CIA head warns of ‘misjudgments’ while ‘Israel’-Iran avoid all-out war
Department of Security and Military Research and Studies 08-10-2024
William Burns says efforts to secure a ceasefire deal have been “elusive” even though there have been moments of near success.
CIA chief William Burns stated that the US intelligence community assesses that neither “Israel” nor Iran desires “all-out conflict”, but he highlighted a significant risk of “miscalculations”.
He noted that there is a “very real danger of a further regional escalation of conflict,” as reported by CBS News during a conference in the US. Burns explained that “Israel is weighing very carefully” its response to Iran’s recent attack, but he cautioned that there is potential for “misjudgments”.
On October 1, around 200 Iranian missiles launched from Iran toward the occupied Palestinian territories hit their designated target. The Operation, dubbed True Promise II, was carried out in response to the assassination of Hamas Political Bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh, Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and IRGC’s Deputy Commander for Operations General Abbas Nilforooshan.
The IRGC released a statement following the launch of the response, saying “We have targeted the heart of the occupied territories in response to the assassination of martyrs Haniyeh, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and Nilforooshian.”
Burns said the Middle East is a region where “complicated stuff happens all the time.” He claimed that while the recent Iranian attack highlighted some limitations in Iran’s military capabilities, this does not imply that these capabilities are not still “quite potent and something that not only Israel, but the United States, needs to take very seriously, too.”
Regarding Tehran’s nuclear program, he claimed that it appears to have accelerated but maintained that it that seems Iran has not reversed its decision to suspend the weaponization aspect.
Shifting focus to Gaza, Burns stated that efforts to secure a ceasefire deal have been “elusive” even though there have been moments of near success. He stated that “[w]hat’s at stake in Gaza is shaped by political will,” emphasizing that negotiations involve more than just “brackets in texts or creative formulas.”
He stressed the need for leaders to acknowledge that “enough is enough” and that “perfect is rarely on the menu, especially in the Middle East.” He concluded by highlighting the necessity of making difficult choices and compromises for the sake of longer-term strategic stability.
