Department of Research, Studies and International News 08-02-2025

Imposing tariffs and blocking parcels raise concerns, but opportunities exist

As China-US relations enter a new chapter, experts are cautiously optimistic about the potential for a more stable, predictable relationship.

Sourabh Gupta, a senior fellow at the Institute for China-American Studies in Washington, said it is “good news” that the two countries are “starting out on the right foot”.

“The hope is that the rough-and-ready stability in US-China relations over the last 18 months of the Biden administration can be extended forward during the next 18 months of the Trump administration and much beyond,” Gupta said.

Denis Simon, a nonresident fellow at the Quincy Institute in Washington and senior lecturer in the Asian Pacific Studies Institute at Duke University, also was optimistic.

“Right now, Trump has said a number of things since the election that are not too bad,” Simon said.

Simon pointed out that David Perdue, former US senator from Georgia, who is Trump’s nominee for US ambassador to China, has talked about promoting peace and stability in the Pacific Rim through the bilateral relationship.

However, both experts cautioned that it is important not to look too far ahead.

Since his inauguration last month as the 47th US president, Trump imposed a 10 percent additional tariff on Chinese goods instead of the 60 percent or higher tariff that he floated during his campaign.

Reports from numerous US media outlets also indicated that Trump wanted to visit China, and so far, interactions between the two nations’ leaders have remained positive.

Uncertainty remains

However, as Trump continues to prioritize US dominance in relations with China, such speculation has done little to ease widespread concerns about the uncertainty and challenges facing bilateral relations in the Trump 2.0 era.

For example, speaking at a House GOP conference meeting, Trump called Chinese AI startup DeepSeek’s advancements a “wake-up call” for the US, urging US industries to remain “laser-focused on competing to win” in the global AI race.

Gupta noted that the “not bad” start to the Trump administration in 2017 did not prevent the relationship from deteriorating.

“So, how the two sides start off is not a good indicator of how things will play out in years two, three and four of his administration,” Gupta said.

Trump announced new executive actions to impose new tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China on Feb 1, less than two weeks after his inauguration.

While the Canada and Mexico tariffs were put on hold, the additional tariff on all Chinese products went into effect on Tuesday. China announced a series of additional tariffs against US companies and imports of key products.

Also, the US Postal Service on Tuesday halted all inbound packages from the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong after new tariffs took effect, and a tax exemption for low-value parcels expired. Less than 24 hours later, it reversed the ban without explanation.

Simon said that Trump is “a very transactional person” who may want to make a “big deal” with China.

He cautioned that Trump could get “tough” on China if he doesn’t get his way.

“But right now, I’m hopeful that maybe we might see a moderation of the current tensions to some degree, and things could improve, particularly in the short term, where there’s more communication, more interaction and less focus on sanctions and limitations and more focus on opportunities, particularly in education and joint research,” Simon said.

Both experts agreed that the future of the relationship will depend on whether Trump can find a way to cooperate with China.

“I think that if he could find some magic formula to ease tensions with China, I think that he would want to do that,” Simon said.

He said the two nations can cooperate on issues like illicit fentanyl, transnational crime and global challenges.

“There are many things where both societies will clearly benefit, and we need to make sure that the rewards greatly outweigh any kind of costs that come along,” Simon added.

Both experts expressed hope that the two countries will be able to build trust and confidence.

“Let’s hope for the best … but stay clear-eyed on possible future developments,” Gupta said.

Source China Daily