Escalating Conflict: Israeli Strikes on Lebanon Persist as Iran Warns Hezbollah ‘Cannot Stand Alone’

Department of Security and Military Research and Studies 24-09-2024

Israeli forces continued to launch strikes on “alleged” Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah responded with rocket attacks into northern Israel on Tuesday. This came in the wake of intense Israeli air raids that reportedly killed nearly 500 individuals in Lebanon, leading to the displacement of tens of thousands.

Overnight, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for targeting Israeli military sites, including a facility producing explosives located approximately 60 kilometers (35 miles) inside Israel, as well as the Megiddo airfield, which it attacked on three separate occasions.

According to Israeli officials, more than 50 rockets were fired from Lebanon into northern Israel on Tuesday morning, with the majority being intercepted by defense systems.

The escalating violence has raised concerns about the potential for broader conflict, especially involving the United States, Israel’s key ally, and Iran, which supports Hezbollah. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed fears of a regional war, acknowledging that Hezbollah, a group that Iran helped establish in 1983, “cannot stand alone” in a conflict against Israel.

During an interview with CNN, Pezeshkian stated, “Hezbollah cannot face a nation supported and supplied by Western countries, including the U.S. and European nations.”

The European Union’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, described the situation between Israel and Hezbollah as nearing “full-scale war,” citing the rising civilian casualties and increasing intensity of military operations. He made these comments as world leaders gathered in New York for the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly.

Borrell’s warning was mirrored by U.S. officials, who disclosed that Washington was working with its allies on strategies to prevent the conflict from widening. Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts, the violence continues to escalate, with Lebanon witnessing its highest death toll since the country’s civil war in the 1970s.

Israeli authorities have stated that the recent increase in airstrikes is part of a strategy to pressure Hezbollah into agreeing to a diplomatic solution or to cease its attacks. However, many analysts doubt that airstrikes or other military actions will lead to such a resolution. Hezbollah has repeatedly signaled its willingness to stop launching rockets into Israel if a ceasefire is reached in Gaza.

A U.S. official noted, “In recent memory, there has not been a case where an escalation led to de-escalation and stabilization of the situation.”

Following nearly a year of conflict with Hamas in Gaza, Israel has now shifted its focus to its northern border with Lebanon. In the days following Hamas’s October 7 attack, approximately 60,000 residents of northern Israel were evacuated. Ongoing cross-border hostilities have prevented them from returning home.

Israel’s Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, has vowed that airstrikes will continue until residents are able to return. He described Monday’s attacks as a significant turning point in the nearly year-long conflict.

Gallant claimed that Hezbollah had suffered heavy losses, saying, “This week has been the most difficult for Hezbollah since its formation. Our actions have neutralized entire units.”

The Israeli military reported that its strikes targeted various types of Hezbollah weapons, including long-range cruise missiles, short-range rockets, and explosive drones.

Despite Hezbollah’s resilience, there is no denying the significant pressure it faces due to the ongoing Israeli strikes. Hezbollah also suffered considerable losses last week when a series of explosions destroyed thousands of communication devices used by its members, killing 42 and injuring many others. The incident has been widely attributed to Israel, although the Israeli government has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement.

In light of the escalating tensions, the U.S. has announced plans to send a small number of additional troops to the Middle East.

Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati has urged the international community to intervene, accusing Israel of deliberately targeting Lebanese villages and towns. Mikati canceled a cabinet meeting to travel to New York, where he plans to meet with global leaders to seek an end to the violence.

As fighting continues, displaced families in Lebanon have sought refuge in makeshift shelters set up in schools in Beirut and Sidon. With hotels fully booked or unaffordable, many have resorted to sleeping in their cars, public parks, or by the seaside. Some Lebanese citizens have opened their homes to those displaced, and volunteers have set up kitchens to provide meals.

In Baalbek, residents have rushed to buy essential supplies, forming long queues at bakeries and gas stations in anticipation of further conflict.

On the Israeli side, medical facilities have treated several individuals for minor injuries resulting from rocket attacks or accidents while seeking shelter.

President Joe Biden’s administration has called for a diplomatic resolution to the Israel-Lebanon border crisis. In a conversation with Israel’s defense minister on Monday, Biden reiterated the U.S.’s readiness to protect its personnel and warned against any further regional escalation.

Meanwhile, France has requested an urgent UN Security Council meeting, urging all parties to avoid a broader conflict. China has also expressed support for Lebanon, condemning what it described as “indiscriminate attacks on civilians,” according to a statement from its foreign ministry.