Experts warn of deeper turmoil in Middle East

Department of Security and Military Research and Studies 05-10-2024

Raising the risk of deeper turmoil in the Middle East, tensions have heightened between Hezbollah and Israel, as well as Iran and Israel. So far Iran’s retaliatory move shows restraint and whether an all-out war can be avoided, mainly, depends on Israel’s next moves, analysts said.

Israel bombarded southern Beirut at least 10 times late on Thursday, according to Lebanon’s official National News Agency.

The escalating assaults by Israel came as it weighs retaliation for Iran’s barrage of missiles fired at the country on Tuesday. Iran said the attack was its response to the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, chief of its ally Hezbollah, and other top figures.

According to a CNN report, at least seven high-ranking Hezbollah commanders and officials have been killed by Israeli attacks in recent weeks.

Analyzing Iran’s attack, experts say that Teheran is mainly in a defensive position, and has been restrained amid the latest round of provocations from Israel.

As Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi stated on Wednesday, Iran took action after exercising “tremendous restraint for almost two months to give space for a cease-fire in Gaza”.

“Facing repeated provocations, Iran cannot remain indifferent at this moment. Otherwise, it will shake the unity with regional allies,” Li Xinggang, a researcher at the Institute for Studies on the Mediterranean Rim at Zhejiang International Studies University, told China Daily.

“The Iranian government needs to maintain its status as a regional power and also needs to respond to the expectations of its allies. So from one side, Iran has to respond, from another side, Iran must work hard to avoid a full-scale war,” Zhang Yuan, a professor at the Institute of Middle East Studies of Shanghai International Studies University, told China Daily.

Iran’s commitment to averting a regional crisis is clear in the way it handled previous incidents — Iran responded with restraint in the bombing of its embassy in Syria in April, and the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Teheran in August, Li said.

Pointing to the next developments, Li said: “The future depends on how Israel will retaliate against Iran in the future, as well as the intensity and severity of the retaliation.”

“If Israel takes severe retaliatory actions, especially if it attacks Iran’s oil and even nuclear facilities, Iran might respond militarily under the pressure of the situation,” Zhang added.

Once they engage in a full-scale war, it could have incalculable consequences for both countries and even the entire Middle East region, which does not align with the current interests of the United States, she added.

US President Joe Biden stated on Thursday that he does not believe there is going to be an all-out war in the Middle East.

“This remark reflects that the US does not want to be dragged into the mire,” Li said.

“As the country which influences Israel most, the United States does not want a full-scale war in the Middle East to disrupt its global strategic layout,” Zhang said.

Meanwhile, experts attributed the root cause of the current turmoil in the Middle East to the bias of the US and its support of Israel.

“If the unilateral thinking of the US hegemony and supremacy cannot be contained, the sword of Damocles of the war will still hang high on the land of the Middle East,” Zhang added.