Escalating Global Warming Intensifies Deadly Floods Across Africa

Department of Research, Strategic Studies and International Relations 30-10-2024

Africa, despite contributing only a small fraction to global emissions, is experiencing the harsh effects of climate change, which has intensified severe flooding across the continent in 2024, according to recent scientific studies.

Experts from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) network reported on Wednesday that human-induced climate change, primarily driven by the burning of fossil fuels, has worsened seasonal rainfall in several African regions, including the Niger and Lake Chad basins. These areas have seen an increase in rainfall intensity by 5-20% this year, leading to catastrophic humanitarian impacts.

“The findings are deeply alarming,” said Izidine Pinto, a scientist from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and one of the study’s contributors. He emphasized that prolonged episodes of intense summer rains have now become the “new normal” in countries like Sudan, Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon, and Chad.

Pinto further warned that with each incremental rise in global temperatures, the threat of extreme flooding would continue to grow. He stressed the need for decisive action during the upcoming COP29 climate conference, set to take place in Azerbaijan, urging global leaders to hasten the shift away from fossil fuel dependency.

The devastating floods this year have claimed around 1,500 lives and displaced more than a million people in West and Central Africa, according to reports from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). The deluge also caused dam failures in both Nigeria and Sudan, exacerbating the crisis.

WWA researchers warned that if global temperatures were to increase by 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, these kinds of downpours could become an annual occurrence. Such a temperature rise could potentially be reached as early as the 2050s.

The study also placed special focus on Sudan, where ongoing conflict has displaced millions, forcing many into areas highly vulnerable to flooding. Using climate models, researchers compared present-day weather conditions with a hypothetical world where human-induced climate change did not exist. Their findings showed that extended periods of intense rainfall, particularly in parts of Sudan, had grown significantly heavier due to the effects of global warming.

“Africa has contributed minimally to global carbon emissions, yet it is bearing the brunt of climate-related disasters,” stated Joyce Kimutai, a researcher at Imperial College London’s Centre for Environmental Policy. She further explained that the impact of climate change is being exacerbated by other human-made challenges, such as poor dam maintenance and insufficient investment in early warning systems.

Clair Barnes, also from the Centre for Environmental Policy, echoed these concerns, warning that the situation would continue to deteriorate unless global reliance on fossil fuels is curtailed.

In summary, the research highlights how Africa, despite its limited role in contributing to climate change, faces disproportionate risks. The study underscores the urgency for global climate action to mitigate further damage and protect vulnerable populations from increasingly severe climate-related disasters.