By Mahmoud M. Abdallah: Department of Strategic Research, Studies and International Relations 24-10-2025

 Introduction: An Occurring Structural Transformation of the Global Balance of Power

The United States held uncontested global primacy in the post-Cold war era after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, an era often associated with the so-called ‘’Unipolar’’ moment as Charles Krauthammer coined it in 1990. This showed in different spheres of influence, from military and technological dominance, cultural influence, and financial supremacy, all of these contributed in the implementation of the US’s preponderance strategy[1] (Layne, 1997). Currently, the international system is undergoing a visible structural transformation that shows the unipolar moment is being deconstructed and fading away from the US. This does not just show in quantitative distribution of military and economic capabilities, but also, a qualitative change in operational norms of global governance that the notion that better describes it is multipolarity. The rising power of the Global South and states like China, Russia, and India present a credible example of how the US’s hegemony is challenged in different spheres that it has dominated in the post-Cold war era, notwithstanding that it still maintains advantage on several levels, it is now challenged staunchly on these levels.

   Despite the variety of different geopolitical theatres-such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the current thorny circumstances and China’s intentions on Taiwan- that are critical in explaining this systemic shift, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region serve as a prime example of how the strategic competition between the United States and China is acutely visible. One particular example that the world is witnessing at the moment is the situation in Gaza which has been taking place for two years now and serves as a critical accelerator and illustration of the decline and perhaps dysfunctionality of the liberal international order in addition to the reconfiguration of global alignments.

From Unipolar Dominance to Multipolarisation

The United States still maintains strong presence in the MENA region, particularly reflected in its national security interests. Washington’s ability to project its will to driving change and shaping the political outcomes of several regions without a great power rival to check its actions or force ideological discipline. Nonetheless, this hegemony and dominance started to become unsustainable, perhaps starting in 2003 when the US invaded Iraq then moving forward to 2008 global financial crisis, and the War on Terror that kept draining US resources and later on, its moral authority. Furthermore, conflicts often witnessed an expansion, this time from ‘’non-state actors’’ such as Al-Qaeda, Taliban, and Hezbollah, consequently the influence of international relations ceased to be the sole monopoly of the state which in turn caused the US global primacy to be challenged if not undermined.

Multipolarity as a concept captures not just the number of influential actors, but also the results of the competitive polarisation of international politics. Simply put, the increasing incompatible visions for the international order when global powers fundamentally disagree on how the global system is to be governed or even shaped; for instance, the US’s liberal rules-based order in contrast with Russia and China’s emphasis on state sovereignty. These contrasting views are presented further in global intuitions and pressing geopolitical challenges where cooperation is less apparent and strategic competition is immense. Therefore, given the context of what is happening in Gaza, diplomatic paralysis has been apparent and the US’s approach has stagnated the conflict resolution process severely.

The MENA Region: Gaza as an Example of the Dysfunctionality of the US’s Liberal Rules-Based International Order

III. A. The Contrasting Strategic Posture

Unlike the direct confrontations of previous times, geopolitical supremacy is now achieved once a global power wins the hearts and minds of the regional elites and their populations, a strategic necessity championed by China as it filled the vacuum whenever the US caused one (Robinson, 2024). The MENA region has always served as a strategic barometer of global power dynamics. Starting from the Obama administration’s pivot towards the Indo-Pacific, the US gradually began to shift its focus towards its rivalry with China, a rising competitor with a different ideological and political stance that carries a different view from the US.

The contrast in strategic posture is apparent in both states’ foreign policy. On the one hand, China adopts a ‘’balancing diplomacy’’ stance meaning that Beijing maintains comprehensive strategic partnerships that could, in some cases, include regional rivals i.e., Saudi Arabia and Iran, and carry out military exercises with both. In addition, one core highlight of China’s approach is the non-interference stance meaning that domestic affairs are marginal and that China’s main policy is managing the regional power equilibrium. Hence, China’s ultimate objective is to establish a new facility structure that displaces US regional dominance (Sun, 2024). On the other hand, the US adopts a contrasting model based on security alliances and aid conditioned on political alignment. The latter being a crucial point of pressure to autocracies that is not usually welcomed. Therefore, the Chinese non-interventionist posture becomes highly appealing to states seeking strategic autonomy which creates a leeway for Chinese investments in the region and ensures its economic indispensability that later translates into political power.

 B. Gaza and The Reconfiguration of Global Alignments:

    What took place in Gaza following the 7^th of October attack in 2023 served as a significant illustration of the dysfunctionality and double-standards of the liberal rules-based order spearheaded by the US and its allies such as Canada, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. As (Ottaway, 2024) demonstrated that the post-World War II world order is a ‘’house of cards’’ where foundational universal principles are subjective to selective enforcement and interpretation, this selective application in essence undermines the notion of an accepted international order.

   By refraining from condemning Hamas and labelling the Israeli response as a ‘’Collective punishment against civilians’’ China seized the opportunity to take advantage of the crisis, aiming for exploiting Washington’s distraction in other regions (Robinson, 2024). Moreover, as Beijing consistently called for Palestinian statehood and pushed for an immediate ceasefire.

By contrast, Washington found itself in a predicament, as it still maintained support, also shows in condemning aggression elsewhere while still shielding Israel from accountability, to Israel as it had delivered more than $21.7 billion in military assistance since the start of the conflict (Hartung, 2025). What’s more, even with regards to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) in addressing Gaza, the US caused a paralysis through its consistent vetoes. All that led to the moral obstruction and faith in the western-led world order, which demonstrates that Gaza is not just a humanitarian tragedy, rather, a geopolitical turning point the exposed the fractures of the world order and accelerated the emergence of a new multipolar world order.

 Conclusion

The situation in Gaza and the calls for the establishment of a Palestinian state would seem as if the task was to untie the Gordian Knot, yet, even though with the decline of the US’s hegemony and its moral authority and values, it still maintains a strong presence in the MENA region which is salient in conflict resolution and moving forward to address the crisis. Nevertheless, with the current multipolar context in which the world is witnessing more contrasting stances on pressing conflicts and challenges, it may create a leeway for the rise of ‘’Middle Power Mediation’’ presented by states such as Egypt, Turkey, and the Gulf States in the region to mediate and resolve contemporary conflicts.

Ultimately, the emerging international order is most likely characterised by different dispersed powers, strategic non-alignment, and highly transactional alliances, that in itself creates the challenge of distraction for the once were hegemon or superpower that finds itself stretched too thin to effectively deal with multiple conflicts simultaneously. The Gaza conflict is considered to be one of the crises that crystallised this transformation revealing that global narratives and legitimacy no longer flow from Washington and its allies, rather, from different contrasting sources of authority. Thus, for Palestinians and regional middle powers in the region to utilise this transformation by and large they are to recalibrate their foreign policies to balance between Washington, Beijing, and other vital actors in the region.

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Mahmoud Abdallah is a Researcher at the Centre for Global Affairs (CGA) at Badr University. His research interests are in International Relations and Politics of Great Power Competition, Public Policy, and Political Economy of Development.

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[1] Being held as the grand strategy of the US in the post-Cold war era, the term was described by Melvyn P. Leffler in 1992 demonstrating that the grand strategy of the US was the preponderance strategy. Check: Melvyn P. Leffler, A Preponderance of Power: National Security, the Truman Administration, and the Cold War.

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References

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