Global Shifts: How Will Trump Handle Them if He Returns to the White House?

By: Sabrin Ajaroudi, Department of Strategic Research and International Relations

07-29-2024

The 2024 U.S. presidential elections has provided a detailed snapshot of the American reality, highlighting the challenges facing democracy in the United States. These elections have starkly contrasted the idealistic visions associated with America since the 1970s with its current state of decline and erosion.

This election underscores the conflict between Democrats and Trump supporters, rather than traditional Republicans, as the Republican Party lacks a clear agenda following the loss of prominent leaders like the Bush family and members of Ronald Reagan’s generation. This indicates a period of identity crisis within the party, with Trump seen as a temporary savior until new Republican directions emerge.

In contrast, the Democrats are grounded in the “doctrine” established by Obama, which continues to significantly influence American internal affairs morally, economically, and socially. Thus, the Trumpian formula appears more likely to achieve victory in the current American landscape, given the noticeable weakness of Democratic presence and potential threats of internal crisis that could escalate into a “civil war,” as some Republicans have suggested.

However, Trump’s journey back to the White House is fraught with risks, as it could lead America into a turbulent phase, especially with the current tension providing fertile ground for the spread of political violence, including assassination attempts.

For instance, Jews find themselves caught between the issues of Ukraine and Gaza, while Trump handles these issues purely from an economic standpoint, which is unacceptable to both American and Israeli Zionists.

Moreover, Trump views relations with Europe as placing NATO in a challenging position regarding Russia, not only within the context of the Ukrainian file but also other European issues like “Bosnia and Herzegovina,” or what can be termed the “Arc of Instability” stretching across Eastern and Southeastern Europe.

Moscow confronts Western policies in this region through a long-term alliance with the leaders of “Republika Srpska,” a component of Bosnia and Herzegovina, alongside Bosnian Muslims. This Russian challenge has intensified with the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine. Consequently, NATO countries face the risk of partial American abandonment due to its entanglement in the Ukrainian crisis, resulting in political and economic complexities.

The Iranian nuclear issue remains a topic that could resurface, having characterized Trump’s first presidency and posed a greater challenge for Democrats than for Iranians.

Currently, Iran is in a crucial strategic phase, negotiating with Israel over the distribution of influence in the northern Arabian Peninsula, especially if “Palestinian reconciliation” under Chinese auspices materializes. This has been discussed in scientific and media forums under the title “The Current Arab Stage and Future Prospects.”

 Inevitable Tensions in the U.S. Domestic Sphere

Trump faces numerous challenges that make the internal American situation prone to many pitfalls. Various influential players oppose his return to power. At the same time, the possibility of his loss, as in 2020, could lead to chaos surpassing the “Capitol riot,” with Trump threatening his opponents with multiple scenarios leading to the brink of civil war.

Furthermore, the failure of the series of lawsuits against Trump to tarnish his political reputation has intensified the current atmosphere of tension and division, potentially leading to repeated assassination attempts.

Despite all this, the difficult American situation may ultimately support Trump’s ascent to the presidency as a means to navigate the current risks and defer problems to a later period of time.

 The Chaotic Nature of Trump’s Policies

Trump’s individualistic decision-making is a prominent feature, with his team being more “subordinate” than a functional advisory body. Trump’s political calculations are driven by the principle of achieving immediate economic benefits, and he will not address any political issues without securing economic advantages for the United States. Consequently, neither Ukraine nor comprehensive European security will be exceptions to this rule.

As a result, several sensitive and critical issues will face the chaos characterizing Trump’s administration. Stakeholders in these matters must handle this reality with caution and seriousness, avoiding reliance on Trump’s lost rationality.

Specifically, the Gulf issue will be central, given the deep contradictions some of its states face after signing normalization agreements, balancing Israeli interests of the normalizing countries, Palestinian rights, and the repercussions of the Gaza tragedy.

On the other side of equation, Iran leads, with its complex issues impacting Gulf and Arab national security through its extended presence in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon.

The most important question remains whether or not Trump will accept being a subordinate to global south projects based on shared economic benefits.

Except for the role and effectiveness of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in several areas, particularly political and security, there are several economic pathways that may attract “Trump’s pragmatic mood” for cooperation with China and Russia. Notably, these pathways and systems play a vital role in achieving global balance, including:

1. The Chinese Silk Road and Economic Belt: This major project includes multiple alliances and partnerships, making it attractive for cooperation with Trump.

2. BRICS Alliance Group: Rapid expansion in membership and increasing GDP size surpassing the G7 countries.

3. OPEC: Its significant role in organizing the global energy market and balancing supply and demand could see further development in understanding with Trump, including opening a parallel path for the gas sector.

However, there are red lines the American side will not accept, such as reducing the role of traditional international financial institutions serving Western interests and limiting the dollar’s dominance over global economic movement and the SWIFT system.

Simultaneously, two factors may contribute to achieving a Russian-American understanding leading to global calm:

1. Reducing American support for transcontinental rights organizations promoting Western values and their social, cultural, and religious agendas, which conflict with traditional Russian principles and align with Trump’s rejection of abnormality and homosexuality.

2. Political resolution of the Ukrainian crisis, which is crucial for global stability, supported by recent statements from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, expressing willingness for an international peace conference with Russian participation. This signifies a major shift. Zelenskyy’s acknowledgment of the futility of a military solution and the potential for diplomatic solutions over the long term represents a strategic change.

 Potential Challenges for Trump

President Putin bets on the “future of the new world” and “multipolarity,” but Trump, if he wins the election, will face a greater challenge within the framework of what can be called “active variables for international settlement and calm.” This settlement will undoubtedly include “political” concessions from both Russia and America. In contrast, these circumstances will enhance Russia’s opportunities to adjust its “militarily inexpensive” strategies and bolster its strategic projects, including “the vision of a multipolar world,” reducing Western influence, strengthening the global south economically away from the dollar and its financial system, and boosting relations with the Arab Gul