Cross-Border Airstrikes Strain Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations

Department of Security and Military Research and Studies 26-12-2024

Islamabad, Pakistan – Pakistan conducted airstrikes in Afghanistan’s Paktika province late Tuesday, targeting alleged hideouts of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), according to security sources. These strikes mark the first cross-border military action by Pakistan since March and follow a surge in attacks by the TTP.

Although there was no official statement from Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs or the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), sources confirmed that the strikes occurred in Barmal, near Pakistan’s South Waziristan district in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.

The interim Afghan government, led by the Taliban, confirmed the attacks but accused Pakistan of targeting civilians. Afghanistan’s Ministry of Defense reported casualties among refugees, including women and children.

“The Pakistani side must understand that such arbitrary measures cannot resolve problems,” Enayatullah Khowarazami, the Afghan defense ministry spokesperson, posted on X. “The Islamic Emirate considers defending its territory an inalienable right and will not leave this act unanswered.”

The airstrikes occurred hours after Pakistan’s Special Representative for Afghanistan, Mohammad Sadiq, met Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in Kabul. Sadiq described the discussions as “wide-ranging,” aiming to enhance bilateral cooperation and regional peace.

Despite these diplomatic efforts, analysts believe the strikes signal further deterioration in Pakistan-Afghanistan relations. Ties have been strained over Pakistan’s allegations that the Afghan Taliban harbor TTP militants responsible for cross-border attacks.

TTP fighters recently claimed responsibility for killing 16 Pakistani soldiers in South Waziristan, one of the deadliest attacks on security forces in recent months. Pakistan asserts that the TTP operates from Afghan sanctuaries, a claim the Afghan Taliban deny.

During a recent United Nations Security Council briefing, Pakistani diplomat Usman Iqbal Jadoon highlighted the TTP’s threat, stating that approximately 6,000 fighters use Afghan territory as a base for operations.

Violence in Pakistan has surged in 2024, with more than 1,500 incidents reported, resulting in 924 deaths, according to the Ministry of Interior. Security forces have launched a military campaign, Azm-e-Istehkam (“Resolve for Stability”), to counter the escalating violence.

Analysts believe the recent strikes are part of this broader campaign. Amir Rana, a security expert from the Pak Institute for Peace Studies, suggests the strikes were likely triggered by last week’s attacks on Pakistani soldiers.

“The military has been debating offensive actions on Afghan soil due to the rising threat. However, these strikes should be part of a comprehensive strategy rather than a reactive measure,” said security analyst Ihsanullah Tipu, co-founder of The Khorasan Diary.

While Afghanistan has vowed retaliation, Tipu warns that the primary response may come from the TTP, which has reportedly discussed revenge attacks.

Analysts highlight the lack of a cohesive Pakistan-Afghanistan strategy as a major obstacle to resolving tensions. Rana notes that cross-border attacks have become a global norm, yet Pakistan’s diplomatic engagement with Afghanistan remains ineffective.

“With decades of involvement in Afghanistan, Pakistan has yet to develop effective dialogue mechanisms with Afghan leaders, regardless of their political affiliations,” Rana observed.

The reappointment of Mohammad Sadiq as Pakistan’s special envoy to Afghanistan initially raised hopes for improved relations. However, the recent strikes are likely to further hinder any progress in bilateral ties, analysts caution.