuse. Egypt, however, swiftly rejected any plan that compromises Palestinian rights, emphasizing that forced displacement is not an option.

The Qatari foreign ministry, typically neutral in its public statements, issued a rare condemnation of Netanyahu after he suggested that Saudi Arabia should allocate land for a future Palestinian state. Qatar, a key mediator in the hostage negotiations, warned Israeli officials that their approach to the ceasefire’s second phase could jeopardize the entire agreement.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu is facing mounting pressure from within his own government. Far-right finance minister Bezalel Smotrich has threatened to resign from the coalition if military operations in Gaza do not resume after the return of 33 hostages. His ultimatum puts Netanyahu in a difficult position, forcing him to choose between maintaining his government’s stability and continuing negotiations.

Future Prospects and Escalation Risks

The second phase of the ceasefire deal, initially agreed upon just before Trump’s inauguration in January, was expected to facilitate the release of all remaining Israeli hostages in exchange for a full Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza. However, given the recent developments, this stage now appears increasingly uncertain. Mediators fear that with the deal on the brink, hostilities could soon resume, leading to further devastation in Gaza and prolonged regional instability.

As diplomatic efforts stall and political tensions escalate, the fate of hostages and the ceasefire remains in limbo. Whether mediators can salvage the agreement in the coming days will determine if the tenuous peace holds or if another round of conflict is imminent.