Department of Research, Studies and International News 17-01-2025
Many people in the European Union member states are pessimistic about the incoming US administration of President Donald Trump, while people in other parts of the world have voiced mixed reactions, according to a recent survey.
Many outside the EU think Trump will not just be good for the United States but will bring peace or reduce tensions in Ukraine, the Middle East and US-China relations, according to the survey of 28,549 people in 24 countries conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations, or ECFR, and Oxford University.
India is the most optimistic about the second Trump term, with 82-85 percent saying Trump is good for US citizens, for India and for the world, followed by Saudi Arabia, Russia, South Africa, China, Turkiye and Brazil.
In China, half of the people surveyed said Trump is good for US citizens, 46 percent said he is good for China and 52 percent described him as good for the world.
However, citizens in traditional US allies such as the United Kingdom, the Republic of Korea, and EU member states express greater doubts about the future of a Trump administration. The European allies are the most pessimistic about the future global order in Trump’s second term.
In the EU and the UK, the majority of the people view the upcoming Trump administration as detrimental to US citizens, their own countries, and the resolution of global conflicts.
In the ROK, public opinion regarding Trump’s second term is worse than in the EU.
“It is ironic that the very things that make Trump’s return to the White House so scary for many Europeans are what make him attractive to the rest of the world,” said Mark Leonard, director of ECFR.
Europe panicking
He said that Europe is panicking at the rhetoric surrounding “America First”, and the notion that the US will cease to be an upholder of the global order in favor of pursuing its own selfish interests.
“But this is precisely what people — particularly those living in middle powers across the world — are impatient about. They no longer want the US to be a self-appointed moral arbiter or global policeman. They’re much more comfortable dealing with it as the most powerful country in a more transactional world,” he said.
The survey noted that the EU is divided in its perception of Trump.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban are widely regarded as the two EU leaders with closer ties to Trump, but they are often the targets of attacks in Brussels.
Across the EU, 22 percent of respondents view the US as an ally, 51 percent regard it as a necessary partner, 9 percent describe the US as a rival and 3 percent call it an adversary in conflict.
Ding Chun, director of the Center for European Studies at Fudan University, said that as US allies, the EU’s mainstream is still indulging in the so-called liberal world order dominated by the US and the EU despite the significant change as a result of the latest US election.
“Other parts of the world are less pessimistic but adapting to the changes, EU should follow suit to bravely adapt to the transformation,” he said.
The European Commission has played down Trump’s threatening rhetoric relating to the EU, such as regarding Greenland. Carl Bildt, the former prime minister of Sweden, warned that such a threat of land grab is dangerous.
“Trump’s indecent proposal, delivered at the barrel of a gun, is not only absurd but dangerous,” he wrote on Project Syndicate.
The survey also finds that most people think that in the next 20 years, China will be the strongest power in the world, stronger than the US. Only more people in three of the 24 countries — the US, ROK and Ukraine — think it’s unlikely.
