Department of Research, Studies and International News 10-03-2025

As Greenland approaches a pivotal election, the Arctic island is under an unprecedented global spotlight. While key domestic issues such as education, healthcare, and independence are at the heart of the political debate, the election has taken on a unique significance due to growing international interest, particularly from the United States.

According to Greenlandic politician Aaja Chemnitz Larsen, while elections in Greenland typically focus on local concerns, this year’s vote has drawn exceptional attention from powerful external players, including the U.S. and Denmark. The heightened international interest stems largely from former U.S. President Donald Trump’s well-documented ambition to acquire Greenland, an idea he has repeatedly pushed, even reviving it with more aggressive rhetoric ahead of the election. His administration viewed the island as a crucial strategic asset due to its geographical position and rich natural resources.

Trump’s Influence and Growing Political Divisions

Trump’s renewed push for acquiring Greenland has reshaped the island’s political discourse. Even before his return to the political stage, his son, Donald Trump Jr., visited the capital, Nuuk, on a private trip that was widely publicized across social media. This visit, along with Trump’s threats of military action and economic pressure on Denmark, has intensified debate over Greenland’s political future.

At the center of this debate is Greenlandic Prime Minister Múte Egede, leader of the pro-independence Inuit Ataqatigiit party. His government faces a challenge from Naleraq, the main opposition party, which strongly advocates for breaking away from Denmark and is open to closer cooperation with the U.S. While polling is scarce in Greenland, analysts suggest the race is unpredictable, and the electorate remains deeply divided on the island’s future path.

The campaign period has been marked by growing social tensions. Chemnitz Larsen notes that, for the first time, politicians have been assigned security while canvassing. Public frustration has also been fueled by recent controversies, including a documentary by Danish broadcaster DR. The film alleges that Denmark earned up to 400 billion Danish kroner (approximately £45 billion) from Greenland’s cryolite mines between 1854 and 1987, a revelation that many in Greenland see as a symbol of colonial exploitation. Though some have questioned the accuracy of these figures, the documentary has undeniably influenced the election discourse, with over a third of voters stating it will impact their decision at the polls.

Unresolved Colonial Legacies

The election also takes place against the backdrop of historical grievances between Greenland and Denmark. One of the most troubling revelations in recent years has been the IUD scandal, in which an estimated 4,500 Greenlandic women and girls were allegedly subjected to forced contraception between 1966 and 1970. Prime Minister Egede has gone so far as to call this policy an act of genocide. Additionally, Denmark’s controversial “parenting competency” tests, which have led to the removal of many Inuit children from their families, have further strained relations between the two nations. Following significant backlash, the Danish government recently reversed its stance on the policy, but the damage to trust remains.

With Greenland’s population at just 57,000, of which only about 40,000 are eligible voters, every ballot cast will carry significant weight.

A Geopolitical Chess Game

While Trump’s remarks about acquiring Greenland sparked alarm in Denmark, many in Nuuk view the situation differently. Rather than outright rejecting U.S. interest, some Greenlanders see it as an opportunity to negotiate better terms with Denmark or accelerate the path to full independence.

Rasmus Leander Nielsen, head of the Nasiffik foreign and security policy center at the University of Greenland, describes the election as a convergence of everyday domestic politics and broader geopolitical concerns. He predicts that while a referendum on independence could occur in the near future, full autonomy is unlikely within the next four years. Instead, he anticipates a more gradual shift, similar to the Brexit process, in which negotiations would take years even if Greenland voted in favor of independence.

One potential outcome, Nielsen suggests, is that Greenland will push for a renegotiation of its relationship with Denmark while remaining within the kingdom. Given the increased global attention on the island, Greenland may now have greater leverage in its discussions with Copenhagen.

For Greenlandic politician Aki-Matilda Høegh-Dam, time is of the essence. She argues that Greenland must seize the moment to establish its voice on the global stage rather than passively waiting for independence. Høegh-Dam, who recently switched allegiance from the social democratic Siumut party to the pro-independence Naleraq, believes foreign policy expertise is now more crucial than ever for Greenlandic politicians.

International interest in the election has been unprecedented. According to Høegh-Dam, foreign media outlets and business leaders are paying close attention, recognizing Greenland’s growing strategic importance. The business sector, in particular, has shown enthusiasm. Drew Horn, a former Trump administration official and CEO of GreenMet, a Washington-based mineral investment firm, has claimed that “tens of billions” of dollars in investment could be funneled into Greenland immediately.

Similarly, Tom Dans, Trump’s former Arctic commissioner and an investor, acknowledges that while mining is a long-term industry rather than a source of quick profits, Greenland is entering an “exciting” era. He likens it to an unexplored frontier, comparing it to space exploration.

A Defining Moment for Greenland

As Greenland’s citizens prepare to cast their votes, the election is shaping up to be a turning point in the island’s history. The outcome could determine whether Greenland moves closer to full independence or negotiates a new arrangement with Denmark. With external powers like the U.S. and business investors closely watching, the stakes have never been higher.

What remains certain is that Greenland’s political landscape is shifting, and the world is taking notice. The path ahead is uncertain, but for the first time in history, Greenland holds considerable influence over its own destiny.