France and the US Advocate for a 21-Day Ceasefire Between Hezbollah and Israel Amid Growing Tensions

Department of Strategic Security and Military Research and Studies26-09-2024

In light of escalating tensions regarding Israel’s offensive against Hezbollah, the United States and France have proposed a 21-day ceasefire to facilitate broader diplomatic discussions. This initiative was announced as UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned during a UN Security Council meeting that the situation in Lebanon is deteriorating rapidly.

Following a severe three-day aerial bombardment by Israel that resulted in over 600 fatalities, concerns about a potential regional conflict are mounting. Israel’s military leadership has indicated preparations for a possible ground invasion of Lebanon.

In a joint statement, US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron stressed the need for a resolution on the Israel-Lebanon border to ensure safety for civilians and allow them to return home. They expressed concern that ongoing hostilities since October 7 and especially in recent weeks pose a significant risk of broader conflict and civilian casualties.

During their meeting at the UN General Assembly in New York, the two leaders emphasized that the temporary ceasefire is intended to create an opportunity for diplomacy to prevail and to prevent further escalation along the border. They called on both Israel and Lebanon to support the initiative, which has also received backing from various nations, including the UK, Australia, Canada, the EU, Germany, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar.

A senior US official indicated that responses from both Israel and Lebanon, which is thought to represent Hezbollah in these discussions, are anticipated soon. Officials clarified that this ceasefire proposal does not extend to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.

The 21-day timeframe was selected to allow for negotiations toward a more comprehensive agreement, enabling residents along the Israel-Lebanon border to return to their homes safely, without fear of renewed violence or future attacks similar to those on October 7.

A statement from the coalition of nations emphasized the untenable situation between Lebanon and Israel since October 8, 2023, describing it as a significant threat to regional stability and contrary to the interests of both Israeli and Lebanese people.

This announcement followed a heated UN Security Council session, during which Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati accused Israel of breaching Lebanon’s sovereignty, noting that hospitals in Lebanon are overwhelmed with casualties.

In response, Israel’s UN envoy asserted that the country does not seek a full-scale war, attributing the ongoing instability in the Middle East to Iranian influence.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi criticized the unwavering support of the US and UK for Israel, suggesting it has enabled aggressive actions.

Amidst these developments, tensions remain between the US and its European allies regarding the call for an immediate ceasefire at the UN Security Council. UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy advocated for an immediate ceasefire, arguing that escalating conflict would not benefit either the Israeli or Lebanese people. He condemned Hezbollah’s attacks and urged Iran to leverage its influence to encourage a ceasefire.

Conversely, US diplomats have expressed concern that a call for an unconditional ceasefire could imply a moral equivalence between Israel’s actions and those of Hezbollah, a group classified as a terrorist organization by the US.

The proposal for a temporary cessation of hostilities may also serve as a foundation for reviving stalled discussions on a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel in Gaza. Hezbollah has indicated a willingness to cease its attacks if Hamas agrees to a ceasefire in Gaza; however, there is currently no indication that either Hamas’s leadership or Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are nearing an agreement.

Netanyahu is scheduled to arrive in New York and is expected to address whether he supports the proposed 21-day cessation of hostilities.

US Deputy Envoy Robert Wood emphasized that escalating conflict would complicate diplomatic efforts, voicing grave concerns over reports of numerous civilian casualties in Lebanon. He pointed out that the root of the conflict lies in the displacement of large numbers of Lebanese and Israeli civilians due to Hezbollah’s actions, which undermined a previously stable peace.

Wood asserted that it is crucial to avoid a repeat of the 2006 war, stressing that any resolution must be accompanied by robust implementation mechanisms. However, specifics on these mechanisms were not disclosed, and their acceptance by Hezbollah remains uncertain, particularly if they impinge on its sovereignty.