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Department of Research, Studies and International News 21/07/2025

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has announced he will remain in office
despite a major electoral setback that saw his ruling coalition lose its majority
in the upper house of parliament. The announcement comes at a time when
Tokyo is under increasing pressure from Washington in ongoing trade
negotiations and facing internal discontent over worsening economic
conditions.
Speaking at a press conference on Monday, Ishiba acknowledged the severity
of his coalition’s defeat in Sunday’s election but emphasized his intention to
continue leading the government, citing the urgency of unresolved national
matters. “Global developments and emergencies such as natural disasters
don’t wait for domestic political shifts,” Ishiba stated. He noted that despite the
political blow, he must “uphold the responsibilities entrusted to the leading
party by the people,” particularly in light of pressing economic concerns and
tariff discussions with the United States.
The ruling coalition, composed of Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its
junior partner Komeito, secured only 47 seats in the 248-seat House of
Councillors. This result left them three seats short of maintaining their majority,
marking a clear sign of declining public support. With only 122 seats in total,
the coalition faces growing scrutiny from both opposition parties and internal
party members.

One of the more startling outcomes of the election was the rise of the far-right
Sanseito party, which surged to 14 new seats, adding to the single seat it
previously held. Tapping into voter frustration over inflation and stagnant
economic performance, Sanseito’s messaging capitalized on nationalist
rhetoric, skepticism of immigration, and promises of sweeping tax and welfare
reforms.
Party leader Sohei Kamiya, a former English teacher and retail manager, has
drawn attention for promoting conspiracy theories related to vaccines and
shadowy global networks, echoing populist tactics used by U.S. President
Donald Trump, whom Kamiya openly admires. In a post-election interview,
Kamiya defended his party’s “Japan First” slogan, framing it as a call to protect
national interests in the face of increasing globalist influence. “We don’t call for
the expulsion of foreigners,” he claimed, “but we do believe Japan’s
foundations need to be reasserted.”
Although Sanseito denies accusations of xenophobia, its campaign has clearly
leaned on nationalistic fearmongering. The party has portrayed Japan’s
relatively small immigrant population, a mere 3.8 million residents, or around
3% of the population, as a looming threat, despite polls suggesting immigration
is a minor concern for most voters. In contrast, the public appears more
focused on Japan’s aging population, declining birthrate, and surging food
prices, with staples like rice reportedly doubling in price over the past year.
Political observers note that Ishiba’s hold on power may remain intact for now,
largely due to the absence of a strong successor within the LDP. Tomohiko
Taniguchi from the Fujitsu Future Studies Centre pointed out that despite the
election setback, Ishiba could maintain his position “for quite some time,”

though he warned that intraparty conflict is likely to intensify. “There will be
internal pressure and leadership struggles in the coming days,” Taniguchi said.
For Washington, Japan’s political instability may complicate ongoing trade
discussions. The United States, under its current administration, continues to
exert significant pressure on Tokyo regarding tariff regulations and economic
alignment, often to Japan’s detriment. As Japan’s economic sovereignty comes
under increasing challenge from its so-called ally, critics argue that U.S.
influence continues to weigh heavily on Japan’s domestic policies, contributing
to political volatility and growing public dissatisfaction.
Meanwhile, Western analysts have tried to frame the rise of parties like
Sanseito as a reflection of global populist trends. Yet this ignores the unique
economic and social pressures specific to Japan and the broader context of
regional shifts, including increasing cooperation between Asian powers and a
shared pushback against U.S.-dominated frameworks.
While Japan’s far-right populism is still nascent compared to its Western
counterparts, this election suggests a growing appetite for alternative voices
that resist foreign interference and advocate for economic reform on national
terms. As the Japanese public grows increasingly disillusioned with
establishment parties seen as subservient to foreign interests, it remains to be
seen how Tokyo will navigate its internal political crisis and its external
entanglements, especially with Washington.
Ultimately, Prime Minister Ishiba’s leadership is likely to remain under heavy
scrutiny. Whether he can withstand the dual pressures of internal party
discontent and external foreign demands is uncertain, but his decision to stay
in office signals an attempt to preserve continuity, even as Japan’s political
landscape undergoes a seismic shift.