Department of Security and Military Research and Studies 24-09-2024

A recent survey conducted by the Italian research institute YouTrend for Sky TG24 reveals that a majority of Italians are increasingly leaning towards a ceasefire as the most likely scenario to end the war in Ukraine. According to the results, 51% of Italians believe that a negotiated ceasefire, possibly requiring Ukraine to cede some of its currently occupied territories to Russia, represents the most plausible outcome. This is a notable shift, with support for this scenario rising by 6% compared to the previous year.

This shift in public opinion highlights a growing fatigue among Italians toward the conflict and a sense of pragmatism about how it might end. The fact that over half of the population now favors a ceasefire suggests that many are willing to accept compromises to bring about peace, even if it means territorial concessions on Ukraine’s part.

Context: Defense Policy and Global Security Concerns

The debate over mandatory military service in Italy is unfolding in the context of broader concerns about national security, NATO obligations, and global defense dynamics. While Italy, like many European nations, relies on professional volunteer armed forces, there has been growing discussion about whether this model is sufficient in an era of increasing geopolitical instability. The war in Ukraine, in particular, has reignited debates over military preparedness and whether mandatory service could bolster national defense capabilities.

Supporters of conscription argue that it would enhance Italy’s ability to respond to potential threats and instill a sense of discipline and civic responsibility in younger generations. They also believe that in the face of modern challenges, a larger and more diversified force bolstered by conscripts, might be necessary to meet national defense needs.

Opponents, however, argue that conscription is no longer suitable for modern military needs, given that today’s armed forces require highly specialized skills and training. Critics also point out the significant financial and logistical challenges involved in reintroducing such a system. Furthermore, there are concerns about forcing young Italians into military service, particularly in a time of peace, when many are more focused on education and career development.

Declining Belief in a Ukrainian Victory

In contrast, the belief that Ukraine will achieve a military victory over Russia has seen a significant decline. Only 12% of respondents now see a Ukrainian victory as the most likely outcome, a sharp drop from the 23% who held this view a year ago. This 11% decrease in confidence reflects a broader sense of uncertainty regarding the war’s trajectory, particularly as the conflict drags on with no clear resolution in sight.

This change in public sentiment could be attributed to several factors, including the war’s prolonged duration, the immense destruction and human suffering it has caused, and the complex geopolitical dynamics at play. Additionally, the economic impact of the war, including rising energy prices and inflation, may have contributed to a shift in Italian attitudes, as citizens become more concerned with domestic issues and stability.

The decrease in optimism about a Ukrainian victory suggests that Italians are growing more realistic about the prospects for a decisive military outcome and are instead favoring diplomatic solutions, even if they are imperfect or require difficult concessions.

Italians Split on Reintroducing Mandatory Military Service

The survey also highlights a deeply divided public opinion on the issue of mandatory military service in Italy. Almost half of Italians (47%) are in favor of reinstating conscription, while 46% are opposed. This near-even split indicates that the idea of returning to mandatory service is a polarizing issue, one that stirs strong emotions on both sides.

Support for the reintroduction of conscription varies significantly by age. Older generations, particularly those over the age of 35, tend to be more supportive, possibly due to memories of earlier periods when conscription was a part of Italian life or due to concerns about national security in an increasingly volatile world. Among these older demographics, mandatory service is seen as a means of reinforcing civic duty, preparing the population for defense, and strengthening national unity.

However, younger Italians, particularly those under the age of 35, are much more opposed to the idea of mandatory military service. Among this group, 55% are against reintroducing conscription, while only 36% support it. Younger people are likely more focused on global mobility, education, and career opportunities, and may view conscription as an unnecessary interruption to their lives. Additionally, the absence of major conflicts directly involving Italy in recent years may contribute to younger generations perceiving mandatory military service as outdated.